Fold set of Jacks in this situation? [Archive]

mephisto2000

10-31-2004, 08:12 PM

What I know: Fish and Maniac are 70+% VP$IP, Maniac is 30% PFR. Maniac raised pre-flop with hands such as 66 or 76s. Should I have folded the river when a straight was very likely?

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. MP3 posts a blind of $0.75.
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, MP1 (Fish) calls, MP2 calls, MP3 (poster) checks, CO folds, Hero calls, SB (Maniac) raises, BB calls, UTG calls, MP1 (Fish) calls, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif (6 players)
Maniac bets, BB calls, UTG folds, Fish raises, MP2 calls, Hero 3-bets, Maniac calls, BB folds, Fish caps, MP2 calls, Hero calls, Maniac calls.

Turn: (15.25 BB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 players)
Maniac bets, Fish raises, MP2 calls, Hero 3-bets, Maniac calls, Fish caps, MP2 calls, Hero calls, Maniac calls.

River: (31.25 BB) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players)
Maniac bets, Fish raises, MP2 folds, Hero calls, Maniac 3-bets, Fish caps, Hero calls, Maniac calls.

Final Pot: 43.25 BB
Main Pot: 43.25 BB, between Fish, Hero and Maniac.

Wada

10-31-2004, 08:19 PM

No, I would not have folded this. Judging from how they were playing on the flop, it would be very unlikely that they bet/raised a straight on the turn or river. Especially when you said that they are a maniac and a fish. Their betting patterns were the same on the flop as they were on the turn. The pot was too huge to fold on the river. A fish calls with anything and a maniac raises with anything, most of the time. They could have had anything.

Douglas Leslie

10-31-2004, 08:27 PM

Is it really likely that two opponents were betting so aggressively before the river with just a straight draw? I think that the Maniac has something like J10 since he only called your three bet after the flop and turn, but came to life on the river. The Fish probably has a made hand of some description, but it is more likely to be a lower set than a straight since there is no logical explanation for his aggressive betting with any hand containing an 8. I think you are still ahead by the river and should certainly not be folding. No doubt I am about to be proved wrong however.

LuckyStrike

10-31-2004, 10:02 PM

You can't fold the river, in my opinion. Your opponents have been going at it with you since the flop, so I don't think I'd give them credit for a straight on the river. I would guess AJ, two pair, or lower sets are possible holdings.

Also, how come you didn't raise preflop?

PhatPots

10-31-2004, 11:48 PM

First of all you should have raised that preflop. Or you should have 3 bet it when it got back to you.
On the River, well you have to call it. Once the pot is that size. Unfortunately, you got caught up in a raising war. One of them can have the straight, but the times that someone doesn't have a straight will make up for it, because the pot has gotten so large. I would say, the way you describe these players, u have no choice but to call it.

mephisto2000

11-01-2004, 12:48 AM

I didn't raise preflop because there were already 4 callers in front of me plus maniac behind me who would most certainly call anything. Any AKQ on the flop and my Jacks are beaten because once one of these callers has a pair they don't fold.

Result: Fish shows 9d Kh (one pair, nines) and Manic shows 7d 8d (straight, jack high). I do now understand how Fish could twice each raise the flop and turn with middle pair. I suppose he and Maniac were onto each other.

afk

11-01-2004, 12:51 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't raise preflop because there were already 4 callers in front of me plus maniac behind me who would most certainly call anything.

[/ QUOTE ]

Those are all good reasons for raising preflop. You have the 4th best hand in the game. If they call anything, they've usually limped in with anything, you can't afford to forgo that pot equity edge before the flop. Raise, and it's not even close.

Entity

11-01-2004, 02:34 AM

Sorry about the loss. You really need to raise this preflop, though; it seems like you've got a mental attitude toward the game that you might want to look into. Not raising JJ because there are 4 players already in the pot is terrible, and is one of the hallmarks of weak-tightness. It's certainly worth looking into.

