Playing AA with KK on the board

[mephisto2000]

Villain is tight-passive but besides that I have no read on him. I considered folding on the turn but with 12:1 pot odds I figured I should call even though it's 22:1 for me to improve.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif. UTG+1 posts a blind of $0.5.
UTG folds, UTG+1 (poster) checks, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button <font color="purple">(Villain (TP))</font> calls, SB folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls, Button <font color="purple">(Villain (TP))</font> calls.

Flop: (14.50 SB) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(7 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, CO calls, Villain (TP) calls.

Turn: (9.25 BB) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 folds, CO folds, <font color="CC3333">Villain (TP) raises</font>, Hero calls.

River: (13.25 BB) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">Villain (TP) bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 15.25 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 15.25 BB, between Villain (TP) and Hero.</font>

[Chris Daddy Cool]

whether or not you call down has nothing to do with your odds of improving because you're not going to get those odds. you're basically counting the pot to see how often you're good when you do call down. so on the turn raise, you're getting 6.625-1 to call this raise and a river bet, so based on your read on this guy, do you think you're good often enough with these odds to making calling down profitable?

[Webster]

Folding on the turn would be a HUGE mistake. sure - you look beat but he could be bluffing. You probebly ARE beat but with AA and a pair board it's time to turn into a calling station and pray.

A raise on the turn normally means better then top pair but it's not like your drawing dead.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

well if villian has a K, hero is virtually drawing dead...

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
Folding on the turn would be a HUGE mistake. sure - you look beat but he could be bluffing.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's funny on these boards how the assumption is that your opponent may be bluffing you. Folding would NOT be a HUGE mistake, especially since as CDC pointed out, Hero is getting less than 7:1 to get to showdown after being raised here by a tight-passive player.



[ QUOTE ]
You probably ARE beat but with AA and a pair board it's time to turn into a calling station and pray.

[/ QUOTE ]

You do realize that the "pair board" is pretty meaningless, unless you think that the "tight passive" opponent not only played 65 on the button but failed to raise the flop with his two-pair?

[mack848]

The most likely hands I put a TP on, to call pre and post flop, are 66, 55, Kx or 2 diamonds. A5s or A6s are less likely given Hero's AA.
I see players who flop trips regularly waiting 'til the turn before raising. So, on the turn raise I see Hero up against trip Ks, 6s or 5s most of the time - occasioanlly a low pair or semi-bluffed 4 flush.

Hero will get about 6/1 if he calls down, but that is not just 6/1 against beating what is there now - but what the players on the turn end up with at the river(there are still 3 opponents left at the point he would check the turn). Of course he has a 22/1 chance of AAA.

I don't see a turn fold as a HUGE mistake. Borderline at best IMHO.

ps I am a newbie, so please correct my logic if flawed.

[SlantNGo]

I used to call this down everytime, but lately I've been folding a lot in these situations. Of course, a read on the player as tight-passive helps. What else could he be raising? Would he raise if he just picked up a flush draw? You hold both red aces. Is he raising 65? I think you're up against either a K or a set and probably lay it down. You're good maybe 1 in 10, so the immediate odds say call, but you'll probably have to call again on the river, so you need to be good about 1 in 6 as mentioned by the others here. Read-based fold.

[matt hooley]

the question i find myself asking is will the tight-passive villian bluff at this ~14% of the time? if you don't think so then folding the turn is correct, becoming a calling station makes no sense.