Kerry favorite to win White House

[largeeyes]

On today's trading, Kerry is now the favorite. Pretty bizarre 48 hours......

PRESIDENT.GWBUSH2004 49.6 52.9 49.5 972.8k -4.5
PRESIDENT.KERRY2004 50.2 50.3 50.2 80.3k +4.4

[Nate tha' Great]

I'm happy about this, but I don't understand it. The polls that came out today were pretty neutral for Kerry, and there were no major breaking news developments.

A couple of possibilities:

1) There are lots of signs of a high turnout election, including the substantial number of early votes cast. My uneducated guess is that Kerry will finish something like 3.5 points better nationally than the RCP poll average heading into Tuesday, but I'm a partisan and wouldn't feel comfortable placing money on it.

2) The markets were hedging against an October Surprise, which presumably would have favored Bush. As we grow closer to election day, the chance of an October Surprise becomes less.

3. There are people setting the market who have better information than is available publicly. For example, someone who knew the state-by-state breakdown of early balloting results, or was privy to internal polls that are likely to be more accurate than the publicly-available ones, would have a strong incentive to put money on whichever candidate (Kerry, apparently) that information favored.

[ QUOTE ]
On today's trading, Kerry is now the favorite. Pretty bizarre 48 hours......

PRESIDENT.GWBUSH2004 49.6 52.9 49.5 972.8k -4.5
PRESIDENT.KERRY2004 50.2 50.3 50.2 80.3k +4.4

[/ QUOTE ]

[Matty]

The DNC just entered Arkansas with a $250k buy. Polls there are nearly tied. Clinton will campaign there.

Also, with 16% of the vote in, Kerry is leading in Florida by 17%.

Also, polls are looking good for Kerry in Ohio, and a ton of recent Ohio registrations which look good for Kerry are currently being counted.

And then there's this explosion-gate, the photo-shopped bush ad, the halliburton investigation, the Clinton-Kerry campaign event had more participants than any campaign event in decades, 100,000 civilian deaths were just announced in Iraq, etc.

Overall, it's been an absolutely horrible week for Bush, and it just keeps getting worse.

I think we all expected a Pro-Bush October surprise, but it turns out all the surprises are hurting him.

[anatta]

Why did the Pinny line jump back up to +128? What is it on your sites now?

[Matty]

www.tradesports.com (http://www.tradesports.com)

It's on the front page.

Charts:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/RCP_Markets.html

[MMMMMM]

"I think we all expected a Pro-Bush October surprise, but it turns out all the surprises are hurting him."

One thing that isn't too surprising is an all-out news media bombardment against Bush in the final days before the election.

[Matty]

Yeah, because that happened in 2000 ...

:cough: invented the internet :cough:

Why is it those on the Right can't admit mistakes and resist blaming the messenger?

[MMMMMM]

That's not the point. Look at, which was it, CBS' plan to save that other old story for election night? And now this admittedly uncertain study being plastered all over with headlines as if the 100,000 is fact: the networks are out to hit Bush as hard as possible right before the election, it should be pretty obvious.

[The_Tracker]

[ QUOTE ]
That's not the point. Look at, which was it, CBS' plan to save that other old story for election night? And now this admittedly uncertain study being plastered all over with headlines as if the 100,000 is fact: the networks are out to hit Bush as hard as possible right before the election, it should be pretty obvious.

[/ QUOTE ]

To this I would say....so what!

Bush deserves to get called out on his decisions. His policies and agenda suck, and he is not working for the interests of normal Americans.

He has made the situation for America no better, and it can easily be argued he has made things far worse.

If it seems like everyone is out to get bush, its because they are.

Hit the bricks shrub.

[ACPlayer]

Why is there so much more volume on Bush than Kerry?

[lorinda]

Why is there so much more volume on Bush than Kerry?

I assume it is because people tend to trade these accounts.

The initial favorite usually gets the majority of the action, some people will have sold Bush early, and are now buying back to collect their winnings others will be selling selling selling.

People just follow one line (As, in a two horse race it doesn't matter which line you follow) and that tends to be the one that starts off as the likely winner.

Lori

[CCass]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, with 16% of the vote in, Kerry is leading in Florida by 17%.

[/ QUOTE ]

My bullshit alarm is going nuts. Glad to see that you have access to the early votes cast in Florida. Can you please remind me how I voted Monday?

[dmk]

Funny how you have absolutely no problem w/ this. Yet I'm sure you were one of the flaming liberals up in arms about Sinclair Broadcasting/FoxNews potentially airing a DOCUMENTARY that was harmful to Kerry. Bunch of fking hypocrites.

[El Barto]

Inside the numbers: Early voting (http://www.insideradvantage.com/stories/2004/oct/26/2538730.shtml)

"For example, each and every day since early voting began, a convoy of vans sporting Kerry-Edwards signs has rolled up to a critical early-voting location in West Palm Beach. Eyewitnesses have reported seeing the vehicles arrive around 11:00 each morning, unloading scores of primarily senior voters -- inclined to vote Democrat -- who then form long lines around the building.

Those who venture out during their lunch break -- often younger voters more inclined to support President Bush -- say they see these repeated lines each day and realize they simply don't have time on their lunch break to make it through the process in time to get back to work. Hence, they aren't voting early."

[cjromero]

Do you have a link on the early voting results in Florida? I don't recall ever seeing early voting results being released before. And Kerry being up 16% doesn't make sense at first glance, given that absentee voting historically favors Republicans by a good margin.

[Matty]

I posted a thread about it a while ago.

They aren't solid numbers, but rather a poll of people who had already voted.

[GWB]

[ QUOTE ]
I posted a thread about it a while ago.

They aren't solid numbers, but rather a poll of people who had already voted.

[/ QUOTE ]

The Democrats are busing people in, but that just means there will be shorter lines for the Pro-GOP crowd that shows up on election day.

[Matty]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I posted a thread about it a while ago.

They aren't solid numbers, but rather a poll of people who had already voted.

[/ QUOTE ]

The Democrats are busing people in, but that just means there will be shorter lines for the Pro-GOP crowd that shows up on election day.

[/ QUOTE ]Where are the hurricanes now that we need them?

[GWB]

[ QUOTE ]
Where are the hurricanes now that we need them?

[/ QUOTE ]

Florida looks nice, but Pennsylvania weather may keep the Democrats home.

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/iwxpage/adc/popup/iws5.jpg

[adios]

On tradesports.com the futures have Bush the favorite:

Most Traded Futures at Tradesports (http://www.tradesports.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/)

I'm not disputing your info, just looking at a possible arbitrage opportunity.

[nicky g]

That map looks like a picture of the apocalypse, even though the most extreme weather indidcated is "chilly".

[GWB]

[ QUOTE ]
That map looks like a picture of the apocalypse, even though the most extreme weather indidcated is "chilly".

[/ QUOTE ]

Are Ohio Democrats afraid of the cold? (lets hope so)

[adios]

Maybe we'll have a big snow storm in Cleveland on November 2, the lake effect and all /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

[GWB]

Its true that the northern half of Ohio is Democratic, the southern half is Republican, so a nice targeted storm would do the trick.