Check Behind, or Value Bet?

[toby]

UTG is 35%vpip and 13%pfr after 40 hands.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="666666">7 folds</font>, UTG calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls.

River: (6.75 BB) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 6.75 BB

<font color="red">Not sure if a worse hand will call a bet here. His pfr standards are probably not too great. Basic question is in the subject, value bet or take the free showdown?</font>

[Piiop]

Going by only his preflop stats, I would say bet expecting him to have JJ/AQ/AJ/AT/88 enough times to make it for value.

But the preflop stats don't indicate how a player plays postflop. What was his aggression factor? Usually players with high PFR also have high AF and I would've expected him to bet/raise with a K, so you can bet without fear of him calling you with a K. He could also have a high Went to SD% and a low Won@SD which means he'll be calling the river with a lot of 2nd best hands, so again you could bet. He might even call you down with AQ/AJ unimproved. Or he could be special and is actually tight,passive postflop or respects your 3-bet and ihas decided to call down with a K in which case you shouldn't bet.

[toby]

I just checked: WTS is 35% and W$atSD is 45%. Only 70~ hands at this point. How does this affect your river play?

Results in white: <font color="white"> He had AJo, MHIG. Nice read again. </font>

[brettbrettr]

I'd definitely bet this. With 70 hands, can you really base your decision on his numbers? With that few I'm more likely to go the "I'll bet til I have reason to stop" logic. I could be wrong, but he hasn't shown one ounce of stregnth, so I bet.

[Piiop]

[ QUOTE ]
I just checked: WTS is 35% and W$atSD is 45%. Only 70~ hands at this point. How does this affect your river play?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would still bet. His stats aren't abnormal, but I would've expected to hear from a K by now. His looseness and W$atSD suggest he will call with 2nd best hands too often.

[WSOP Bound]

I think you win more than 14% of the time that throwing in another bet would require to be profitable. Your opponent may have a lower PP or a busted draw. You opponent called you down the whole way. The only hand that beats you that I see being played that would be a Kx. That just wouldn't make any sense with the preflop action. I'd bet and expect a call with JJ or lower.