Get this.

[Grim_Garrett]

As stupid as this seems, i have recently found the one hand that for whatever reason i play all the time....as long as there is no outrageuos raise preflop.

I read and have studied hand distributions on which cards seem to appear most on the flop and most on the rest of the board.... it is mostly 6 7 8 and usually a 9 or 10 on river....more times than not. This doesnt mean that the flop is always 10 9 8 7 6 but those cards appear more than others.

So lately i have been playing 10 - 8 suited. I have folded it off-suited quite a few times because i dont chase but since playing 10-8 ive hit flush draw and open enders on flop....sometimes both...ive folded 10-8 to an all-in and flop delt me a boat.

No lie that i have won more times with 10-8 and hit more of my str8s and flushes, and thank god i have only lost with that flush, although a marginal one, to a higher one ONCE.

I want others to check this hand out for internet poker to tell me what you think.

[dogmeat]

Go to cardplayer.com and use the hand calculator to see what you can expect from this hand against others. You can also use twodimes.net - see the results.

Dogmeat /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[thomastem]

Do you perform a rain dance before each session?

[Phill S]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you perform a rain dance before each session?

[/ QUOTE ]

# its raining ten, haleightua #

ill get me coat...

Phill

[josie_wales]

Guys,

I think you need to cut this guy some slack...

He is after all not talking about 10-8 off suit.

We're talking suited, baby, suited.

In all seriousness, take dogmeats advice and analyze this hand a bit more.

jw

[thomastem]

[ QUOTE ]
Guys,

I think you need to cut this guy some slack...

He is after all not talking about 10-8 off suit.

We're talking suited, baby, suited.

In all seriousness, take dogmeats advice and analyze this hand a bit more.

jw

[/ QUOTE ]

10-8 suited does have value in NL if you can get in cheap because of the deception/implied odds but you didn't hear that from me.

[Grim_Garrett]

Im not saying that i play it all the time...if you all wouldve read i meant went it was cheap.

If any of you also watch or read about poker the on ebiggest thing that most pros say they want to practice on is trusting their instincts. People who tend to only play great hands will become known as that and will not get paid off as much as they should. Their has to be a deception factor. Also people who tend to only play great hnads suffer more bad beats when a K 7 hits two pair and they play AK to the river and pay the other guy off.

If you do not switch it up you get burned ,,, its that simple.

Also check the thread, forgot which one, but its about the hand tracker for hands delt under this forum and look at which cards come out most.... and besides, everyone should have a supertion, it can only help you , and trust me i do not play this hand all the time nor do i chase it saying it hits, please pay mroe attention to the above mention post that i typed.

[Alobar]

god bled retards like you, you make poker beautiful

note: I'm not calling you a retard because you play T8s, I'm calling you a retard because of your logic

[Grim_Garrett]

Alobar :: your on this sight and have obviously never in your life read sklansky

oh if you have then ill tell you which book and which page to turn to to read where this logic is exceptable!

Retard: please, if thats the best you can do why even post, i take it your the type of player who never gets paid off and then crys about it.

[axioma]

>> (Hand# 29986304) XXX won $64 with A Straight Seven to Jack

T8 for the win!

[Alobar]

[ QUOTE ]
Alobar :: your on this sight and have obviously never in your life read skanlsky

oh if you have then ill tell you which book and which page to turn to to read where this logic is exceptable!

Retard: please, if thats the best you can do why even post, i take it your the type of player who never gets paid off and then crys about it.

[/ QUOTE ]

who is sklansky??

"retard" wasnt supposed to be some coup de gras, mearly the word most fitting of your ignorant views

I'm reminded of an old expression "when arguing with a fool, make sure he is not doing the same", and as such anymore time I waste upon you would make that expression fitting, and is also pointless due to the affore mentioned "retardness" you posses. So ta ta, GL with your "supersitions" and dwindling bankroll

[Thythe]

Grim, take a deck of cards and deal it out a million times. Do you think you'll see a pattern? No...each card comes out an equal amount of times.

[Grim_Garrett]

Id play you on pokerstars anytime any day...you name the structure and ill sit..... and trust me ...your covered.

