Nate tha' Great
11-01-2004, 02:47 PM
Just thought this was interesting. FOX news tracking poll:
http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/110104_poll.pdf
October 17-18
Bush 49
Kerry 42
Nader 2
October 27-28
Bush 50
Kerry 45
Nader <1
October 30-31
Kerry 48
Bush 46
Nader 1
FWIW, here's a further snapshot of data from the October 27-28 version of the poll.
Possibly will change vote:
Bush voters: 11%
Kerry voters: 7%
Definitely will vote:
Bush voters: 88%
Kerry voters: 91%
Also, there has been no apparent shift in the number of voters who consider terrorism to the the most important issue in the wake of the Osama video. This number was 24% on Oct 27-28 and 25% in the weekend polling. Also, on October 27-28, respondants believed that Bush was better equipped to handle the war on terror by a margin of 53-37. That margin shrunk (slightly) to 51-39 in weekend polling.
It is clear to me that this election is going to come down to turnout, and the dynamic in individual states, both of which are very hard to determine. However, the movement here does suggest to me that the Osama October Surprise will not create a last-minute push in favor of Bush, as some have anticipated.
http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/110104_poll.pdf
October 17-18
Bush 49
Kerry 42
Nader 2
October 27-28
Bush 50
Kerry 45
Nader <1
October 30-31
Kerry 48
Bush 46
Nader 1
FWIW, here's a further snapshot of data from the October 27-28 version of the poll.
Possibly will change vote:
Bush voters: 11%
Kerry voters: 7%
Definitely will vote:
Bush voters: 88%
Kerry voters: 91%
Also, there has been no apparent shift in the number of voters who consider terrorism to the the most important issue in the wake of the Osama video. This number was 24% on Oct 27-28 and 25% in the weekend polling. Also, on October 27-28, respondants believed that Bush was better equipped to handle the war on terror by a margin of 53-37. That margin shrunk (slightly) to 51-39 in weekend polling.
It is clear to me that this election is going to come down to turnout, and the dynamic in individual states, both of which are very hard to determine. However, the movement here does suggest to me that the Osama October Surprise will not create a last-minute push in favor of Bush, as some have anticipated.