Final Pre-election Polls in 2000

[mikech]

All of the following but Zogby had Bush by at least 2%; Gore eventually won the popular vote by 0.5%. Couple that fact with the huge turnout that's expected this year and I think Kerry squeaks one out.


Actual Final Vote

Bush 47.87%

Gore 48.38%

Nader 2.74%



Final Polls


Zogby/Reuters Poll

Gore 48%

Bush 46%

Nader 4%


Gallup/USA Today/CNN

Bush 48%

Gore 46%

Nader 4%

Buchanan 1%


NBC/Wall Street Journal

Bush 47%

Gore 44%

Nader 3%

Buchanan 2%


Washington Post

Bush 48%

Gore 45%

Nader 3%


Battleground Poll

Bush 46%

Gore 41%

Nader 4%

Buchanan 1%


ABC News

Bush 48%

Gore 45%

Nader 3%

Buchanan 1%


CBS News

Bush 46%

Gore 42%

Nader 5%

Buchanan 1%


Rasmussen

Bush 49%

Gore 40%

Nader 4%


Pew Research

Bush 45%

Gore 43%

Nader 4%


ICR Poll

Bush 46%

Gore 44%

Nader 7%

Buchanan 2%


Investor’s Business Daily/TIPP

Bush 48%

Gore 42%

Nader 3%

Buchanan 1%

[Non_Comformist]

That doesn't mean much.

#1 Polling was stopped before the Bush DUI story, so noone is sure as to its affects

#2 There is no way to know whether or not Zogby had/has superior polling techniques or just got lucky. If you had a 16 man tournament in which a coin was flipped an each person made a heads/tail guess you would end up with a winner who went 4-0. Would this person have better technique as to determining the outcome of a coin flip? No.

The huge turn out and its affects are also guesses. Remember 4 million fundemental christians didn't vote in 2000. It's anyone's guess as to how these new voters will act. For example my younger brother, college freshman voting Bush.

Using historical trends such as wrong track/right track and the economy this should be walk for Kerry but it's not.

No team had ever comeback from a 0-3 deficit in the LCS, until now. History ony tells the past.

[LaggyLou]

[ QUOTE ]
#1 Polling was stopped before the Bush DUI story, so noone is sure as to its affects

[/ QUOTE ]

You should know better than to rely on the fine folks at freerepublic.com for information. In fact, many of the polls took place after the Nov 1-2 DUI story, including:

ABC (48-45 Bush) (Nov. 3-5)
CBS (45-44 Gore) (Nov. 4-6)
Gallup (CNN/USA Today) (48-46 Bush) (Nov. 5-6)
Harris (47-47 Tie) (Nov. 3-5)
Hart/Teeter (NBC/WSJ) (47-44 Bush) (Nov. 3-5)
Zogby (Reuters) (48-46 Gore)

[scalf]

/images/graemlins/confused.gif the total popular vote means nothing..

it is the electoral college...that is votes in key swing states that will determinne the election

get with the program dimwits

gl

/images/graemlins/shocked.gif /images/graemlins/tongue.gif /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[anatta]

I notice that Rasmussen had Bush up nine in 2000. Nice job. Just 10 points off.

I never trusted their tracking poll. It now shows the practically tied. I still think it slants right.

[LaggyLou]

[ QUOTE ]
I notice that Rasmussen had Bush up nine in 2000. Nice job. Just 10 points off.

I never trusted their tracking poll. It now shows the practically tied. I still think it slants right.

[/ QUOTE ]

Supposedly, Scott Rasmussen changed his methodology after that debacle, so who knows if the sins of the past are being repeated.

[Thythe]

[ QUOTE ]
/images/graemlins/confused.gif the total popular vote means nothing..

it is the electoral college...that is votes in key swing states that will determinne the election

get with the program dimwits

gl

/images/graemlins/shocked.gif /images/graemlins/tongue.gif /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

When we hear stats about 48% Bush, 46% Kerry for example, is this an election prediction, or a prediction of the popular vote (did that make any sense?) To clarify, does the 48% Bush mean he has a 48% chance of winning the presidency, or that 48% of the polled people are voting for him? If it is the latter, then we can see that the OPs polls really were way off.

[LaggyLou]

[ QUOTE ]
When we hear stats about 48% Bush, 46% Kerry for example, is this an election prediction, or a prediction of the popular vote (did that make any sense?) To clarify, does the 48% Bush mean he has a 48% chance of winning the presidency, or that 48% of the polled people are voting for him? If it is the latter, then we can see that the OPs polls really were way off.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's the latter. The polls are supposed to predict the proportion of the popular vote, and they indeed were largely wrong last time. This time, we'll see.

[SinCityGuy]

Forget Kerry's number and the undecided number.

Right now, Bush's number averages out to 48. If he doesn't get close to averaging 50 in the final polls before election day, he's toast.

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
Right now, Bush's number averages out to 48. If he doesn't get close to averaging 50 in the final polls before election day, he's toast.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't forget that third party candidates should be expected to get about 2% of the vote.

[SinCityGuy]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't forget that third party candidates should be expected to get about 2% of the vote.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nader will not get more than 1% of the vote. I think that the total third party tally is going to come in somewhere around 1.5%.

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Don't forget that third party candidates should be expected to get about 2% of the vote.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nader will not get more than 1% of the vote. I think that the total third party tally is going to come in somewhere around 1.5%.

[/ QUOTE ]

1.5% seems low. Nader should get between 0.5% to 0.9%. Badnarik is on almost all (all?) state ballots. The Green Party has a candidate, etc.

In previous years, non-Democratic and non-Republican candidates got these %'s:

2000: Nader 2.7%, Others 1.0%
1996: Perot 8.4%, Others 1.8%
1992: Perot 18.9%, Others 0.6%
1988: Others 1.0%
1984: Others 0.7%
1980: Anderson 6.6%, Clark (Libertarian) 1.0%, Others 0.6%
1976: Others 1.9%
1972: Others 2.4%

[tolbiny]

My guess would be in the 1.5-2.5% range for Third party votes. Last election Nader was attempting to make a statement by getting 5% of the popular vote and qualifying for federally funding or whatever. This year there is no such push from any of the third party's, there is no insanely rich Ross Perot type just throwing his money around and getting tons of national exposure. More and more people are acting terrified that their hated opposition might win, and more states are coming closer than they have been in previous years. This should eman a sig number of voters who will vote REp or Demo as their vote seems to matter more than in previous years. I think we get a fairly low third party turnout.