[drewjustdrew]

Difficult post to get through. I think typing and spelling lessons are in order.

[Steph Djordjevic]

[ QUOTE ]
god bled retards like you, you make poker beautiful

note: I'm not calling you a retard because you play T8s, I'm calling you a retard because of your logic

[/ QUOTE ]

Not nice. In his defense, I think he meant that marginal hands can be playable if you know how the make all the right moves post-flop.

I don't agree that 10-8 suited will be a moneymaker, but its not nice to call him names.

One time, I was involved in a critical situation. My team, the Ampipe Bulldogs were about to beat our archrival, Walnut Heights. It was very important for our town to win this game because Ampipe is a dying coal-mining town and we needed to restore some community pride and esteem through high school football. On the other hand, Walnut Heights is a snobby suburb and all the residents are accountants, doctors, and lawyers.

But I digress. All Coach had to do was have Rifleman kneel on the ball and we win the game. In the alternative, I felt it would be wise if Rifleman threw me a jump ball on a flag route (I have mad hops for a 5'4" cornerback).

Coach called for a fullback run, up the gut. It ended up Coach Nickerson's ass, because there was a torrential downpour and the ball was fumbled. Walnut Heights scored on a last-second play when they set up an illegal pick, then committed offensive pass interference, an illegal chop block, clipping, and the ol' high-low, all against yours truly. Despite the penalties (not called) and my efforts, I could not make up the 10" height advantage the receiver had over me and they scored.

They scored and won, dammit. Did I call people names? Did I call people retards?

No. I got drunk and threw trash on Coach Nick's lawn. I got kicked off the team, and now I have to make all the right moves to get a football scholarship.

Lesson. Don't call people names, its not nice.

[slickpoppa]

Grim, you are correct, 10-8s is a good hand, but 10-5 offsuit is even better because every straight has either a 10 or a 5 in it. Also, since it is offsuit it can make two different flushes instead of one.

[Grim_Garrett]

OK JESUS CHRIST!!!

If you would read the other posts before commenting you would see that im talking about the patteren of internet deals that is mention in the thread in this forum about getting hand stats from PArty Poker. I have also done the stat thing and came out with the same thing the guy posted on there that more times than not 3 and 10 th seats get the most pairs and get payed off more than average and that the flops hit more of 879 than any other combo.

Read what im talking about before throwing out things they have nothing to do with this post!

[drewjustdrew]

Steph,

Weren't you the retard that should have just knocked the ball down on fourth and long, instead of intercepting the pass close to the goal line? Maybe you should look in the mirror as to who was to blame in that game.

[jakethebake]

You haven't looked deep enough. Clubs come up more than any other suit too. So you should always be all-in with 8Tc. Hopefully you'll be up against AA. /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

[busguy]

Grim,

Seen any UFO's lately??

Do YOU know who killed JFK ??

I think your wacked but most likely not a retard.

/images/graemlins/blush.gif busguy

[jakethebake]

Please! PM David and tell him that certain cards come up more than others. We'll all enjoy the response!
[ QUOTE ]
Alobar :: your on this sight and have obviously never in your life read sklansky

[/ QUOTE ]

[Steph Djordjevic]

[ QUOTE ]
Steph,

Weren't you the retard that should have just knocked the ball down on fourth and long, instead of intercepting the pass close to the goal line? Maybe you should look in the mirror as to who was to blame in that game.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ah, the age-long debate continues. Really, heare is what happened:

[ QUOTE ]
they set up an illegal pick, then committed offensive pass interference, an illegal chop block, clipping, and the ol' high-low, all against yours truly. Despite the penalties (not called) and my efforts, I could not make up the 10" height advantage the receiver had over me and they scored.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would have knocked the ball down, but the slot-back was holding my hands behind my back. Therefore, I had to make an exaggerated motiong to free my hands. This motion made it appear I was trying to catch the ball, but that was not the case. I even tried to get my foot in the air to knock that thing down.

[Baulucky]

This is consistent with the predictive results of my $100K a piece PPPM (Party Poker Pattern Mapper).

Congratulations for making a rare find.

