7cs: heads-up vs bring-in

Use to think 3 overcards to the bring-in was a

statistical favorite when heads-up. The follow-

ing is the return on the dollar according to

a 100k no fold turbo 7cs simulation.


(X,X,)2c:$1.07

(Qd,8h,)3s:$0.93


(X,X,)2c:$1.04

(Qd,8d,)3s:$0.96


(X,X,)2c:$0.87

(Qd,8d,)3d:$1.13


I Know this kind of information has limited

value. Still, if anyone finds it useful, I'll

continue to post.

i dont think it is very useful. the matchups are so close that even if they are accurate they should not change how you should play. presumably you so not advocate not raising here with three overcards because you are not a favorite.


One way to look at it is from the position of the bring in. would you routinely call against a raiser because you are a very slight favorite against three random overcards?


you should "continue to post."


pat


Pat

I think that this is extremelu eseful information.

It shows you that no matter what you have , you should try to steal before if you are the last person to act. It had a lot of value especially in higher stakes games with high ante when stealing is the part of the winning strategy. Please continue to post those match ups


bigstu

It's interesting if you will continue to post these match-ups not by a mere statistical point of view but for a starting subject to discuss with 2+2 stud posters.


IMO In the higher games knowing some ante-stealing match-ups probably doesn't help very much since the very good players can easily manipulate the opponents.


Marco

I'm trying to figure out what type of hands

would have a slight advantage over the bring-in.

From there, anything better would be worth a

raise. So far it appears the 3 flush falls into

the "better" catagory and a 2 flush without any

thing else except a Q doesn't qualify.

I note that the bring-in's upcard is a deuce and one of the opponent's "overcards" is a trey.


The only way a trey can be an overcard to the bring-in's downcards is if those downcards are both deuces, i.e. the bring-in is rolled up!


What happens if the bring-in's upcard is (say) a six, and the opponent's cards are all higher?

For starters, the 3 is not an overcard. The bring-in likely has two cards bigger than 3 in the hole or has a pair of 2's. Also, the 8 is not likely to be an overcard to both hole cards either.


Also, Q83 of 3 suits is about as weak a hand as possible in stud since it has hardly any straight possibilities (K83 would be weaker in that regard) or flush possibilities. Adding just a two-flush is not very significant.


If you want to try an overcard simulation try running (x,x)2c vs. (Ah,Qs)9c or (Ah,Qs)Tc. The 9 is a minimal overcard but makes straights less likely. The T is more likely to be an overcard and increases straight possibilities.

Specify the exact cards you want and I'll be glad

to run the simulation. If anyone who has the

turbo program and wants help setting up a no

fold profile for the 7cs or 7cs8, let me know.

Basically each player put a dollar in the pot

and then no-bet/no-fold to the showdown. I find

this approach more helpful in the 7cs8 simulation

because you can compare hands without sorting

out split pots and scoops.

(X,X,)2c:$0.87

(Ah,Qs,)Tc:$1.13


This is surprising in that the A,Q,T is a 1.3-1

favorite same as the three flush in oringinal

post. Results are rounded off to the nearest

cent and I rounded down for this example and

rounded up for the three flush.

It's still deceptive because you're rarely going to play to the end heads-up vs a bring-in.


I don't know if Turbo tells you what the results are on fifth street, but that's what you're more interested in than the 7th street results. I think you'll find that AQT is a much bigger favorite to be ahead on 5th than on 7th.


Lin