5-10 rule analysis

[JaBlue]

Hi this is about playing for set value.

The 5-10 rule states that if it is only 10% of your stack, it is worthwhile to play for set value; that is, to play no set, no bet style poker. (Lets assume you have pocket twos so that the situation with all unders doesn't occur)

If you call off 10% of your stack preflop with the ducks, your implied odds to hit the set are 10-1 (plus blinds). If you had 100, you're putting in 10 to possibly win 90 of your stack and their 10$ bet. Now lets add the blinds. If you assume that he's making a standard raise to 10 with you having to call 10, so blinds are 1.67 - 3.33 (since the standard 3x BB) . That adds an extra 5.00 to your implied odds if you assume the blinds won't call the vast majority of the time for a final implied odds of 5 (blinds) + 10 (his bet) + 90 (your stack after calling his blind and raise) = 115$

If you assume you have to fold when the set doesn't come 88% of the time, you lose your 10$ 88 times. For -880$. That means that for the 12 times you hit your set, you have to be able to extract 880$ more from your opponent each time in order to break even with this play. With implied odds of 105, which means they have to stack you, they have to double you up 8.3 times out of the 12 that you hit your set. Now, call me crazy, but I don't think that it's likely they'll pay you off this often.

This makes it clearly incorrect to call off 10% of your stack for set value heads up.

Obviously as more people enter the pot, your implied odds go way up along with the frequency that you'll be paid off, making it much more correct to call 10% of your stack with limpers in front etc.

Anyway I really just posted this to show the people that love systems where they can follow precise rules and profit in this game that the 5-10 rule is not always correct.

Obviously, if you have a situation with others in the pot and it is 10% or less of your stack to call, its a good idea to do so.

Anyway discuss the validity of this post /images/graemlins/smile.gif

-Jared

[me454555]

I think you are misinterpreting the 5-10 rule. It states that you can always call when its less than 5% of your stack but when its 10% or more you should fold. Anything between 5 and 10 is the grey area and is player dependant for the reasons you mentioned above.

[binions]

From pp 64-65 of Ciaffone & Reuben's "Pot Limit and No Limit Hold'em" chapter of PL & NL Poker book:

"I think the biggest mistake many players make is to get involved without adequate values when an opponent raises the pot. Raises are supposed to be made on a hand such as AQ, AK or a pair of 99 thru AA. Quite often, a raiser will not have this good a hand, but more than half the time he will. If your hand isn't this strong, you do not belong in the pot unless you are in position."

"When contemplating calling a raise because your position is good, you have a clear call if the amount of the raise is less than 5% of your stack, and a clear fold if it is more than 10%. In between, use your judgment."

On pp 60-61, Ciaffone says the best position in a raised pot is not necessarily the button, but the spot directly on the raiser's right. The worst position is directly to the raiser's left. This should be obvious.

From these passages, Ciaffone seems to say calling a raise (or reraising) even in bad position for more than 10% of your stack is OK with big pairs and big aces.

It's those medium to small suited aces, suited connectors, pocket pairs that you need a raise less than 10% of your stack and good position to call with.

PS Bear in mind, this book deals more with cash games than tourneys.

[blackaces13]

Doesn't the size of your opponents stack have any bearing on this?

If a guy with 500 makes it 150 to go and you have 2000 is this still a call with a small pocket?

[binions]

Stack size is a huge consideration.

The subtitle to the PL & NL HE chapter in Ciaffone's book is called "How deep the money is determines your play"

The 5-10 rules assumes the raiser has as many chips as you, or more. If you have more chips than the raiser, the 5-10 rule applies to the raiser's stack.

If you can't get at least 10 to 1 odds from a short stack raiser, I muck the small pairs heads up. For suited connectors, I need 20 to 1 odds to call.