[jakethebake]

Oh weeelllllll....I can see where a random hand generator would be muuuuch different from dealing actual cards.

[BottlesOf]

I think you're an idiot.

[B00T]

My eyes hurt from this post...

As Alobar said, your actual results and application of playing it has merit. Your reasoning behind it is ridiculous.

My winrate with 83 at 300-600 blinds in S+G tournaments is 74%. I play it because my birthday is August 3rd. I'll just ignore the fact I actually win with it because I am aggressive againist passive opponents on the bubble.

I'll plead ignorance and not realize why it is profitable, but instead I'll make up some stupid story.

Congratulations you are a genius.

[busguy]

How would one go about getting his hands on one of those ??

I'd be willing to pay up to $200 but no more than that.

/images/graemlins/wink.gif busguy

[BottlesOf]

[ QUOTE ]
OK JESUS CHRIST!!!

If you would read the other posts before commenting you would see that im talking about the patteren of internet deals

[/ QUOTE ]

Ohhhhhhh. In that case, you're definitely an idiot. One who has clearly not ever used the search function.

[Baulucky]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd be willing to pay up to $200 but no more than that.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry. This is state-of-the-art technology, and at $100,000 a piece, it's a bargain. You can recover the cost in approximately 150 hours of 4=table play at the 15-30 LHE or the 200 buyin NL at Party and skins.

I really do not expect anyone to pay up, though.

[josie_wales]

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Guys,

I think you need to cut this guy some slack...

He is after all not talking about 10-8 off suit.

We're talking suited, baby, suited.

In all seriousness, take dogmeats advice and analyze this hand a bit more.

jw


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



10-8 suited does have value in NL if you can get in cheap because of the deception/implied odds but you didn't hear that from me.


[/ QUOTE ]

Absolutley TS.

I couldnt agree more. I was just goofin' on him a little.

JW

[busguy]

Damn,

Sorry, I must have missed the "K" on that Hun. If I could recover the investment playing 150 hours at 15/30 then I'm figurin it will take me about 9000+ hours at .5/$1 because I can only seem to concentrate on 2 tables (at the most) at the same time (war injury). I figure if I play 24 hours a day, seven days a week for the next year (24 x 365) I should just about have it. I'm pretty sure that I am up to the task because I'm thinkin that if I want to play with the big boys at the $1/2 level one day, then I better have me one of these "mapping" things so I that I don't get my ass handed to me on a sling.

Thanks again, Good luck and I'll talk to yah all next year.

/images/graemlins/grin.gif busguy

[sfer]

http://images.usatoday.com/money/_photos/2004/03/08/guiness-inside.jpg

[MrHorace]

Hi Grim,
[ QUOTE ]
If any of you also watch or read about poker the on ebiggest thing that most pros say they want to practice on is trusting their instincts.

[/ QUOTE ]
I've been sort of monitoring this albeit anectdotally for a bit. I have very strong instincts, which led me to win more often than not, when playing blackjack. Since I've started playing Hold 'Em, I've not listened so much to my instincts or counterfeited them.
However to quote you, as crazy as it sounds, recently I was in a $2/$4 live game, and just not doing well at all. I was dealt 24o in mid/late position. I thought momentarily about playing this, but of course folded. The flop came 224 rainbow. I've had other situations where I've considered playing a hand, but folded only to have 2 pr hit or something like that. These considerations are stronger than just a reaction to boredom or a tilt movement.
OF COURSE, one needs to rely on more than instinct, but I think your point is that if it's cheap, and you have an instinctual nature about you, it might be good to play. If nothing else to mix up your play. I think I'm going to try to do some 'experimenting' on occassion.
Thanks

[Blarg]

Slickpoppa is correct. Every straight needs either a 10 or a 5 in it. That's the only reason that playing your 10's is having you see more straights -- half the straights in the deck demand that card, and you've got it. You could say the identical thing about playing 5's, though.

[pudley4]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi Grim,
[ QUOTE ]
If any of you also watch or read about poker the on ebiggest thing that most pros say they want to practice on is trusting their instincts.

