Heads-Up Win Percentage?

[luvrhino]

After another Heads-Up loss in a $215 SnG, i started pondering the discrepancy between my Heads Up record in $215s (a mediocre 10-9) and $55s (an unsustainably good 24-6). I ascribe the difference to mostly being sample size, luck, and the fact that a few times in $215s i found myself holding on to a thread, just eeking out 2nd over 3rd, whereas i've only done that once or twice in the $55s. Anyway, i was wondering what Heads-Up winning percentage was common for people in the low 40s% ITM, ~35% ROI, so that i know when i should concentrate for leaks there.

[poindexter]

Are you super tight on the bubble or do you take more chances? I think 10-9 would be a very good record for someone who plays super tight on the bubble. If you take more chances in order to increase your chance for 2nd or 1st then you will need a better win percentage to make up for the times you go out in 4th. Often times the chip leader is that guy who is more aggressive then he should be and had some luck on his side. He risked a lot to be chip leader and you played smart poker to be 2nd or 3rd in chips. He will win more often then not because of his chip lead. Have you kept track of stack sizes heads up? I bet you go in as a dog more often then not. I’ve also had very good HU stats in the 50's but this is the 200's. LAG player is much better HU here.

[luvrhino]

I haven't kept track of stack sizes, but i'm much looser as the blinds go up. As an indicator, i have more 5ths and 6ths than 2nd and 3rds. As you've probably noticed from playing me, i'm a bit of a tight-ass early...

[poindexter]

I am the same way but not a loose as you late in the tournament. My stats are not great heads up but my ITM is very good. I’m not saying your way is wrong, if it works for you great. Yesterday I was in third with 900 and blind position against 4th who had $800. I uncharacteristically raised KQ into 2nd place BB (a $200 regular) Gambling that he didn’t have a premium hand and would fold any non-premium hand as any smart player would. I was right he didn’t have a premium hand! But wrong about his calling standards and his skill level. He calls with Axo and reraises me all in on a Kxx flop. The turn brings the 2nd A and I go out in 4th. This is why I don’t play loose later in the sngs.

[theghost]

[ QUOTE ]
He calls with Axo and reraises me all in on a Kxx flop. The turn brings the 2nd A and I go out in 4th.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't you want to be up against him in this situation if he plays like this? He was dead to 3 outs and got lucky - wouldn't you play it the same next time?

[poindexter]

not chance in hell. The only reason I even made this move is because I thought he was a good player and who respected me and would only call with a premium hand.

[theghost]

Could you elaborate? I feel like I'm missing something. You play a lot higher than I do so I'm curious to hear your logic.

At this point it's shorthanded (4 players). I think your KQ is a monster preflop hand that hits top pair, excellent kicker on the flop.

He has Ax which is ok preflop, but not great - a mistake to call you. Once you hit your pair he's losing bigtime, yet gets all his chips in against you. Why is this a bad thing?

[poindexter]

Sorry I must of misunderstood. I wouldn’t dream of folding after the K flopped, it would be insane. I was talking about not raising in the first place. I felt like the player calling my raise would fear me due to the fact that he understands bubble play and respects me enough to know I would only raise with a very good hand. In other words I would need a hand like KK or AA and possibly Aks to raise in this spot against a bad player due to the fact bad players call to much. Since I gave him credit for being a thinking player I felt it was a safe move to raise in with KQ and gamble that he is not on a premium hand. My other alternative which I would have taken if I wouldn’t have thought so hard would be to make 4th place stack have to get lucky first.

[Irieguy]

One factor that people fail to consider when evaluating 2 and 3-handed stats is the fact that, over time, the quality of your short-handed opponents will be much better than the quality of the 10-handed field.

So, while a 40% ITM is 10% better than "average," you probably can't expect to be 10% better than your HU opponent on average. I think 1/3 of that is the upper limit of sustainability. So if you are a winning player, you probably can't do much better or worse than a 47% - 52% HU win rate.

Over very large samples, your 1st/2nd/3rd percentages will be very similar. It's nice if your 1sts are the most common... but they won't be by much.

Irieguy

[RcrdBoy]

[ QUOTE ]
I was talking about not raising in the first place. I felt like the player calling my raise would fear me due to the fact that he understands bubble play and respects me enough to know I would only raise with a very good hand. In other words I would need a hand like KK or AA and possibly Aks to raise in this spot against a bad player due to the fact bad players call to much. Since I gave him credit for being a thinking player I felt it was a safe move to raise in with KQ and gamble that he is not on a premium hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

So are you saying that you wouldn't raise KQ from the SB because he might call you with Axo?

In this situation you have the best hand enough that I can't ever imagine folding KQo from the SB when folded to short handed.

I also can't imagine that if you were in the BB that you would fold an A here. Getting 3 - 1 and expecting a wide variety of hands you could well have the best hand. I would never expect a raise from the SB to be just a top3 or 4 hand. I would expect it to be above average, but Axo is also above average.

Obivously, blinds and relative stack sizes are important, but I think your example is good play by everyone. You just got unlucky when he spiked his A.

Am I the only one that sees it this way?

[jerrybai125]

My heads up win percentage in the 215s is 60% after 700 tourneys, but I think thats due more to the case that when it gets down to heads up I usually will have more chips than my opponent, but that also leads me to get a lot of 3rds.

[poindexter]

If I somehow knew he had Axo and he would call I would be on auto fold. I also would never make this bet if I knew he would call with any 2 random cards. The only reason I bet here is because I felt a fold was highly probable. The difference between 3rd and 4th is $400 or $0. I dont care if im the favorite to win this hand at 75% or what ever it is. It is not worth risking the booby prize here when 4th place stack will be forced to risk it before me. I love being in 4th when players play their cards and not their situations. I just sit back and root for the big stack.