heads up play

I just want to confirm a hunch ... if I'm heads up with another player and there's about $200 in the pot $20-$40 7-Card Stud. On 6th street I have 2 pair and a 4 flush (no flush cards dead) vs a straight (Assume you know for sure that the other player has it). Is my hand a huge underdog and with the current pot a hand that should be folded?

Rocky,


I'm not sure if you meant that it is heads-up on 6th street or there were only two players at the table for the entire hand. Either way, you have up to 13 outs--9 live flush cards, and potentially 4 live pair cards which will give you a full house (you didn't mention if these cards were live or dead).


If you started with 8 players, then you've seen at least 16 cards (your 6, 4 from the other player, and 6 other folded doorcards), so there are 36 unseen cards (if it was heads up all along, then there are 42 unseen cards). Your chances of making a flush are 9/36, or 3 to 1 against improving. If the cards that can give you a full house are totally live, your chances of making a full house are 4/36, or 8 to 1 against improving. Combined that is 13/36 or 1.8 to 1 against improving.


So your chances of improving are either 3 to 1 against or 1.8 to 1 against. Either way, there is sufficient money in the pot for you to call a $40 bet and see one more card, since the pot is laying 5 to 1 (or 6 to 1 if you haven't included your opponent's bet in the $200).


If it was heads up and you have only seen 10 cards instead of 16, then your chances of improving are either 9/42 or 13/42. Even in the worst case scenario, there is still sufficient money in the pot to justify calling a $40 bet, as 9/42 is 3.7 to 1 against improving.


You aren't the Rocky who plays at the Mirage and wears headphones, are you?

Folding is ridiculous.

Nothing personal, but if you have to even ask a question such as this, perhaps $20-40 is too high of a limit for you.


Best of Luck,

CJ

no especially if your opponent will check the river.


Pat

No I play in Calfiornia ... Thanks for your response. The reason I posed this question was that in the real game I was heads up the entire game and I actually ended up raising the other player on 6th street. I knew he would bet the river (check if I raised) and my raise on 6th basically gave me a free card(I was going to call the river anyway). It went down exactly, he checked the river and I lost with my two pair. I then ran the simulation on poker probe to see if my raise was a mistake (not taking into account the free card). I must have misconfigured poker probe because it showed me to be a 9 to 1 underdog. And to be quite honest I never bothered to sit down and mentally do the math myself (rather then relying on the simulation).

I never take anything personal. Thank you for the advice.

was a fine play since U knew your opponent would check his Str8 on 7th.

OTOH,had U connected with your flush/full-house,U would have extracted an extra 40.00 from your opponent.

Congratulations on a nice 6th Str. play.

Happy pokering,

Sitting Bull

if your opponent is tight and he was scared enough of that raise, it might even be right to try and bluff this one once you don't improve, hopefully you were showing a lot of your flush to help you out too, if there were that many live ones you are showing two maybe three. If you have two and a pair, or three to the flush showing i think that a raise wouldn't be terrible, assuming of course, that he's the type of guy who can throw down a striaght. I assume he is, espcially in 20-40

Do you honestly think that he will throw away a sraight on 6th to a raise head up? Unless he has 4 flush cards showing(which I don't think is the case considering his 6th street bet)I know few players who are capable of this. He would be getting 280-40=6.5-1 on his call if rocky raises. If rocky knows he has a straight then why wouldn't he just fold on the river if he doesn't improve? I think he just cost himself an extra 40 and the possibility of having to call a re-raise. Also, by not raising he may get him for 80 on the river. Unless there is some other reason for raising then just getting a "free" showdown, then I think it is a mistake.

your opponent has" means that there is a very high probability that U can accurately read his hand.

There is ALWAYS a chance that your "read" is incorrect.

With a reasonably large pot,U must still lean toward calling with your 2 pairs--he STILL might be bluffing with a probability high enough to make the call correct.

So the raise on 6th Str. will usually cost the same amount if U plan on calling the river without raising on 6th.--since U expect him to check the river.

If U check 6th,he will most likely bet the river and U will most likely call anyway.

However,raising will gain U an extra bet if U improve since U expect him to call the river when U bet.

OTOH,if the pot is laying U less than,for example,9 to 1,and your accuracy read is better than 90% on your opponent,then I agree 100% with your post--call 6th but fold the river with your unimproved hand--U will then save 1BB.

The correct strategy depends on the level of confidence U have in your "read" vs. the effective pot odds .


Happy pokering,

Larry"Sitting Bull"Duplessis


Happy pokering,

Sitting Bull

Even if you don't fold, I still think that raising to get a "free" showdown is an overworked play. It still costs the same to call on 6th and 7th as it does to raise on 6th and get checked to on 7th. You put yourself in a positon to get re-raised that you will have to call and there goes your "free"showdown. I think the better play is to call on 6th and on 7th if you don't improve and if you do you will be in a good spot for a check-raise on 7th. I know that you will gain 1 bb when you do improve but don't think it's worth the risk. The river check-raise does the same thing with less risk involved. Also, you are the one that gave me the pot odds lecture, so I don't think there is any chance you will get a straight to fold because of those same pot odds. In addition, I think typical players payoff in this situation far too frequently eventhough they are getting good pot odds,as they use this as there excuse;though I don't think a fold is the best play it just depends on the player and previous action. I sometimes use this play in holdem when I have position with a marginal hand,but I still think it is overworked,used too frequently,and not as profitable as people think.