[/ QUOTE ]
I've been sort of monitoring this albeit anectdotally for a bit. I have very strong instincts, which led me to win more often than not, when playing blackjack. Since I've started playing Hold 'Em, I've not listened so much to my instincts or counterfeited them.
However to quote you, as crazy as it sounds, recently I was in a $2/$4 live game, and just not doing well at all. I was dealt 24o in mid/late position. I thought momentarily about playing this, but of course folded. The flop came 224 rainbow. I've had other situations where I've considered playing a hand, but folded only to have 2 pr hit or something like that. These considerations are stronger than just a reaction to boredom or a tilt movement.
OF COURSE, one needs to rely on more than instinct, but I think your point is that if it's cheap, and you have an instinctual nature about you, it might be good to play. If nothing else to mix up your play. I think I'm going to try to do some 'experimenting' on occassion.
Thanks

[/ QUOTE ]

Selective memory.

[pudley4]

[ QUOTE ]
As stupid as this seems, i have recently found the one hand that for whatever reason i play all the time....as long as there is no outrageuos raise preflop.

I read and have studied hand distributions on which cards seem to appear most on the flop and most on the rest of the board.... it is mostly 6 7 8 and usually a 9 or 10 on river....more times than not. This doesnt mean that the flop is always 10 9 8 7 6 but those cards appear more than others.

So lately i have been playing 10 - 8 suited. I have folded it off-suited quite a few times because i dont chase but since playing 10-8 ive hit flush draw and open enders on flop....sometimes both...ive folded 10-8 to an all-in and flop delt me a boat.

No lie that i have won more times with 10-8 and hit more of my str8s and flushes, and thank god i have only lost with that flush, although a marginal one, to a higher one ONCE.

I want others to check this hand out for internet poker to tell me what you think.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why are there so many idiots around here?

[IndieMatty]

I just played a few rounds of 3/6 on my lunch break, I had to go back uptown to wash my cat, but I digress.

Since I usually muck T8S could you evaluate my play?

Thanks a lot! You can replace Sklansky now as my poker guru!


Evaluate my Play In these hands.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif.
Hero calls, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, CO folds, Button folds, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">BB raises</font>, Hero calls, MP3 folds, <font color="CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, BB calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB calls, Hero calls.

River: (9.50 BB) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB calls, Hero....




Raise the River?


Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Hero raises, <font color="CC3333">SB raises</font>, BB folds.

Final Pot: 1.50 BB


Just limp to disguise my hand?



One more it was pretty amazing I got dealt this in three orbits.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO calls, <font color="CC3333">Button raises</font>, SB folds, Hero calls, UTG calls, MP1 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (10.33 SB) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, CO checks, <font color="CC3333">Button bets</font>, Hero raises, UTG calls, <font color="CC3333">MP1 calls </font>, CO folds, Button calls, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (9.16 BB) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Button raises</font>, Hero raises, UTG folds, <font color="CC3333">MP1 3-bets</font>, Button folds, UTG raises

River: (17.16 BB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Hero bets, UTG raises.

Cap the turn? Definitely Cap the River?

[jakethebake]

If you want limp occasionally to not be obvious or go for the reraise from EP it's o.k. Otherwise I'd try to get all your money in PF. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

I love this thread. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[deacsoft]

Allow me to try to put a close to this near pointless debate.

Let me open by saying I love T-8s. It is my favorite non-large hand. However, the claim that it is reasonable because certain cards flop more than others and other cards appear on the turn and river more often is ridiculous. The laws of math insist that no 3 cards are more likely to appear on the flop than any three others. The only way this could ever even be more likely is if you knew others hole cards of yourself and all others and that no one's hand contained any of the 3 cards. The same concept would carry over to the turn and river cards. Mathematics is fact and not debatable. Therefore this should settle this. If you wish to see what equation could be used to prove this point completely; let me know.

[IndieMatty]

Doesn't there need to be two sides dissagreeing to form a debate.

Here we have one side and 37 others making fun of that one side.

[lorinda]

Read through some old posts here, you will see that although T8 is indeed a decent hand, Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif 5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif has been proved to be the biggest winner on all of the big four sites.

It is named the GrannyMae or GM after the person that discovered this anomaly, and you will find dozens of posts on the subject with winning Hand histories included.