Rob

Douglas Leslie

11-01-2004, 03:23 AM

Wow, that was some maniac if he was willing to do all that betting with a gutshot straight draw. As for raising pre-flop, is the theory not that you should only raise JJ if it will restrict the number of opponents or if you expect to have at least five opponents in the pot, when the pot odds are in your favour? With a maniac still to act behind him, I don't think that just calling the flop is necessarily a mistake. The problem with JJ is that it might be the fourth best hand on paper, but with several opponents it is seldom going to hold up and it is rarely going to improve if you miss the flop.

LuckyStrike

11-01-2004, 04:09 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Wow, that was some maniac if he was willing to do all that betting with a gutshot straight draw. As for raising pre-flop, is the theory not that you should only raise JJ if it will restrict the number of opponents or if you expect to have at least five opponents in the pot, when the pot odds are in your favour? With a maniac still to act behind him, I don't think that just calling the flop is necessarily a mistake. The problem with JJ is that it might be the fourth best hand on paper, but with several opponents it is seldom going to hold up and it is rarely going to improve if you miss the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wrong. JJ is a huge hand. Yeah, it sometimes seems like it gets busted by overcards a lot, but you will win way more bets than you will lose with it over time. I'd actually be very happy if a maniac re-raised my jacks in that situation and I would cap without hesitation. JJ is almost always an automatic raise preflop. "JJ is a strong hand but they always call with garbage and crack it" is very much weak-tight thinking.

EDIT: err, you're talking about preflop in your post, right? Hero has the stone cold nuts on the flop and his opponents obviously like their hands.

Douglas Leslie

11-01-2004, 04:24 AM

Ok, so you raise your JJ and have four opponents. An A, K or Q flops. An opponent bets.What do you do now? Or your opponents check and two call when you bet- what now? JJ is a hand that can cost you a ton of money if several opponents stay in for the flop and at least one of them keeps betting/calling. If you are going to throw it away when an overcard flops, why did you raise in the first place? I'm not saying that you should never raise JJ, but just suggesting that it is by no means automatic. On reflection on the current hand there is a case for raising if you think the maniac will raise behind you since this might knock out some of your opponents.

LuckyStrike

11-01-2004, 04:48 AM

You're only thinking about the worst case scenario. A favorable flop with JJ (ie. all undercards) occurs frequently too. Depending on my position, the other cards on the board, and my reads on the other players I would probably raise a flop with one overcard. You can't be running scared all the time and microlimit players just love to make nonsensical bets on the flop in my experience. If I lead out and I get a couple of callers, then I keep on gunning. Calling stations may passively play top pair, but they'll also call down with middle and bottom pair.

When there are tons of limpers to you on the button and you're holding JJ, chances are likely that you're way ahead. Your equity in the hand is huge at that point. It is an absolute, 100% must raise.

JJ is a troubling hand and I struggle with it a bit post-flop, but it's still a winning hand for me and I stand by my comments that it's an automatic raise in that situation.

77rules

11-01-2004, 06:16 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, so you raise your JJ and have four opponents. An A, K or Q flops. An opponent bets.What do you do now?

[/ QUOTE ]If you raise pre flop, there's multiway pot, an overcard flops and somebody bets into you, you should usually fold. Especially if there's one or more callers before you and the overcard is an Ace. Depending on the table, I might consider raising if the overcard is a K or Q. If it was heads up, raising is automatic even with an A on the flop.

[ QUOTE ]
Or your opponents check and two call when you bet- what now?

[/ QUOTE ]Check and fold on the turn.

This still doesn't mean you should limp with JJ. You can't wait for the absolute nuts to bet. Forget the results of one particular hand - it's what happens if you play JJ in a thousand hands that matter. My guess is that if you play JJ in this spot a thousand times, you'll be a winner, and the more you raise pre flop, the more of a winner you are.

JJ is a strong hand, only three hands out there beat it. If you don't bet your strong hands, what do you bet? Do you wait for AA? What happens when your red aces hit a spade flop, and somebody bets into you?

LuckyStrike

11-01-2004, 06:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Or your opponents check and two call when you bet- what now?

