Define +EV for me

[weekapaugz]

What is EV, +EV, and -EV?

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

EV = Expected Value

[weekapaugz]

a little more in depth? how does someone figure this out? how do you figure out whether a cash game is +EV? tournament?

[KenProspero]

EV is Expected Value.

In other words, the amount you expect to win or lose from a given action in the long run.

If you expect to win, long run, an action has a +EV. If you'd lose in the long run, it has -EV.

Calculating EV is important to learn, and depends on many factors. Including number of outs you have, chances of winning if your outs come home (whether they're true outs or counterfeited), the size of the pot, the opponents you're playing against, etc.

Probably the best way to start (absent using analyzers which will estimate the EV in various circumstances), is to count your outs, and figure the pot odds for given plays.

Example -- do you call a bet on the Turn for an inside straight draw?

Assume you're heads up (so there will be no raise), your straight will be the nuts, and you're almost positive that you'll lose if you don't hit your straight.

In this case, you have 4 outs. You've seen 6 cards, so there are 46 left. You win with 4 cards, lose with 42, so, unless the pot is about 10.5-11x the bet you have to make, calling has -EV (someone correct me if I've done the math wrong). On the other hand, if the pot is more than 11x the bet, you have +EV (i.e., you'll make more on the one time you you hit your straight than you'll lose on the 10 or 11 times (on average)when you don't.)

Even though you'll often be told how 'lucky' you were. If there's +EV, it's not really luck at all, it's just a matter of recognizing that if the situation comes up enough times you expect that you'll win more chips than you'll lose by taking the action.

[froggy527]

46/4=11.5 subtact 1 to get 10.5-to-1
from SSH

[LALDAAS]

Hello all first time poster here.

I am still as green as a frog here, so for my question. All these calculations with pot odds, implied pot odds and reverse pot odds when to decide to call is purely base on the fact that on a gutshot striaght draw with a 10.5:1 is to break even in the long run. Is that corret?

so when looking at pot odds of 10.5:1 in essence what this is saying is that I am giving my self 10.5 oppertunities to hit the striaght, hence in the long run I will at best break even.

P.S. I apollogize for cross posting this same post in probability section. /images/graemlins/confused.gif still new to these forums

[KenProspero]

First, Thanks Froggy for the math help. I had calculated 10.5-1, but read 11-1 in a book somewhere. Good to know my math skills aren't totally kaput. (Always nice when you can figure it out yourself)


[ QUOTE ]

so when looking at pot odds of 10.5:1 in essence what this is saying is that I am giving my self 10.5 oppertunities to hit the striaght, hence in the long run I will at best break even.



[/ QUOTE ]


LALDAAS -- that's more or less right. But consider the following:

If you hit your straight, you may split the pot, or possibly lose in some cases

In the example I made up, I said this was minimal, but it could happen. For example, you hit the gutshot straight on the turn, but the board pairs on the river giving someone a full house.

Also, you might miss your gutshot straight and win anyway. (You hit a top pair).

[PuertoKid]

Read the first chapter of Theory of Poker for a straight-forward, easy-to-understand, explanation.