Lori

[Alobar]

I'm gunna go out on a limb here....but you are a retard too

[fluff]

After reading this carefully, I have to agree completely.

T8s is definitly a hand that will hit more than its fair share on the internet, due to predictive patterns in the RNG seeds. I would recommend playing this hand from any position, and possibly even to a raise and 3-bet.

I would also recommend T7s down to T2s, 97s to 94s, and T8o to T6o. All these hands share the same characteristic. Everyone should play these hands almost every time, and it will be definitely positive EV*.




*for me.

[mosta]

[ QUOTE ]
to be some coup de gras,

[/ QUOTE ]

a "blow of fat"? or a coup de grace?

[busguy]

Off topic (but related to this thread).

Is there a difference between an idiot, a moron, and a retard ??

just curious

busguy

[OldLearner]

[ QUOTE ]
Grim, take a deck of cards and deal it out a million times.

[/ QUOTE ]

And get back to us when you have completed this task.

[lorinda]

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre> Class IQ
Idiot below 20
Imbecile 20-49
Moron 50-69
Borderline deficiency 70-79

</pre><hr />

[ QUOTE ]
Idiot Idiot originally meant a person that was not interested in participating in politics (antique Greek, see Athenian democracy).
In ancient Athens, an idiot was a person who declined to take part in public life, such as democratic city government. Since such activities were honorable and could directly affect all citizens, idiot was a term of derision.



Imbecility was a type of mental deficiency less extreme than idiocy and not necessarily inherited. It is now usually subdivided into two categories, known as severe mental retardation and moderate mental retardation.
Moron was defined by the American Association for the Study of the Feeble-Minded in 1910, following work by Henry H. Goddard, as the term for an adult with a mental age between eight and twelve; mild mental retardation is now the more widely-accepted term for this condition. Alternative definitions of these terms based on IQ were also used. For example, the following data based on the Wechsler adult IQ test (WAIS) were used in 1958:


[/ QUOTE ]

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre> Class IQ
Profound mental retardation below 20
Severe mental retardation 20-34
Moderate mental retardation 35-49
Mild mental retardation 50-69
Borderline deficiency 70-79

</pre><hr />

Source: thefreedictionary.com

Lori

[lorinda]

Ironically, an idiot is now someone who actively partakes in politics, often as president, or running for president.

Lori

[Baulucky]

Does this mean that Alobar is a Re-turd?

[jakethebake]

Dammit! I was gonna post this!
/images/graemlins/grin.gif[ QUOTE ]
Doesn't there need to be two sides dissagreeing to form a debate.

Here we have one side and 37 others making fun of that one side.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Alobar]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
to be some coup de gras,

[/ QUOTE ]

a "blow of fat"? or a coup de grace?

[/ QUOTE ]

While the dictionary definition of Coupe De Grace is the killing blow. Coup de gras is the way you see it written most of the time in everyday life. So I went with that one.

[lorinda]

While the dictionary definition of Coupe De Grace is the killing blow. Coup de gras is the way you see it written most of the time in everyday life. So I went with that one.

Does this mean I should start putting "your" instead of "you're" and "loosing" instead of "losing"?

Lori

[jakethebake]

Aces come up more than any other card. There's less ink on the cards and they're therefore lighter so they float to the top of the deck more. Therefore, I'll always play AA. Hmmmmmmmm..... /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[busguy]

Wow, thanks for that.

Who would have guessed that a moron is likely the smartest of the three.

busguy

[jakethebake]

Yea I see it written that way all the time in everyday life.
[ QUOTE ]
While the dictionary definition of Coupe De Grace is the killing blow. Coup de gras is the way you see it written most of the time in everyday life. So I went with that one.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Alobar]

lol, good point.

I think the difference tho is that those words are both used frequently, just used frequently in the wrong context. Where as "Coup de grace" just isnt frequently used, so it isnt familiar

[BIGRED]

[ QUOTE ]
I read and have studied hand distributions on which cards seem to appear most on the flop and most on the rest of the board.... it is mostly 6 7 8 and usually a 9 or 10 on river....more times than not. This doesnt mean that the flop is always 10 9 8 7 6 but those cards appear more than others.