[/ QUOTE ]Check and fold on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

I strongly disagree with this. We're in the microlimits; many people will call with any piece of the flop. Keep pushing until someone pushes back. If no one raised your flop bet, they probably didn't pair the overcard and you are winning. If you're going to bet the flop but check/fold on the turn, what is the point of betting, then? There's almost no way you're going to take down a multiway pot on the flop at this level.

77rules

11-01-2004, 07:03 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I strongly disagree with this. We're in the microlimits; many people will call with any piece of the flop. Keep pushing until someone pushes back. If no one raised your flop bet, they probably didn't pair the overcard and you are winning. If you're going to bet the flop but check/fold on the turn, what is the point of betting, then? There's almost no way you're going to take down a multiway pot on the flop at this level.

[/ QUOTE ]
The reason I check fold on the turn is, I've started to see a lot of delayed C/R on Paradise 0.50/1 lately. Call the flop with top pair, then bet out on the turn. Sometimes it's just a maniac, but barring that read, they've seen me raise pre flop and bet out on the flop. They're not bluffing often enough to make a call profitable.

Also, and I should have spelled this out, there's a huge difference if the overcard is an A or K/Q. With an A as an overcard to my pair, I'll almost always fold to a turn bet since so many people will play any Ax from any position.

Fiddler

11-01-2004, 07:07 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't raise preflop because there were already 4 callers in front of me plus maniac behind me who would most certainly call anything. Any AKQ on the flop and my Jacks are beaten because once one of these callers has a pair they don't fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

It is not illegal to fold a hand you raised pre-flop if you think you are behind after the flop, you should be able to do this without feeling bad about it. But JJ will win much more often than 17% of the time so a pre-flop raise is for value.

LuckyStrike

11-01-2004, 07:11 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I strongly disagree with this. We're in the microlimits; many people will call with any piece of the flop. Keep pushing until someone pushes back. If no one raised your flop bet, they probably didn't pair the overcard and you are winning. If you're going to bet the flop but check/fold on the turn, what is the point of betting, then? There's almost no way you're going to take down a multiway pot on the flop at this level.

[/ QUOTE ]
The reason I check fold on the turn is, I've started to see a lot of delayed C/R on Paradise 0.50/1 lately. Call the flop with top pair, then bet out on the turn. Sometimes it's just a maniac, but barring that read, they've seen me raise pre flop and bet out on the flop. They're not bluffing often enough to make a call profitable.

Also, and I should have spelled this out, there's a huge difference if the overcard is an A or K/Q. With an A as an overcard to my pair, I'll almost always fold to a turn bet since so many people will play any Ax from any position.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why not bet and fold to a raise instead? If you check, you are inviting a bet from a player with middle or bottom pair and you'll have to fold according to the plan, resulting in you sometimes (often?) folding the winner. I think betting but planning to fold to a raise is the better move here (assuming the pot is smallish). Players holding middle or lower pair or nothing at all won't raise you. If you get raised, you can fairly safely fold, but if you check/fold I think you'll be losing out on a lot of bets.

I agree with you about the difference in overcards. An A is very scary, but I am usually pretty confident in having the best hand when a Q falls.

chesspain

11-01-2004, 07:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't raise preflop because there were already 4 callers in front of me plus maniac behind me who would most certainly call anything. Any AKQ on the flop and my Jacks are beaten because once one of these callers has a pair they don't fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's Halloween and all of the good little boys and girls are getting reeeeaaaaalllllyyyy scared. /images/graemlins/ooo.gif

afk

11-01-2004, 09:15 AM

[ QUOTE ]
The problem with JJ is that it might be the fourth best hand on paper, but with several opponents it is seldom going to hold up and it is rarely going to improve if you miss the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're too focused on winning the pot and not focused enough on winning money. JJ will hold up more than it's fair share against 4 opponents, and you're right, if you flop overcards then you could be in trouble. But the times that it does hold up (which is often enough with 4 opponents) makes up for the times it doesn't. Raise preflop. Make those guys limping with K5s and Q7s pay two bets.

mephisto2000

11-01-2004, 11:18 AM

Thanks for all the input. In reflection I agree that I should have raised the flop. If Maniac 3-bets behind me it's 2 cold to the 4 limpers which might thin the field or add more value to the pot.

