$200 SnG set hand... turn action?

[Ian J]

Hey all,

I just played a pretty interesting hand against Spyhard_SPB, who is always up there on the tourney leader board. Tell me what you think.

We're 6 handed at the 25/50 level. 2 limpers and SPB limps in the CO, I limp on the button w/ 44 and we take it w/ all 6 of us. Flop is K 4 2 rainbow and everyone checks to me. I bet a weakish amount of 150 and only SPB calls.

Turn is an 8 (2 diamonds now) for J 8 4 2. This is where it gets interesting. Spyhard checks and there's about 575 in the pot right now. I have 750 and he has 680. Knowing he's a good player what's your action after he checks? I chose to check behind because I thought it was more likely that I'd get his stack this way by him bluffing the river or looking me up w/ some mediocre King.

The river is a 3s, leaving the board J 8 4 3 2 w/ no flush possible. SPB bets 225 and I push. Whaddaya think?

[durron597]

Please tell me he didn't have 56s or A5 and this is a bad beat thread in disguise.

This is fine.

[Keres]

I think if you lost this one you got unlucky.

Assuming flop of J42 (you also have K42 in your post)

Possible but highly unlikely he has JJ. JJ most players would raise preflop hoping to protect their hand and push out somebody on the button limping in with a weak hand with overcards.

88 he'd either raise/reraise you on the flop or fold.

56 I'd be a little surprised if he called the flop bet hoping for a gutshot. He's not really getting the right odds to call here for 150 even if he hits and takes your stack, unless you check on the turn giving him two shots. But there's no way for him to think you'd give him a free card. And even if he hits there's no way he'd know he could get your stack.

Similar reasoning with A-5.

If you meant the flop was K42 and he ending up having KK (which its possible he'd limp in with), there was really nothing you could do. You were doomed once the flop hit you like that with no indication of what he had. His smooth call on the flop might send out a little warning flag. But not enough to think your hand isn't good.

Played it right and just ran into a monster.

FWIW, I usually play the 10s and 20s. I wouldn't be surprised if my analysis was way off.

[Gramps]

Your flop bet may look like a steal, and if a solid players calls your bet on the flop here, he obviously has something. A smallish bet on the Turn or a trapping check are both good ways to play this on this non-drawy flop IMO. You're going all the way here and probably have your opponent drawing dead on the Turn, so however you think you can get his chips is the way to go.

[codewarrior]

And his opponent knows this (Tourny leaderboard). Push the turn and take it there.

[durron597]

He may have 56 diamonds or A5 diamonds. Then Villians play isn't terrible at all.

[Ian J]

.

[Gramps]

[ QUOTE ]
And his opponent knows this (Tourny leaderboard). Push the turn and take it there

[/ QUOTE ]

No, no, no, no, no. Just cause someone's a solid player or plays 1,000 $215 SNGs per month and is high up on the tourney leaderboard, doesn't mean they pull cards out of their arse at will. K-4-2-8, rainbow on flop. Solid player limped in the CO. What in the world would he have that Hero is afraid of? Solid players don't open limp KK in the CO here.

You've got to be committed to putting all your chips in the pot regardless of how the hands goes down after this flop. The question is how best to get your opponent's chips in there as well. You want him to think you're stealing/don't have a great hand. Maybe that means small bet on Turn, maybe that means checking behind on Turn to induce a bet on River. If you get runner-runnered, oh well. There are probably very few cards that can beat you on the River (and your opponent still has a lot of chips relative to pot size).

I'd prefer a small Turn bet (maybe opponent will call a small Turn and small River bet, or come over top of you on Turn sensing weakness). Alternatively, if you sometimes take a stab on the button on flop, then check Turn/fold River, then mimic that play to induce a River bet (this time having a real hand).

[Gramps]

[ QUOTE ]
He may have 56 diamonds or A5 diamonds. Then Villians play isn't terrible at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even though this particular opponent is a little looser than most solid players, A5s and 65s are probably too wide a range of hands for someone who's VP$IP is 16-17% at this level. Most solid players are even tighter than that. KQ, KJ, even a set of 2s seem would seem be the likely hands (or some mid pocket pair). Villan is probably drawing very thin or completely dead with one card to come.