[/ QUOTE ]
Where are you getting this seemingly dumb ass idea? I am actaully tempted to entertain this possibility... after all, there is a remote possibilty that something screwy MIGHT be going on.

Let's take the theory that 9 or T comes out more often on the river.... man this is so dumb, but let's go on. Let's take T, as an example.

Can PokerTracker do a filter to test this idea?
The filter would be

All hands that saw the river card, where the river card is a T.
If you divide this by all hands that saw the river, then the ratio should be 1/13.

I'm not at my home computer now so I can't actually do this yet. I don't use the filter function that extensively, so I'm not even sure if this particular example can be tested... but it sounds simple enough.

Please don't flame me for at least entertaining this idea. But If this experiment comes out contrary to the expected stat, then we're all in trouble.

[lorinda]

All hands that saw the river card, where the river card is a T.
If you divide this by all hands that saw the river, then the ratio should be 1/13.


If you do this, you will find that less aces come on the river than any other card.

Do you see why?

Lori

[B00T]

People just keep making this go on and on and on.

This guy falling into retard too?

The same perecentage of a Ten or a Nine appearing on the river as opposed to the flop would be the SAME.

The reason tens appear that little more infrequently is because (lets say for shorthanded games in general) people are playing AK AQ AJ KQ etc...These hands that are played remove those cards from the deck. Lets say 4 players have AA KK AK and QQ, and they all see the flop. The "tens" will be more likely to come up since none have been dealt causing a flop.

If those 4 people with crap hands like 27 26 4t and 3t are in a hand they will fold or one will steal and there will be no flop.

The rarity of these is why the percentage of nines and tens are .00034% or whatever higher than Aces. Its so simple and the river card will be dealt from the same population pool as the flop where higher cards will most likely be held by a player and not coming out on the FLOP or the RIVER.


Flop and River %'age of tens will be the same not 1/13 though. Peace nimrod.

[Amid Cent]

[ QUOTE ]
Off topic (but related to this thread).

Is there a difference between an idiot, a moron, and a retard ??

just curious

busguy

[/ QUOTE ]


Moron = The guy who thinks online poker is rigged, there are pattern maps and there exists a cash-out curse.

Idiot = The guy whos bluffs at a dry side-pot against an all-in with 56s, allowing the short stack to triple up with 73o.

Retard = OP

Amid C

[Blarg]

I'm sure we're all sweating about that one right now.

[Alobar]

[ QUOTE ]
All hands that saw the river card, where the river card is a T.
If you divide this by all hands that saw the river, then the ratio should be 1/13.


If you do this, you will find that less aces come on the river than any other card.
Do you see why?

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

because hands that go all the way to the river are more likely to have someone holding an Ace involved in them.

now if EVERY hand went to the river, then it would be the same for all cards

[BIGRED]

I will think about what you said, but what's with name calling? I'm not a perfect statistician, so I might be flawed in my logic, but again, no need to be rude.

I wasn't supporting the on-line conspiracy theory. All I was doing was entertaining the idea with a do-able experiment.

[jakethebake]

...he has something here though. It makes perfect sense. I can see where it would be to the site's benefit to have more middle cards fall.

[SomethingClever]

You guys are missing the boat on this T8 thing....

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (8 handed)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 8, T.
UTG folds, UTG+1 raises, Hero 3-bets, MP2 folds, CO calls, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds, UTG+1 caps, Hero calls, CO calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) 4, T, 6 (3 players)
UTG+1 bets, Hero raises, CO folds, UTG+1 3-bets, Hero caps, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (10.75 BB) T (2 players)
UTG+1 bets, Hero raises, UTG+1 3-bets, Hero caps, UTG+1 calls.

River: (18.75 BB) K (2 players)
UTG+1 bets, Hero raises, UTG+1 3-bets, Hero caps, UTG+1 calls.

Final Pot: 26.75 BB
Main Pot: 26.75 BB, between UTG+1 and Hero. &gt; Pot won by Hero (26.75 BB).

