JTs - folded to Hero in CO

[Fat Nicky]

BB is TA-N.

Ultimate Bet 5/10 (8 Players)

Pre-Flop: Hero is CO with 10/images/graemlins/club.gif J/images/graemlins/club.gif
4 folds, Hero raises, Button calls, SB folds, BB calls.
<font color="blue">Pot:6 SB</font>

Flop:<font color="red">(3 players)</font> 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
BB checks, Hero bets, Button folds, BB raises, Hero 3-bets, BB calls.
<font color="blue">Pot:12 SB</font>

Turn:<font color="red">(2 players)</font> 9/images/graemlins/club.gif
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero calls.
<font color="blue">Pot:10 BB</font>

River:<font color="red">(2 players)</font> A/images/graemlins/heart.gif
BB bets, Hero calls.

<font color="blue">Final Pot:12 BB</font>

[adamstewart]

Unfortunately, I think you're definitely beat by the river, maybe even earlier. On one hand this would mean "fold on the river."

On the other hand, the pot is 12 BB's at this point. If you think you can win in this situation more than 1 in 12 times, you should call.

Tough decision.

[Slade Explosivo]

Seems like you may have been on identical hands. i doubt he had you beat on the flop, except unlikely pocket nines. Unless he had the nut flush draw and the turn raise was a bluff...

[slogger]

Tough spot. I think I'd play it like you did, but in looking at the hand more closely, I question whether a fold to the turn raise (or even a river fold - OMG!) is reasonable.

I think it depends a lot on the opponent. Here, BB is TA-N, which, to me, means he's likely to need something reasonable to see the flop (medium-to-large suited connector, pocket pair, suit Ace or perhaps any two paint cards).

Given the flop and turn action, the only feasible pocket pairs you are ahead of are 77 and TT, and those are not too likely, given his level of aggression and your cards, respectively. As far as connectors that he's likely to play this way, you're behind to QJ and KJ, behind and drawing to half the pot against T9 and QT (3 outs to tie vs. QT), and drawing dead (or near-dead) against 98 (2 outs), J9 (1 out to a tie), and Q9 (dead).

I think you would have been re-raised preflop by AKh, AQh, and I don't think his play fits well with either of these holdings, particularly the turn c-r. This leaves an outside chance of AA or KK, against which you obviously have enough outs to call the turn raise.

Ultimately, the question is: with what hands would he checkraise the flop AND turn?

If he's tricky enough to play AA or KK (or a total bluff) this way (have you ever seen him flat call a raise with either of AA or KK?), then you may have the odds call the raise (barely).

The river makes your chances of winning a showdown absurdly low, but you're getting 11-to-1. Is he on a complete bluff more than 1 in every 12 times here?

Sorry for the rambling nature of the post, but I'd liek to hear others comments on folding to the turn raise or folding the river.

[Rubeskies]

[ QUOTE ]
BB is TA-N.

[/ QUOTE ]


This is why you can fold the river.