Does Bush need to take Florida and Ohio to win election?

[Mano]

On sites such as http://www.electoral-vote2.com/ it appears that Bush must take both Ohio and Florida in order to win the election. Does this seem accurate? It seems to me the favorite in the election would be the candidate that would win if Florida and Ohio were split. Any thoughts?

[LaggyLou]

You have to keep in mind that this site is only a snapshot of the very latest poll, and gives a candidate a state even if he has a 1% lead and the poll's MOE is 3% or more. In today's snapshot there are a number of states that will likely go the other way..i.e., Hawaii shows for Bush, but will likely go for Kerry, and Colorado shows for Kerry, but will likely go for Bush. Let's say, for the sake of argument, however, that switches in CO, NM, and HI from what is shown in the current map will balance out.

If Bush loses Ohio, he can still win by winning Iowa and either Wisconsin or Minnesota. Personally, I think Minnesota is a long shot, and that if he wins Minnesota he's winning Wisconsin anyway, so I'd concentrate on Winsonsin and Iowa. He could also win by picking up PA, but that's unlikely.

If Bush loses Florida, he's likely toast. To win, he'd have to sweep MN, IA and WI. Or pick up PA and another state, but I don't see a scenario where Bush loses Florida and wins PA. But you have to think that to be declared the winner in FL Kerry will have to win decisively -- i.e., by 100,000 votes or more -- which seems unlikely. Any "close" result will result in the state going for Bush. And, if Kerry is winning in Florida decisively, he is probably also winning Ohio and Bush is toast anyway.

Personally, I still believe that a sweep of the following states: OH, FL, IA, WI, MN, WV, NM, and NV -- and maybe throw in CO and MI, too -- is possible by either candidate. But it will likely be closer. That having been said, I don't see a likely scenario where either guy wins without winning Ohio.