Yads

11-01-2004, 01:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for all the input. In reflection I agree that I should have raised the flop. If Maniac 3-bets behind me it's 2 cold to the 4 limpers which might thin the field or add more value to the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactomundo.

WSOP Bound

11-01-2004, 01:50 PM

Actually, I don't think you should forget this one hand in considering wether JJ should be raised preflop. This hand shows perfectly why you should do it. If Hero had raised preflop than even a maniac would likely have dropped a hand as bad as 78o. Yes your hand is vulnerable, but JJ holds up much better against small fields. Raise and HOPE for a reraise from the maniac to cut down the field. With a holding like JJ you want to isolate him here. Save the limping for your drawing hands like Axs or suited connectors where you want a multiway pot.

Douglas Leslie

11-01-2004, 01:52 PM

Your flop will be just as favourable if you limped in as opposed to a raise. Don't get me wrong. I raise JJ more often than not, but what I want to avoid is playing in a raised pot against three or four opponents. I don't think that the extra bet is worth it unless you either have five opponents or restrict their number to one or two. It's not a question of whether JJ is a good hand- it is. The question is whether you should raise in all situations with it, and I don't think that you should. The hand in this thread is one where you should raise since you know that the maniac will probably bet and, better still, maybe re-raise, thereby knocking out some of the competition with any luck.

afk

11-01-2004, 02:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Your flop will be just as favourable if you limped in as opposed to a raise. Don't get me wrong. I raise JJ more often than not, but what I want to avoid is playing in a raised pot against three or four opponents.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're only raising JJ more often than not, you're probably not raising it enough. You're also completely ignoring what these loose players are limping in preflop with compared to your JJ. You cannot pass up this preflop edge.

srt19170

11-01-2004, 04:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]

I raise JJ more often than not, but what I want to avoid is playing in a raised pot against three or four opponents.

[/ QUOTE ]

Would you raise JJ against a single player HU?

Why? Because you have a significant edge against him. That's a raise for value.

If you can raise for value against a single opponent, then you should do so against any number of opponents, because you have that same edge against each of them.

-- Scott

Douglas Leslie

11-01-2004, 05:58 PM

I would be happy to play HU against a single opponent with JJ. Once the number of opponents increases, the chances of JJ standing up decrease significantly. The real question is whether, if you raise against four opponents, you will win more than one time in four against them. If the answer is that you will not ( and an earlier posting suggests your success rate is likely to be 17%), then the raise before the flop is mathematically incorrect. The more opponents who are in the hand, the greater the likelihood that your hand is going to be second best. It is worth raising against a large number of opponents because you are getting the right pot odds to do it. Against three or four opponents I doubt whether that is the case.

afk

11-01-2004, 06:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The real question is whether, if you raise against four opponents, you will win more than one time in four against them. If the answer is that you will not ( and an earlier posting suggests your success rate is likely to be 17%), then the raise before the flop is mathematically incorrect.

[/ QUOTE ]

You aren't considering the fact that the aggression of raising alone can increase your chances of winning the pot. Sure, in a hot and cold simulation you might not win enough to justify it (though I don't have the math to back that up), but hot and cold simulations don't take into account players types - and they assume everyone goes to the showdown. Your preflop aggression will usually increase your chances of winning the pot after the flop.

srt19170

11-01-2004, 08:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I would be happy to play HU against a single opponent with JJ. Once the number of opponents increases, the chances of JJ standing up decrease significantly. The real question is whether, if you raise against four opponents, you will win more than one time in four against them.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm. My original statement was wrong, although it is close:

To make things simple, let's say that with JJ you win 60% of the time against a single opponent HU. And lets worry only about the preflop betting. We'll assume you always bet 1 SB.

