A Stud Hand (Long, as stud hands tend to be)

The following is a stud hand I recently played in a $2-$6 game. I think it is very interesting and worth analysis. Some details have been omitted because they lack importance.


It is brought in for $2 by Player A deuce. Player B with a T showing calls the bring-in, I have A/A-T, raise the pot to $8. Player C with a K showing calls, so do the bring-in and other limper.


On 4th street, the bring-in drops. We all catch blanks on 4th and 5th, the board now showing (in order of cards received):


A: Fold B: T-7-Q rainbow Me: (A/T) A-6-3 rainbow C: K-5-J rainbow


On 6th street, the boards now show:


B: T-7-Q-Q Me: A-6-3-4 C: K-5-T-5


B bets out with his pair of Qs showing. While not going into great detail about this player, let me just say that he was a very good player, and I was fairly certain he had 9-8 in the hole, for an open-ended straight draw and a pair of Qs. I think his bet here was questionable (only because of the 3rd terrible player in the pot), but so be it. I would say I am 80% sure he has 9-8 in the hole.


I am also fairly certain that player C has Ks and 5s, or some sort of two pair, but anything is possible with this guy.


My dilemma: Do I fold, call, or raise. I am not the best hand anymore, with just aces, as I am up against two pair. I can only make trips or lower, but my two pair cards (save the T) are live. I could just call and fold if I don't improve. But raising is intriguing, since it may get the two smaller pair out of the pot.


What do you think?


Results and my opinion in the next post.

I decided to make the weak play and just call, only because I felt the player with a likely Ks and 5s was so terrible that he would have called with any two pair here, and possibly only 5s with a gutshot straight draw or something. Against a solid opponent, I think raising is the right move.


I was right about the straight draw, but when he bet out on the river, I knew he made his straight. Plus, I didn't improve my aces, so they couldn't beat the 6s and 5s shown over by Player C. (I hope he had pocket 6s from the start at least.)


Thanks for the responses, I hope I explained this hand properly, because I think it is a close call for all three decisions, and a very interesting hand to debate.


Mike

I forgot to include the pot size on 6th street:


After 5th street, the pot is $68 minus the $4 rake.


The $6 bet into me on 6th makes the pot $70 to me, it would cost me $12 bucks to pop a raise when I only think there is about a 20% chance of the guy I really want out of the pot folding. However, this pot is big, and it may be right to try and win at all costs. Perhaps the mathematicians can help here.

If player 3 is capable of folding K's up then a raise is in order. Otherwise I would just call.


Folding is out of the question. John..

I have doubts about the confidence of your 98 read, but lets go with it.


You appear to be a little better than 2:1 dog to make two pair (13 outs, about 35 unseen cards), which will win I guess about 2/3 of the time making you about 3:1 dog to win; there is 11 bets in the pot. Folding is out of the question. So you are going to at least call.


If you are going to call, raising only costs one bet. Once you call, I count 12 bets in the pot. Since the draw will beat you about 1/3 of the time it looks like you can win about 8 bets when the two-pair behind you folds. So I guess, and its a guess, that you should raise if the two-pair will fold more often than one time in 9. And if he DOESN'T fold, he probably would raise with his KsUp and it costs you the same anyhow.


Yes, getting the best hand to fold when you have the 2nd best hand will tend to dominate EV calculations. This should be your FIRST inclination in these spots; then look for a good reason NOT to raise.


- Louie

dear mike, with his primary cards semi-dead(6,j),player b would not bet his opened-ended str. since you classify him as a good player,i believe he has a's up beat. a very good player would be reading k's up and a's up. you are most likely drawing almost dead. larry'sitting bull' duplessis

if you do not fold i would raise in this situation almost everytime if I thought there was any chance that one of the players will fold. Also if player B is a good player as you describe he probably should have folded on third street with 89 in the hole, so either he is perhaps not that good or he does not have 89.


Pat

Larry,


With his Qs showing, I think a bet is in order here because of the chance that I will fold my aces and he will be left heads up against an unknown entity, where improving to two pair could give him the win.


Mike.

Louie,


Thanks for the insightful advice, excellent as always. Two things, a comment and a questions:


First, to justify my read on 9-8 in the hole, I will tell you that I know this guy inside-out, he would not stick around here for that much money without a roll, a draw, or buried As. He knows my game and knows I have As. Also, he does not play his draws if he doesn't improve on 4th street. So, there was a pretty narrow group of hands he could have. Yes, I was slightly worried that he had Q-J in the hole and decided to take on off on 4th because of the size of the pot, but thought it was most likely he had an open-ended draw on 4th.


Second, a question: Suppose I do get the player showing the 5s to fold, and the player with Qs does have two pair? Now, it seems like my raise may be incorrect, because I want the other two pair hand in on the river when I make my two pair, as he is quite unlikely to improve and will pay off a bet. Does this change the situation?


Thanks.


Mike

If you HAVE AcesUp: the KsUp behind you has 4 outs so when the pot reaches about 10bb you don't want him to draw. But when you NEED AcesUp I think the pot must be much larger before its worth raising him out. Mmmmm, lets see...


[1] You call, KsUp folds. 12 bets you improve 1 time in 3; QsUp improves 1 time in 10: In 100 trys you improve 33 but lose 3 of those for a win 30 times and lose 70, or 30*12-70=360-70=290, or 2.9 bets per attempt.


[2] You call, KsUp calls. If KsUp also calls there is 13 bets for you to win. You now 3 less times or 27*13-73 = 278, or 2.78 bets per attempt. You slightely prefers he doesn't call.


[3] You raise, KsUp folds, QsUp calls. You risk 2 to win 13. You win 30 times and lose 70 again, 30*13-70*2 = 250 or 2.5 bets per attempt. You do worse raising the KsUp out.


- Louie

with 7 outs, it is worth a call because of the money in the pot. You will have to catch to win, in my opinion, so a raise is not in order. The 2 pairs will call you all the time, every time in a 2-6 game and pay you off if you hit. Otherwise your single pair looses.