Howard's play last night in the PSI

[Easy E]

I only saw a few hands here, but the back-to-back suckouts for big pots, both with runner-runner flushes (though the first didn't matter) was something else.

I was more surprised at the second one, when he reraised Chip all-in with only TPTK and backdoor weak flush.

[shaniac]

I doubt the backdoor flush draw was high on his mind, but your assertion that reraising a wily, agressive player like Reese in a shorthanded game with "only TPTK" seems a little nearsighted.

Chip showed no signs of strentgh preflop so I don't think Howard is likely to suspect an overpair, much less top set when he gets check-raised. Could Chip be raising with a lot less than top set here? I think so. How about any ten, a flush draw, a pair of 9s or 8s. TPTK must have looked pretty sweet to Lederer.

I think it was completely natural and logical for all the money to go in on this flop. Chip trapped well and Howard had a hand that allowed him to get trapped: bad luck for Howard that the flop came ten high and very bad luck for Chip that the 4th heart hit the river. I don't think there's any other story here.

Shane

[curtains]

IMO the most interesting hand was when Howard pushed allin with 77 after a raise <Chip Reese> and a reraiser <Barry Greenstein> (who looked pretty pot committed).

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
I only saw a few hands here, but the back-to-back suckouts for big pots, both with runner-runner flushes (though the first didn't matter) was something else.

I was more surprised at the second one, when he reraised Chip all-in with only TPTK and backdoor weak flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's 3 handed, and he's got enough chips to cover TJ by 3:1 if he loses. 3 handed, AT on a T high board is a monster against Chip.
It was just bad luck for Howard that the case ten came on the flop without a J, Q, or K to allow him to not lose so many chips.
Then, of course, it's bad luck for Chip (who played the hand perfectly, I must say) that Howard sucked out with his 6% out.

Pretty standard, really.

[amoeba]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I only saw a few hands here, but the back-to-back suckouts for big pots, both with runner-runner flushes (though the first didn't matter) was something else.

I was more surprised at the second one, when he reraised Chip all-in with only TPTK and backdoor weak flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's 3 handed, and he's got enough chips to cover TJ by 3:1 if he loses. 3 handed, AT on a T high board is a monster against Chip.
It was just bad luck for Howard that the case ten came on the flop without a J, Q, or K to allow him to not lose so many chips.
Then, of course, it's bad luck for Chip (who played the hand perfectly, I must say) that Howard sucked out with his 6% out.

Pretty standard, really.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think howard only had 4% as not all the flush outs were good. I'm not sure how much runner runner AA figures in to this but I suspect not much.

[curtains]

Top pair top kicker is a monster there. If he folded it'd be a VERY impressive laydown.

(Although honestly I hate some laydowns even when we know the opponent has a better hand - case in point was this guy who folded JJ against Oppenheimer in the Foxwoods WPT event. It turned out that Oppenheimer had AA, but I still think it was terribly played and was a terrible fold.)

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
If he folded it'd be a VERY impressive laydown.

[/ QUOTE ]

It would be a pretty bad laydown considering the range of hands that Chip could have there.

[Cooker]

All the flush outs were good. There was no way runner runner flush could have paired the board since the only non-/images/graemlins/heart.gif board card at the flop was the 10 and all the tens were accounted for (the ten of hearts was in Howards hand which is why he won). 4.16% is correct for the back door flush draw, and the runner AA would be .3% leaving a rounded percent at 4% (4.46 still rounds down) for Howard to win. At least I think this is correct, I would appreciate any corrections if I am wrong.

[curtains]

Yes, hence my following paragraph. But there are situations where even though a laydown is technically incorrect, you sometimes have to give the player credit for making an amazing read.

[curtains]

I'll bet you a lot of money that Howard didn't even consider that he had a backdoor flush draw when he made his decision.

[SossMan]

I just put it into twodimes. It's about 5% depending on TJs cards. I said 6% because that's what FSN had. Whatever, he clearly didn't think he was drawing.

[Vince Lepore]

[ QUOTE ]
How about any ten, a flush draw, a pair of 9s or 8s

[/ QUOTE ]

Chip Reese check-raised Howard Lederers 100k bet to 300k and kept 200k behind. Chip made a raise that he wanted Howard to call or reraise. there is no way Chip had a weak holding. If Chip had a flush draw and decided to check raise Howard, he would have either check raised all in or moved in off the bat. No way he had a flush draw. Same is true for a any T or J,J, Q,Q. His milking check raise indicated a big hand.

Vince

[lastchance]

You don't think Chip Reese could make a check-raise post oak bluff here, especially against a guy who's thinking as high a level as Chip Resse is?
Daniel Negreanu doing exactly what I'm saying. (http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_magazine/archives/showarticle.php?a_id=14324)

Against an ABC poker player, you know you got to fold. Against Chip Reese, I think that decision is a lot harder.