Then your expectation playing HU is .60 * 1 = +.60 SB.

Now suppose you play 4 players with JJ. You can think of this as playing each of them HU, and have to beat them all simultaneously. So your chance of winning a hand is:

.60 * .60 * .60 * .60 = .1296

and you win 4 SB when you win, so your expectation is +.52SB. In reality, your odds to beat four players simultaneously aren't independent (a hand good enough to beat one will usually beat the others as well), so I'd guess that you'll actually win more like 15-20% of the hands, at which point you'd be making significantly more than HU.

(The flaw in your "win 25% of the hands" argument is that you aren't winning 100% of the hands HU.)

I think in general if you have a significant edge against 1 player, the additional money additional people put into the pot makes up for the reduced number of times you'll win the hand.

-- Scott

Aaron W.

11-01-2004, 08:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Now suppose you play 4 players with JJ. You can think of this as playing each of them HU, and have to beat them all simultaneously. So your chance of winning a hand is:

.60 * .60 * .60 * .60 = .1296

[/ QUOTE ]

First, your conclusion is correct.

But this reasoning is completely flawed. The probability of beating three players is not the same as the probability of beating one player twice in a row. In fact, it's not even close to that because those two situations are extremely different.

Run some simulations at http://www.twodimes.net/poker. You'll find that JJ beats a heck of a lot of situations, even in some rather extreme cases. You're getting more than your 25% almost every time against three opponents, and I suspect it's still similar against 4. (If I'm wrong, then show some examples.)

Against 3 "generic" opponents:
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=585885
pokenum -h js jc - 2c 2s - as 3s - tc 9d
Holdem Hi: 1086008 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Js Jc 487533 44.89 594745 54.76 3730 0.34 0.450
2s 2c 171455 15.79 910823 83.87 3730 0.34 0.159
As 3s 270505 24.91 811773 74.75 3730 0.34 0.250
Tc 9d 152785 14.07 929493 85.59 3730 0.34 0.142

Another example with three generic opponents with better hand selection:
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=585889
pokenum -h js jc - 2c 2s - ad ts - qc 8c
Holdem Hi: 1086008 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Js Jc 416426 38.34 666178 61.34 3404 0.31 0.384
2s 2c 185835 17.11 896769 82.57 3404 0.31 0.172
Ts Ad 230395 21.21 852209 78.47 3404 0.31 0.213
Qc 8c 249948 23.02 832656 76.67 3404 0.31 0.231

Against 3 opponents with *ALL* overcards beating you:
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=585875
pokenum -h js jc - qh th - ac 3s - 4d kd
Holdem Hi: 1086008 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Js Jc 314850 28.99 769187 70.83 1971 0.18 0.290
Qh Th 258695 23.82 825342 76.00 1971 0.18 0.239
3s Ac 234588 21.60 849449 78.22 1971 0.18 0.216
Kd 4d 275904 25.41 808133 74.41 1971 0.18 0.255

Even when ALL OVERCARD HURT and everyone else is SUITED and DOMINATING you in suits:
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=585878
pokenum -h js jc - qh th - as 3s - 4c kc
Holdem Hi: 1086008 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Js Jc 300414 27.66 782437 72.05 3157 0.29 0.277
Qh Th 249816 23.00 833035 76.71 3157 0.29 0.231
As 3s 284633 26.21 798218 73.50 3157 0.29 0.263
Kc 4c 247988 22.83 834863 76.87 3157 0.29 0.229

Even in these scenarios (the last two are extreme to prove a point), you're getting more than your 25%. In fact, you basically need to have an overpair out there for you to lose your equity.

That's how strong JJ is preflop.

srt19170

11-02-2004, 04:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]

First, your conclusion is correct.

But this reasoning is completely flawed. The probability of beating three players is not the same as the probability of beating one player [three times] in a row.

[/ QUOTE ]

True, because your results in the multi-way hand are not independent.

As I said in my post.

