7 card stud suffered (or foolish) fold

7 card stud 20-40 table


This is an occasional table with half good players and half recreational ones. I'm playing a very solid poker raising only with big pairs or better.


I'm dealt (K-Q)K with 2 spades, KIngs lives 2 spades out.


After the bring-in, 1 player showing a ten limps, I complete the bet, a player behind me raises with a 5 showing (1 five is out), all fold, I reraise, he reraises, I call.


4th card: King for me, Ace for him. Now the boards looks like:


me: (K-Q)K-K


opponent: (x-x)5-A


I bet the full amount, he raises, I fold.


THis is a good stud player so I put him on ACes in the hole. In my decision a decisive role comes out from a recent reading (all people knows that though) that a inferior trips is 82 to 18 to win the pot.


Any comments about this super suffered fold?


Results later


Marco

I don't play stud, but why can't he have trip 5s?

you better know your player well to fold here especially because almost every player I play with would wait until fifth street to raise here since you will obviously bet. A very strong player however would know that something was up even if the A just called into a paired board. Keep in mind he could be rolled up in which case you lose an awful lot by folding.


pat

Where did you get the 82 to 18 odds information from? I've been looking for a good source of 7stud odds.


When you fold there is slightly more than $240 in the pot so you have to be getting the proper odds to chase higher trips.


However, a good 20-40 stud player will reraise on third street with a hand like (5,A) 5 in order to play heads-up against a pair of Kings. He may have caught merely Aces up on fourth street. Also, he may have put you on trip Kings and tried to semi-bluff you out on 4th street since that would be the only way he could win the pot.


If you're folding trip Kings on 4th street, players who recognize this are going to push you around.

You will know when your opponent makes a full house, but he won't know when you make a full house.

I think I know the kind of player that you're talking about.


I once folded Rolled deuces on 3rd st against such a player but that situation is very very rare. It seemed like a great fold but it was actually a very easy decision.


John..

I don't like this fold at all. He could easily have just A's up or rolled up 5's. He could easily have A's up and raise thinking now that youve paired your door card is much less likely that you have trips K's than K's up or K's and a 3flush.


If this was a *weak* player who plays his hands in an obvious way then maybe you can justify this fold but not from a good player who will play many hands on 3rd and 4th this way besides pocket A's.

Not a good move at all from my point of view. He may have trip Aces, but he would be less likely to stivk in a raise with trip Aces than aces up. A raise here could be done purely for information purposes by him.


Also people who see you making this sort of fold will be pushing you around all day long. I would go to a chcek and call mode, solely for the sake of table image here, but only after i've raised him a few times. It is much better to be known as a player who will pay off a few bets with a big hand than to be a player who makes judgement laydowns. The problem with making big judgement laydowns is that people know you do it, and one bad judgement fold cancels 10-20 good judgement laydowns. Even if you are right (and i doubt that you were) you still have odds to chase.

I'd like to hear about the hand where you folded rolled-up deuces on third street. I've never folded trips on third street and can't figure out a scenario where I wouldn't want to see the fourth street card.

First, thanks for all comments.


1- For the poster who sayed why he couldn't have rolled 5s I'm telling you that he's not the player who push up a rolled trips on 3rd street heads-up (as almost always players do in a NOT multiway pot where, in this case, is the right move in my opinion).


2- I cannot play this hand thinking he has trips of Aces. I have not many outs to beat him. I'm a huge underdog (82 to 18 in percentage)


3- I put him not on rolled 5s as the likelihood he has three 5s is diminished as a 5 was showing in another hand.


4- Probabilities (for the player interested) you can find in K. Othmer book, a must for a 7 stud player in my poor opinion.


5- RESULTS: Probably it's the first time I guessed an important move. He has two red aces in the hole then having trips on 4th street. I couldn't risk my money as this game is spread very rarely.


6- BAD FOLD: I ask the dealer to show the 5th card and it was a innocuos 4 for him and a good Queen on my side. (Kings full of Queens) DAMN!.


However, I appreciate very much your answers, I think you are good stud players and I hope you keep in this forum.


Marco

From Marco's last post:

"2- I cannot play this hand thinking he has trips of Aces. I have not many outs to beat him. I'm a huge underdog (82 to 18 in percentage)"


Marco,


Assuming he has trip Aces, with $240 in the pot already, you're getting the 4.56 to 1 pot odds you need to call $40 here. As somebody else pointed out, you will know when he makes a full house (which is a little less likely since his 5 is somewhat dead) so you can release the hand if he makes an open pair. But he'll be chasing you if you make a pair of split Queens because he won't know you've filled up.


By the way, if your cards are completely live, you have 9 outs to make a full house on the river and 1 out to make quads. 10 outs is a lot especially since you won't be sticking around if he makes that open pair.


If the pot was small, then folding is easy. But the pot is much to large to muck in this case.

It was a while back so I don't remember details.


