two pair vs a 4 flush?

6/12 stud, I have a pair of 2’s in the hole with a 10 up, 10’s and 2’s all live. I call the $2 bring in as do 5 other players. 4th street I get a 10 to give me 2 pair and high hand. I bet the max, $12 on my pair and get one caller, with 2 low diamonds, so I have to think he’s on a flush draw. His diamonds are live (I have one in the hole).


5th no help for me or him, I bet again and he calls. 6th street and he gets another diamond. I check and call. River misses me and I check call to loss to a flush.


Miss plays on my part? I guess I could have saved $24 by folding when he got his third diamond. Was I wrong to call 6th and 7th?

So if I read it right, then after fifth street there's $60 in the pot, right? When he hits his diamond and bets sixth street, you can get a reasonably close approximation of what's going on by just assuming he'll bet the river regardless. So you have to decide whether you're willing to risk $24 against winning $84.


To a first approximation, that means he needs to be bluffing

more than 2/9 of the time for the call to be profitable.


Sure, you need to throw in some other adjustments:


- you've got a 1/9 chance of making a full house on the river (assuming you've seen sixteen cards so far) and you may get two bets out of him


- he may be bluffing with a four-flush and then he hits it on the river.


- he may have had a small pocket pair and that third diamond made him a set


- you didn't say what all his cards were, but maybe he made a small four-straight to go with his four-flush, or two small pairs to go with his four-flush


- he may check the river


...but I'll bet when you lump that all together, you should still call if he does not yet have you beat 20% of the time or more.


I don't know what the players in your 6/12 stud game are like. But if I were in this situation with a totally unknown opponent, I'd grit my teeth and call the turn and river. I think there's at least a 20% chance that he's either on the automatic "must bet when I have three sooted cards" (semi-)bluff or that he thinks/hopes I'm only on the pair of tens and will fold.


--JMike

The pot is not big enough to call with teh hope of making a fullhouse, so the real question is whether he was bluffing. In this situation it is better to bet than it is to check and call against most players. If he does not have the flush he will be glad to take a free card, and if you are beat then he will likely raise, allowing you to fold.


Against a tough player, and most 6-12 players are not, the check call is better since he will bet when you check no matter what you have, and will likely do soon the river as well. Also a tough player may semibluff raise in this situation, especially if he has a pair.


if you bet and he raised you would feel better about folding and would have saved a bet.


Pat

Dear Player,

Once you bet or call a bet on 5th. St.,you generally should call all the way with two pairs. I would have played it exactly like you .


Sitting Bull

I think I agree. I don't like checking and calling. It's just asking someone to take the pot away from me. Bet out on 6th Street. If the guy raises right here, against a paired door card, I may call, but I'll give him the flush and muck on the river. The cost is no different from checking and calling both streets. Also, if I hit, I pick up an extra bet.


Tom D

I cannot see betting and folding for a raise on 6th. You are 30-4 to improve and if you bet and had gotten raised you are now getting about 9-1 to call, not to mention you get two bets in on the river if you improve.


Also if you check you ARE getting odds to call for a full house if you think you can win 2 bets on the river if you improve

you are getting about 6-1 if you check and call.


It is possible that he has a straight draw and is now only representing flush. I think checking and calling is the best way to go, and checkraiseing the river if you boat up. The odds you have the best hand plus the chance you can out draw him I think make folding on 6th or 7th incorrect.

I wouldnt fold either. But i do believe that if you believe you should fold you should bet first and onlt fold if raised. Calling is very marginal if he has a made hand since you need to get two bets on the river to make it profitable, and it is only very slightly profitable. I would call for the reasons you stated, especially the possibility that he does not have a made hand, but if you are sure that he has a flush or a flush draw you should bet and not check, since if he only has a draw you will have given a potentially devastating free card,so checking and calling is, in my mind, almost out of the question.


Pat

I see maybe checking and calling is weak, because you are giving a free card. But here I think the free card isn't so disastrous. I thought if you are a small favorite or big underdog you are supposed to check and call on 6th. He isn't going to fold if you bet. But if you check he will pbly bet even if he doesn't have the flush.


And again I think betting and folding to a raise is insane because he a) may raise w/o having a flush (not impossible) b)

you definitely have odds to call at least one more bet on 6th to boat. (you have the odds to call for the boat even w/o the implied odds).


Just because you are little shy of the odds to improve to a boat doesn't mean you should fold because he may not have what he is representing. I thought the combined chances that he doesn't have it (and doesn't make it) plus the chance you improve dictate not laying this hand down.

Dear Suspicious

I agree with you 100%.


Sitting Bull

I don't think the guy had a stright draw to go with his flush draw. I also think that if I had bet 6th street, I would have been raised, at least to represent a flush (he was the 1st player to call my complete bet on 4th, he may not have if he everyone else was going to fold).


I would have bet 6th if not for his 3rd diamond and check called the river anyway, so I think I played this right.

I think you played it right since the 10's and 2's remained live. There was enough $ in there that it was correct for you to chase in hopes of re-drawing out on him by catching a full-house. In which case if you did you could probably have gotten 2 bets out of him on ther river by checkraising. I however would have only called his 6th street bet, and not the river without making a full boat.