Perhaps it would be clearer to phrase it this way: "Your expectation in an N-way hand will never be worse than your expectation in N sequential HU hands."

Although I'd have to think about it to decide whether I really believe that.

-- Scott

Aaron W.

11-02-2004, 07:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
As I said in my post.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's what you had said:

[ QUOTE ]
Now suppose you play 4 players with JJ. You can think of this as playing each of them HU, and have to beat them all simultaneously. So your chance of winning a hand is:

.60 * .60 * .60 * .60 = .1296

and you win 4 SB when you win, so your expectation is +.52SB. In reality, your odds to beat four players simultaneously aren't independent (a hand good enough to beat one will usually beat the others as well), so I'd guess that you'll actually win more like 15-20% of the hands , at which point you'd be making significantly more than HU.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is what's really bad about the analysis and why I responded with all those simulations. You can't even use this "independent estimate" number as a starting point for anything at all(!) in multiway pots. The only thing to do is to run hot/cold simulations as a starting point for preflop strength.

chill

11-03-2004, 06:46 AM

srt19170 can play at my table any time!

Raising JJ in this situation is AUTOMATIC and his reasoning against raising is INSANE and shows a fundamental misunderstanding of the math involved. For example, AKs beats one random hand 67% of the time. Using srt's method, it has a (67%^9) 2.7% chance of winning at a full table, which is ridiculous; the actual value is more than 21%. Similarly, srt's estimate of 13% to win with Jacks 5-way is way offbase compared to the actual value which is about 40%. You have an EV of +1.0 on new money raising with Jacks, but srt has calculated that your EV is -.35. This is a HUGE difference and results in incorrect play. Add in the fact that you are on the BUTTON and your preflop EV for this hand goes through the roof!

Mephisto seems to be working under the assumption that any overcard on the flop instantly nukes your hand and you cannot win. This is of course not true, but even if it were, you get an underboard 43% of the time! 43%! Let's examine a few of the things that can happen when you see a flop:

2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif9 /images/graemlins/club.gif. Sweet! The perfect flop! Now you DEFINITELY wish you had raised (for value) as you now hold an extremely good hand. You also wish you had raised to show strength because you have been put into a position where you need to protect yourself from singleton Queens, Kings, and Aces which (surprise!) is much harder to do without having raised. Looks like you really screwed the pooch on this one.

7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif9 /images/graemlins/heart.gifQ /images/graemlins/club.gif. Hmmm, not as good. But all hope is not lost, you have the button! I don't have numbers, but it wouldn't surprise me if you are +EV on NEW money from this flop and position. It's about close to even either way, and this is IGNORING the medium-sized pot a preflop raise will generate. If it's bet-raised to you you can happily fold. If it's checked to you and no one has a Queen a bet may win you that medium pot immediately. If it does not, you have thinned the field and are up against hands worse than yours. If you had not preflop raised you have a much smaller chance of winning a much smaller pot, sweet deal! Remember that even if an overcard falls it's possible no one hit it, and if that does happen you have a very good chance to win the pot because the table thinks you have paired the overcard. Worst case scenario is that you get check-called on all 3 streets by a low Queen. It happens but is not that common because A) mathematically it is unlikely someone has Q-low in 4 hands, B) they may fold Q-low in this situation, and C) you may spike a Jack on the turn or river. Even though this isn't an ideal flop, a preflop raise alters the size of the pot and your chance of winning it such that even with the overcard flop you are in a much better position having raised to get there. This advantage is worth one small bet.

9 /images/graemlins/heart.gifK /images/graemlins/heart.gifA /images/graemlins/heart.gif. Oh well, I guess you lost fifty cents. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

You shouldn't be so nervous to raise before the flop. If you don't raise JJ here I would guess you almost never raise preflop or vastly misvalue a pair of Jacks. Remember the old addage, you would rather have 3 opponents paying 2 bets than 6 paying 1.

bergh

11-03-2004, 07:37 AM

Yes, there are a lot of hands that beats you, but most of them contains eights. Not many eights would survive the flop and turn action (and if they would, any hand would - so in that case you are still the favorite!). You should raise the river to make sure it gets capped! Folding is out of the question!