King raises , Ace re-raises , Five 3 bets.


1 A out ( previously folded)


I'm the force bet with 2,2,2


All 3 players are WYSIWYG type but more important I know for certain that the FIVE would never 3 bet in that situation with less than aces.


Instinct told me not to gamble..


What would you have done?

Also how would you have played if aces were live?

The funny thing is my table image was that of a maniac .

Hmmmmmmmmmm.


Everything depends on what the 5 has. If your read on him is correct then he either has pocket Aces or trip 5s. If he had Aces, then you're in great shape to win a huge pot. Either the King or Ace could have raised with a three-flush or a smaller pair in the hole (especially the Ace).


If he has trip 5s, then you are still getting the proper odds to chase if the King and Ace stay in the hand for a couple rounds with the big pairs they're representing.


Would this guy raise on third street with trip 5s or would he wait until 5th street to drop the bomb?


I've never put anybody on rolled-up trips (perhaps that's inadequate hand reading skills on my part) so I would have played the hand for sure. Even if I put him on trip 5s, I wouldn't have been 100% sure and I would have called with all the action that was sure to come.


There are two hands I've never folded: rolled-up trips on third street and a full house (or better) regardless of when it's made. If I suspect somebody has a bigger fullhouse, I just pay him off to make sure since the pot is without a doubt big with two monster hands like that on the table. I think anybody's game can tolerate this bare minimal "calling station" approach.

one thing you need to keep, in mind especially on third street, is that even if you are noth rolled up there is still a 24% chance that you will make a boat and he wont. This means that you are a 3-1 dog and unless it was heads up right from the start you likely will get enough odds to keep playing.


pat

It seems the same hard decision I faced. But now you have nothing invested in the pot and if he indeed has rolled 5s (and all things let us think that) you are a HUGE underdog no matter for pot odds, implied odds, etc.Another disadvantage is that whether u decide to call you are playing with showing cards (2-2-2)


Marco

I don't like calling looking at pot odds when I'm surely beaten. Every pot at seven stud has good pot odds to call with marginal hands, but if you do that you are donating money. If I put a man on a given hand and I'm actually a BIG UNDERDOG, I save a lot of money folding. The same situation arises when you have a big pair, catching two pair on 5th looking at a very probable flush in another board. Now are you hoping to catch the 4 outs you need to beat flush or hoping he hasn't the flush he is representing? Me not.


Marco

"I'm playing a very solid poker raising only with big pairs or better."


Not to criticize, but this statement sounds like you're playing too tight and not aggressive enough.


Thoughts about the word "solid" being used on this forum:


Most posters seem to interchange the words "solid" and "tight" too freely. In most mid-limit (i.e. 20-40) games, tight play will usually get the money. But, to me at least, this is not what I would consider "solid" play. Solid play involves more than "raising only with big pairs or better". Solid play involves becoming unpredictable with your bets and raises, so that opponents don't know whether you have the big pair this time or the 3-flush or 3 broadway cards or just a bluff.


Now, about the hand you posted...


Do you know the other player in the hand? How does he play? If he is a tight predictable player that has to have aces or a rollup to raise you on 3rd street, then your reraise here is questionable but I can live with it since you have a good kicker. After he reraises you back it should be obvious that he either has pocket aces or a rollup, with aces being much more likely since most players (at any limit) love to slowplay their rollups almost to an extreme. So I give him maybe 90% chance of aces and 10% rollup if he's a predictable player.


On 4th street you bet with trip kings and he raises you. In this spot, even if the guy showed me trip aces I don't think I'd fold, just because you can outplay him since you know exactly what his cards are. If you fill up you can checkraise him and get 2 bets in on a street when you're a heavy favorite, if he pairs a board card you can simply fold since you'd know you're drawing dead. I'm not much of a pot odds player, but instead I try to think more about whether I have a playing advantage in the hand, and in this case you do. Even though he will win more pots than you in this scenario, you can make the pots you win bigger than the pots he wins by having the hand that is easier to play, even though you're behind.

Dear Player,

Once he re-raised after you raised him on 3rd, he had pocket A's

However,you can continue playing if you put him on pocket A's on 3rd. St. since he's easy to read for two pairs on the later streets. However,folding your set of K's on 4th is O.K. after he connected with an "A' on 4th. I would continue to play since he had a semi-dead side card and


your Q's was live.


Sitting Bull

Dear Player,

The odds are against his having a set of 5's.


Sitting Bull

Dear Player,

I would not continue playing the hand on 4th unless his side card were semi-dead and mine were live.


Sitting Bull

Dear Player,

The only reason I would have tagged along was because of the live "Q'? However,you were still in serious trouble!


I don't think I's a good idea to play in a higher limit game that's not spread frequently. In the short run, you may lose a lot of money--even if you are the favorite over the field!


I think Konstantine Ottmer's stud book is excellent.


Sitting Bull