Results
UTG+1 has Qs Qc (two pair, queens and tens).
Hero has 8c Td (three of a kind, tens).
Outcome: Hero wins 26.75 BB.

[BIGRED]

My apologies for taking up your precious time and insulting your poker geniuses.

[lorinda]

Mongeron posted these stats a while back, I'm just hoping they are not in the search blackspot.

Edit: As did Jim Easton, however the archiveserver is currently down for me so it will have to wait until later.

Lori

[BIGRED]

[ QUOTE ]
All hands that saw the river card, where the river card is a T.
If you divide this by all hands that saw the river, then the ratio should be 1/13.


If you do this, you will find that less aces come on the river than any other card.

Do you see why?

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

"Do you see why?"... yea sure whatever... let's discuss in the probability forum. Like I said before, I'm not supporting any kind of on-line conspiracy theory. However, I am interested in discussing the logic behind your "Do you see why?"

Here is the link if you would care to explain. I think I know what you're thinking, but let's hear it.

help me understand (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&amp;Number=1184929&amp;page=0&amp;view=e xpanded&amp;sb=5&amp;o=14&amp;fpart=&amp;vc=1&amp;PHPSESSID=)

[lorinda]

The stats have been posted twice before, and the reasons have been explained clearly by others.

I WILL get back to you on the stats, but finding them on a server that is currently running incredibly slowly is a nightmare right now.

Expect at least one link by the end of the day.

Lori

[lorinda]

Jim Easton's party board cards post (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&amp;Board=inet&amp;Number=631318&amp;Forum=, ,f14,,&amp;Words=&amp;Searchpage=2&amp;Limit=25&amp;Main=631318&amp;Se arch=true&amp;where=bodysub&amp;Name=1351&amp;daterange=1&amp;newe rval=1&amp;newertype=y&amp;olderval=&amp;oldertype=&amp;bodyprev=# Post631318)

Lori

[Baulucky]

Or a Profound Re-turd?.

[BIGRED]

Unless I'm missing something, or you misunderstood me, the distribution on the river and at other streets for that matter look about the same, or at least within normal distribution... from eyeballing the numbers. So then doesn't this support my 1/13 ratio?

[lorinda]

You're missing something.

The '2's are nearer 2800 , the 'A's are nearer 2600.

Lori

[busguy]

Hey SC,

I think I might have an idea why you are back playing .5/$1.

/images/graemlins/wink.gif busguy

[SomethingClever]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey SC,

I think I might have an idea why you are back playing .5/$1.

/images/graemlins/wink.gif busguy

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, I didn't play that hand. Piz0wn0reD!!! did.

He normally plays 100 NL and was just [censored] around, I assume /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Brain]

[ QUOTE ]
now if EVERY hand went to the river, then it would be the same for all cards

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope, T8 sooted is no goot.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, MP1 checks.

Turn: (2 BB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, MP1 checks.

River: (2 BB) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, MP1 checks.

Final Pot: 2 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 2 BB, between SB, BB, Hero and MP1.</font> &gt; <font color="white">Pot won by MP1 (2 BB).</font>

Results in white below: <font color="white">
SB has 2c 7h (one pair, sevens).
BB has 4d As (high card, ace).
Hero has 8d Td (one pair, tens).
MP1 has Qd Kc (one pair, kings).
Outcome: MP1 wins 2 BB. </font>

[BIGRED]

[ QUOTE ]
You're missing something.

The '2's are nearer 2800 , the 'A's are nearer 2600.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, If this is a significant difference, then this sample data supports your "less Ace on the river" idea.

How about this then?....if you have an open ended straight of TJQK going into the river and need an Ace or a 9, do you not have 8 outs to make your straight? The probability of hitting an Ace or a 9 is 8/48. However, using this sample data, once would conclude that the probability is less.

So, I guess I don't know why...

[lorinda]

So, I guess I don't know why...

You are not factoring in the times that we already have the Ace in our hand.

Lori

[daryn]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In risposta di:</font><hr />
</font><blockquote><font class="small">In risposta di:</font><hr />
As stupid as this seems, i have recently found the one hand that for whatever reason i play all the time....as long as there is no outrageuos raise preflop.

