One for Mason

[na4bart]

How far out under the bell curve is this? Unusual, very unusual or what?

In one particular 10/20 game over the period of a week ( about 30 hours) I am dealt KK 12 times. 1x pick up the blinds, 1x chop with other KK, lose 10x.

[Mason Malmuth]

I'll let others elaborate.

Best wishes,
Mason

[na4bart]

....

[NLSoldier]

[ QUOTE ]
I'll let others elaborate.

Best wishes,
Mason

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL! One of the funniest replies ever!

[The Dude]

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

[na4bart]

This was actually a serious question. Get your sorry asses in gear.

[Kevin J]

It's certainly nothing off the charts if that's what you're asking. When I first started playing, I counted 11 straight losses with pocket kings. But it didn't really matter, because I was a losing player anyway. Once I started beating the game I stopped keeping track of such things. It's irrelevant.

[na4bart]

True, but interesting nonetheless

[J.A.Sucker]

I have calculated the probabilty of this happening, and it's insane. I won't show the math here, due to space limitations. Needless to say, if such an occurance as your recent luck is possible, we better all gear up for the giant asteroid hurtling toward the Earth, whose probability of wiping out all of humanity is routine by comparison.

[squeezed data]

squeak!

[Rick Nebiolo]

Bart,

The fact is that looking backward after a recent series of unlucky/bad events (which is the only time you will usually look backward) it isn't at all unusual to find that you have run bad/unlucky.

Another way of looking at this is that flipping a fair coin a billion times results in a distribution that is very close to 50 percent heads and 50 percent tails (the expectation is exactly 50 percent heads). But in that series of flips there will be some streaks and those are the ones you will remember.

BTW, many years ago math/stat geeks (in a math/stat geek magazine) looked at a season of shooting streaks for an NBA team that shot very close to 50% (this was before the NBA played defense). The results showed that shooting was no streakier than what would be expected by flipping a coin, yet everyone thinks shooting is streaky.


~ Rick

PS The best thing to do in a game is not talk about it, your bad luck stories inspire your opponents to get tricky (e.g., checkraise with an underpair to an ace high board the next time you hold KK).

[AviD]

If you were sitting live in an odd number seat on an even numbered day, this could happen, in fact its almost certain...but not nearly as certain as sitting in an even numbered seat on an odd day. Now this all assumes you are sitting a full table of 10 players, if not...adjust the probability of these calculations based on the number of players such that if you are less than 6 players even seats and even days the probability is easily doubled, maybe even tripled, whereas odd seats on odd says make this as much as 4 or 5 times as likely.

Now if this was all online, just reverse the above but be sure to add in the multi table and mixed tournament and ring game factors, otherwise the probability might deviate by approximately 5.62% or so.

So ummmm yeah this happens to me about once every 50 hands or so. KK is such a loser, fold that preflop half as much as you fold AA preflop...its the only winning play there is when dealing with these big pockets man!

[Lawrence Ng]

[ QUOTE ]
I have calculated the probabilty of this happening, and it's insane. I won't show the math here, due to space limitations. Needless to say, if such an occurance as your recent luck is possible, we better all gear up for the giant asteroid hurtling toward the Earth, whose probability of wiping out all of humanity is routine by comparison.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL!!! Best post of the week.

[mks]

Let P(X) be the probability that you get KK 12x, yada yada.
Let P(Y) be the probability that you are moron.

P(X)=1-P(Y).

[na4bart]

No... this is the best post of the day lol. Much thanks for the humor.

[Ray Zee]

this stuff happens all the time. why everytime i hear from someone who just got busted out of a tournament or got broke after being staked, they always got aces beat by some stupid hand like nine four or something. it makes you want to fold all good hands.

holy s--t what was that streaking across the sky.

[DeeJ]

Disregarding the blinds pickup, and the tie, if you're winning ~ 60% of KK hands (a guess without my stats to hand) then you are looking at 0.4 ^ 10 or about one in ten thousand. Given the fact you tied one you could call that a either half-win or another example of being extremely unlucky /images/graemlins/grin.gif

I posted a similar (poster = math retard) question here you may be interested in regarding a bad AKo run. 17 out of 19 missed flops....

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Board=probability&Number=113 2095&Forum=f11&Words=&Searchpage=0&Limit=25&Main=1 132095&Search=true&where=bodysub&Name=11330&datera nge=1&newerval=1&newertype=y&olderval=&oldertype=& bodyprev=#Post1132095

[ddubois]

[url= ... is your friend