Am I just VERY unlucky?

[spatch]

I started tracking my 4 flush fill % online back in February, after what seemed like a very bad run. I have taken very dubious notes, and since have filled just 47 of 401 4 flush flops, less than 12% v. the 35% odds of filling. Of the 47 I've filled, 3 were beat by 2 pair filling a boat on the river on a 4 outter after i filled on 4th st. 3 times my Ace high flush was beaten by a straight flush. 2 times someone had flopped a boat, and once someone had flopped quads, and 3 times I was beaten by a bigger flush. The most recent I had KK(h), had raised from the button, 1 limper called. 3 hearts flopped, and the turn was a heart. The one caller I had to my raise had A(hearts)J(c)!
My other frustration with online poker is that since I have obtained Poker Tracker @ 4000 hands ago, I have had AK 43 times, 13 of which the flop came with an A or a K, which is about right. The issue I have is that of those 13, only 7 won the hand. 53% wins when I flopped top pair with top kicker. I joke that they call it a "random number generator", I say its a "random RAKE generator" designed to keep as many people in hands as possible.

[Flawed]

when you keep people in the hands you generate more rake per hand but you dont get very many hands in per hr so the net result is minimal, also factor in you increase the chances of busting someone out, so rigging the deck in this way is not worth the trouble.

[BreakEvenPlayer]

Try a new hobby. (http://games.yahoo.com/games/login2?page=ck)

[lorinda]

'Go' is rigged, I'm a 1600 or so chess player, a 1850 magic player and a 1050 Go player.

It's rigged and it's driving me nuts.

Lori

[Blarg]

Yes, you are very unlucky.

Welcome to the club.

Seriously, we all have bad runs sometimes. I think I would like to introduce you to Sample Size Man.

He's looking over my shoulder and telling me that your 4,000 hands is too trivial to do anything but feel bad about. Again, welcome to the exceedingly large club -- we all have bad runs sometimes.

You think losing a bit more than you should with AK is bad? I've had runs over 5,000 where KK is a loser, where QQ is the biggest loser I have, and runs almost that long where AA is a loser. Hope that makes you feel better about your AK.

Hey, poker gets rough and hard to take sometimes. But that doesn't mean things won't even out in the end so the bad hands lose and the good hands win. It's just you have to get a concept of how long the long run really is. In poker, it's huge. I think it takes most of us a long time to realize how huge that long run really is. You could win or lose for 10's of thousands of hands mostly on the basis of luck.

So don't sweat a bad 4k of hands as being the end of the world. Feel bad about it if you like; we all do sometimes. Wallow in it, cry and howl if you like.

Then get up off your ass and go play some more poker.

[Baulucky]

You urgently need my state-of-the-art PPPM (Party Poker Pattern Mapper) to predict what cards will fall on the flop turn and river.

It's not cheap though. Price is $100,000 a piece. Everybody that has used it (only me) is very pleased with the results.

[Michael Davis]

Prove it. You are exaggerating your streak. If you can prove this to me using PokerTracker or somesuch acceptable means, I'll transfer you $100.

If your streak is as you say, you are being cheated. But you lie.

-Michael

[lorinda]

Ignore this post, must be bedtime.

Lori

[Homer]

47 of 401 4 flush flops

mean = .35*401 = 140.35

sd = sqrt(401*.35*.65) = 9.55

140.35 + 9.55x = 47

This is a -9.77 sd event, which occurs 0.0000000000000000000000000000001 of the time (actually there may be more zeroes, as Excel only goes to 30 places).

If you want to prove this, run a statistical test starting now. You cannot use old data, as you must start collecting data after forming a hypothesis. To learn how to form a hypothesis, set up confidence intervals and so on, make a post in the Probability forum. Then run the test and post the results here.

-- Homer

[FlFishOn]

I think it might make a difference. What site do you play?

[Rudbaeck]

[ QUOTE ]
'Go' is rigged, I'm a 1600 or so chess player, a 1850 magic player and a 1050 Go player.

[/ QUOTE ]

A 1050 go player? What kyu is that equivalent to?

[bwana devil]

bet the river.

[Thythe]

[ QUOTE ]
I think it might make a difference. What site do you play?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ooooh, goodie. Here's FlFish to talk about Party being rigged again. I can't wait!

[SmileyEH]

[ QUOTE ]
I have taken very dubious notes

[/ QUOTE ]


This might explain some things.....

-SmileyEH

[LinusKS]

"Dubious" means "unreliable" or "untrustworthy."

Is that what you meant to say?

I suspect - if you're relying on handwritten notes - you're writing down every single bad beat, but forgetting to record all the times when you won.

If you really did manage to lose three times to straight flushes when you had the A-flush, that does sound like bad luck, though.


[ QUOTE ]
I started tracking my 4 flush fill % online back in February, after what seemed like a very bad run. I have taken very dubious notes, and since have filled just 47 of 401 4 flush flops, less than 12% v. the 35% odds of filling. Of the 47 I've filled, 3 were beat by 2 pair filling a boat on the river on a 4 outter after i filled on 4th st. 3 times my Ace high flush was beaten by a straight flush. 2 times someone had flopped a boat, and once someone had flopped quads, and 3 times I was beaten by a bigger flush. The most recent I had KK(h), had raised from the button, 1 limper called. 3 hearts flopped, and the turn was a heart. The one caller I had to my raise had A(hearts)J(c)!
My other frustration with online poker is that since I have obtained Poker Tracker @ 4000 hands ago, I have had AK 43 times, 13 of which the flop came with an A or a K, which is about right. The issue I have is that of those 13, only 7 won the hand. 53% wins when I flopped top pair with top kicker. I joke that they call it a "random number generator", I say its a "random RAKE generator" designed to keep as many people in hands as possible.

[/ QUOTE ]