Kerry +123 at Pinny [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

anatta

10-27-2004, 02:24 PM

So last week it was +150. For those that don't know, that is how much you will win if you bet $100. Last night it was 130. This morning 127. Now 123. +123 is about 45%. The line has dipped like this before, with Bush rebounding.

I strongly suspect that fan money is on Bush. I have no real basis for this, other than Bush supporters tend to be more fanatical than Kerry supporters, who are fanatical in their hate of Bush, but not for Kerry. I think more Laker fans bet on the Lakers than Laker haters bet against them (check out Piston v Laker lines, scewed toward LA).

I also suspect at least 10 or so point is due, correctly, to the idea that if its a tie, Bush will "find" a way if you know what I mean. House of Reps, Fla Gov, Supreme Court, all are intangibles in his favor.

Bush is spinning like a mother on this missing explosives, I think he will be somewhat successful in this regard. Kerry has played his hand, that TV commercial maybe overplay. Cost of war billions more, not good for Bush. He is on the defensive, but some teams are better on the defensive, see Ravens, or counter-punching.

Matty

10-27-2004, 05:53 PM

Kerry jumped from about 40% to 45% the last couple days on tradesports.com as well. That's about the same size of boost he got out of the debates as well.

Matty

10-28-2004, 05:26 PM

Now he's up two more points to 47%.

anatta

10-28-2004, 05:51 PM

Yeah, Pinny line is 124 but it was 129 this morning. So a gambler who likes Kerry now should take Pinny right now than your line at 47%, which is more like +113.

Of course, if you like Kerry you mighta got him a few months ago at +200 or so. Who knew??

lu_hawk

10-28-2004, 06:24 PM

i follow the futures market at intrade.com it, bush peaked there at 70% following his convention, he was at 60% earlier this week, now he is at 51%. really what i think the market is saying is that "we thought bush would win because he is the incumbent, but on second thought now that it is getting close we really have no idea what is going to happen."

i don't know what will happen either, i think kerry has more of a surprise factor on his side in that there can be a sizable number of people that come out and vote for him that aren't captured by polling and that have never voted before.

oscark

10-28-2004, 07:56 PM

And at Tradesports, Bush and Kerry are basically even. This all happened in about the last hour. What was it? The terror video?

largeeyes

10-28-2004, 08:13 PM

I believe intrade and tradesports are actually the same market.

oscark

10-28-2004, 08:23 PM

I agree. I was talking about Pinnacle and Tradesports, which are different.

anatta

10-28-2004, 08:49 PM

Its 118 at Pinnacle. This is the lowest I have seen and I expect it to fall further if what you say is correct about the other sites.

Why?? THE VIDEO OF THE MISSING WEAPONS!!! ABC News has got the video that makes it really hard to argue these weapons disappeared pre-invasion.

Non_Comformist

10-28-2004, 08:54 PM

Could someone please explain to me what this means as far as who is now favored and how it has changed. Please assume I am retarded.

LinusKS

10-28-2004, 08:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, Pinny line is 124 but it was 129 this morning. So a gambler who likes Kerry now should take Pinny right now than your line at 47%, which is more like +113.

Of course, if you like Kerry you mighta got him a few months ago at +200 or so. Who knew??

[/ QUOTE ]

I got him at 150. :-)

anatta

10-28-2004, 09:19 PM

An underdog has a + in front of it, the favorite a -.

ie Kerry +125, Bush -135 means if you bet 100 on Kerry you win $125. It also tells you that you need to bet $135 on Bush to win $100. The ratio stays the same if you bet more or less than $100 on Kerry or $135 on Bush.

The closer Kerry gets to 100, the closer he is to even money or 50 percent chance.

So these numbers can be converted to percentages. +125 is about 45 percent (44.5%). If you think Kerry will win 50 percent of the time, and you are offered +125, then it is profitable to bet on Kerry. If you think he will win 45 percent, then +125 is break even.

Non_Comformist

10-28-2004, 09:37 PM

Thank you, I am no longer retarded

Dynasty

10-28-2004, 10:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Why??

[/ QUOTE ]

It's the state polls. Ohio (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_sbys.html#oh) is trending towards Kerry. If he wins that state, Bush will likely be forced to win the Electoral College by getting a combination among Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, and New Mexico.

Non_Comformist

10-28-2004, 10:11 PM

This back and forth is going to give me an ulcer.

I think Bush is going to have to pull an Gore-Florida-esq weekend marathon in Ohio.

tubbyspencer

10-30-2004, 09:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, Pinny line is 124 but it was 129 this morning. So a gambler who likes Kerry now should take Pinny right now than your line at 47%, which is more like +113.

Of course, if you like Kerry you mighta got him a few months ago at +200 or so. Who knew??

[/ QUOTE ]

I got him at 150. :-)

[/ QUOTE ]

I placed the bet for you a while back. You only got him at +148 - but still not bad.

Michael Davis

10-30-2004, 09:44 PM

Time to bet on Bush!

-Michael

LinusKS

10-30-2004, 10:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, Pinny line is 124 but it was 129 this morning. So a gambler who likes Kerry now should take Pinny right now than your line at 47%, which is more like +113.

Of course, if you like Kerry you mighta got him a few months ago at +200 or so. Who knew??

[/ QUOTE ]

I got him at 150. :-)

[/ QUOTE ]

I placed the bet for you a while back. You only got him at +148 - but still not bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

LIAR!!!

It was 150.

You owe me $2.