[stripsqueez]

he most likely has a K or 22 - i want to get all my money in when i see the turn and i dont see much harm in checking because there is no sensible draw

i would bet the turn - not push - he is chasing a weak K and that hand doesnt logically check the turn so you shouldnt let him down - i reckon you gave him a shot at folding to your river push

i have played a heap against this punter - he plays tighter than 85% of his opponents early but too loose for my liking and plainly too tight late - if he had something like KQ then i think you should revise your view of how good he is

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[Daliman]

I would and have often bet the turn in this situation vs Spyhard, but not too hard, as he can fold a solid hand. I doubt you get called on yer river push, but if he has decent King, you can milk him for ~ 200-250 on the turn and river with little fear of losing.

[Ian J]

Well,

Durron was right, this was a bad beat post in disguise. He had A5s and obviously called my river push. However, this was not the point of this post. The point was the turn action against a (presumably) good player. I don't play a whole lot of these, so I don't know a ton about Spyhard, just that he's always up there and has to be at least decent to play $200s the way he does.

Gramps,
I really like the way you think about hands. You're right in line with my thinking. I figured that on the turn he was probably drawing dead w/ KQ-KT or had one out w/ 22.

I wanted to look really weak by betting the flop from the button and then seemingly giving up on the turn. With this line, I'm able to possibly get a good player's stack in there with just a king, hence the all-in on the river. Well, didn't work out this time. Sorry for the bad beat, I was really asking about the turn action. I could care less about the beat.

[durron597]

Let's think about what he might have put you on. If you have Kx, then he has 3 A outs on the flop, plus the obvious 4 outs from the three. He was getting 3:1 just from straight pot odds to call, plus the implied odds from likely stacking you off when his blank-seeming gutshot paid you off. I really don't think that this was that terrible of a flop call, honestly. Definitely not something I would do in a $22 game but in a $215 where you have to push marginal +EV edges to win, then it probably was correct.

So now the turn action. Is there a way to see this coming? Well, I guess you would have to know the sort of hands that Spyhard would call you with here. I think I would be more worried about 35 than about A5 here, but not really all that much against either.

Here's another way to think about it. He flatcalled your weak flop bet. That very often means monster or draw. You have what is almost certainly the best hand based on the preflop and flop action, since you have the third nuts. That means he is almost certainly on a draw, which means that he will either fold the river when he misses or bet when he is now beating you, which means you want to charge him to keep drawing on the turn. I think a bet of 2/3 pot on the turn is best, and under no circumstances fold at any future point.

[Gramps]

I take back my comment about A5s being a hand SPB wouldn't play there. I was clearly wrong about that.

Still, this hand is one where you just shrug and say, "oh well." NL hold em is a game of risks, you have to take them at some point to get everyone's chips and win, I think the risk you took here checking the Turn was worth it given the probable range of hands & the fact that it could set you up to get all/most of the rest of your opponent's chips (a good amount compared to pot size you're putting at risk, etc.).

[stripsqueez]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's think about what he might have put you on. If you have Kx, then he has 3 A outs on the flop, plus the obvious 4 outs from the three. He was getting 3:1 just from straight pot odds to call, plus the implied odds from likely stacking you off when his blank-seeming gutshot paid you off. I really don't think that this was that terrible of a flop call, honestly. Definitely not something I would do in a $22 game but in a $215 where you have to push marginal +EV edges to win, then it probably was correct

[/ QUOTE ]

its bugger all to do with ev - on the flop he has 4 clean outs and it costs around 20% of his stack - counting an A as an out is awful - at this point in the tourney if he loses this pot he consigns himself to desperate in another 10-15 hands and throws away a bunch of fold equity his stack might of had

if he hits an A and it does happen to be good then his implied odds will probably be small or non existant and if he does get action when an A hits his tourney is likely over - he doesnt have close to the implied odds to call the flop for his gutser

i think he made a mistake pre-flop - he made it a big mistake on the flop

stripsqueez - chickenhawk