More importantly. You should raise or limp-reraise JJ pre-flop. If the maniac raises that much you have to punish him when you have the edge!

srt19170

11-03-2004, 10:23 AM

[ QUOTE ]

srt19170 can play at my table any time!

Raising JJ in this situation is AUTOMATIC and his reasoning against raising is INSANE and shows a fundamental misunderstanding of the math involved.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, it's true I'm INSANE but go back and read my post. I'm saying that raising is AUTOMATIC.

-- Scott

srt19170

11-03-2004, 10:26 AM

[ QUOTE ]

You can't even use this "independent estimate" number as a starting point for anything at all(!) in multiway pots. The only thing to do is to run hot/cold simulations as a starting point for preflop strength.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't understand the math.

The independent estimate provides a lower bound on estimating your chance to win. Which is how I used it.

-- Scott

TheHip41

11-03-2004, 02:34 PM

Why in god's name did you not raise preflop, on the button, after 5 limpers with JJ?

This is a horrible play.

TheHip41

11-03-2004, 02:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't raise preflop because there were already 4 callers in front of me plus maniac behind me who would most certainly call anything. Any AKQ on the flop and my Jacks are beaten because once one of these callers has a pair they don't fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey guys, this is why Party is so beatable. Don't be weak.

I assume when you don' raise AA preflop, it's because you fear someone with 74o will spike trips and you will lose more money?

TheHip41

11-03-2004, 02:39 PM

TheHip41

11-03-2004, 02:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, so you raise your JJ and have four opponents. An A, K or Q flops. An opponent bets.What do you do now? Or your opponents check and two call when you bet- what now? JJ is a hand that can cost you a ton of money if several opponents stay in for the flop and at least one of them keeps betting/calling. If you are going to throw it away when an overcard flops, why did you raise in the first place? I'm not saying that you should never raise JJ, but just suggesting that it is by no means automatic. On reflection on the current hand there is a case for raising if you think the maniac will raise behind you since this might knock out some of your opponents.

[/ QUOTE ]

WEAK ALERT.

When you raise preflop, and the flop is Kxx, you need to play poker and figure it out.

TheHip41

11-03-2004, 02:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Your flop will be just as favourable if you limped in as opposed to a raise. Don't get me wrong. I raise JJ more often than not, but what I want to avoid is playing in a raised pot against three or four opponents. I don't think that the extra bet is worth it unless you either have five opponents or restrict their number to one or two. It's not a question of whether JJ is a good hand- it is. The question is whether you should raise in all situations with it, and I don't think that you should. The hand in this thread is one where you should raise since you know that the maniac will probably bet and, better still, maybe re-raise, thereby knocking out some of the competition with any luck.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you raised JJ in an unraised pot everytime, you'd be doing a good job. If there are two limpers, you want to raise to get everyone else out. If there are 4+ limpers, you can raise to buy the button and get the blinds out. If you are in the BB, and all 9 opponents call, you can raise simply for the set value. If you ever call preflop with JJ, in an unraised pot, explain to me why that is a good idea. Just send it to my account so I know I'll see it

TheHip41

11-03-2004, 02:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I would be happy to play HU against a single opponent with JJ. Once the number of opponents increases, the chances of JJ standing up decrease significantly. The real question is whether, if you raise against four opponents, you will win more than one time in four against them. If the answer is that you will not ( and an earlier posting suggests your success rate is likely to be 17%), then the raise before the flop is mathematically incorrect. The more opponents who are in the hand, the greater the likelihood that your hand is going to be second best. It is worth raising against a large number of opponents because you are getting the right pot odds to do it. Against three or four opponents I doubt whether that is the case.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you telling me that if I have JJ against 4 random hands, I won't win more than 20% of the time??? This is not right. You have a huge edge. And the time you flop all undercards, you know youwill be paid off by all sorts of trash.

You absolutely have to start raising JJ preflop