I read and have studied hand distributions on which cards seem to appear most on the flop and most on the rest of the board.... it is mostly 6 7 8 and usually a 9 or 10 on river....more times than not. This doesnt mean that the flop is always 10 9 8 7 6 but those cards appear more than others.

So lately i have been playing 10 - 8 suited. I have folded it off-suited quite a few times because i dont chase but since playing 10-8 ive hit flush draw and open enders on flop....sometimes both...ive folded 10-8 to an all-in and flop delt me a boat.

No lie that i have won more times with 10-8 and hit more of my str8s and flushes, and thank god i have only lost with that flush, although a marginal one, to a higher one ONCE.

I want others to check this hand out for internet poker to tell me what you think.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why are there so many idiots around here?

[/ QUOTE ]


you mean like the people who respond to trolls? i agree.

[BIGRED]

[ QUOTE ]
So, I guess I don't know why...

You are not factoring in the times that we already have the Ace in our hand.
Lori

[/ QUOTE ]
So then what's the probability of hitting my open ended straight of TJQK on the river? Are you saying I dont have 8 outs?

[MicroBob]

Or maybe the people who respond to the people who respond to trolls.
Or possiblty the people who respond to the people who respond to the people who respond to trolls (like me).

If someone responds to me then they can be a person who responds to the people who responds to the people who responds to the people who responds to trolls.

[lorinda]

Are you saying I dont have 8 outs?

I'm not saying that.

Lori

[BIGRED]

[ QUOTE ]
Are you saying I dont have 8 outs?

I'm not saying that.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm surprised you didn't follow that up with a "do you know why?" /images/graemlins/wink.gif... well, if you would care to explain, I'd be interested in hearing it, but I can't see why the actual data shows a different stat than what seems to be the correct impirical stat. So, in the example I gave, if you agree that I have 8 outs, then my probability is 8/48... if you agree with this, then where does this "less Ace on the river" idea fit in? If there's less Ace on the river, then the probability is less than 8/48...
/images/graemlins/confused.gif

If you are tired of this and don't think that I will get it, no problem...

[lorinda]

Let's simplify and say you are playing heads up.

We'll also simplify further and say you are a terrible heads up player and only play top hands.
Even worse, you never fold once you start a pot.


We'll now change the rules (but not the math)

You are dealt your two cards, you look at them, and then the five board cards are dealt face down to be revealed at the correct time.

On the occasions you are playing, there is likely to be an ace in your hand and the river is dealt from a deck of 50 cards with only 3 aces in it.

Now the key part.
The times you actually SEE what was dealt on the river are the times you have the ace in your hand (or KQ etc), so although the river cards are dealt with the correct frequency, you don't see the river card every time, your observation of the river is skewed.

If you were willing to run pokertracker and play every hand to the river, you would see the exact proportions are correct (and the experiment would cost you a lot of money /images/graemlins/tongue.gif)

Because my example is so extreme, you will notice that the real figures are reasonably similar to each other, but a definate difference can be seen... this is the effect of even fish having some idea that 23o is sometimes a hand worthy of folding.

Lori

[BIGRED]

So, if I hear you correctly, you're saying only the hands that contain a premium card will likely see the river, thus less likely chance that an Ace (or K, Q) will hit the river.
Am I right so far? By the way, I already understood you were saying this even before your example. So, I'm not really sure what your example is supposed to illustrate.

But isn't it just as likely that less value cards such as 2, 3, 4, or whatever could have been in one of the hands that were mucked, so the expected ratio of any card remaining in the deck is sitll the same for all cards.

This is the basic logic in figuring out your outs. I still don't get it...

If you agree with me my outs are still 8 and my probability of hitting my open ender on the river is still 8/48, I'll settle for that. Beyond that, I guess I'm too thick to see your point.

[Justin A]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $10 BB (2 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero ($6163.50)
Button ($5390)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif. Button posts a blind of $10.
<font color="CC3333">Hero raises to $30</font>, Button (poster) calls $20.

Flop: ($60) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets $60</font>, Button calls $60.

Turn: ($180) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">Button bets $60</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to $300</font>, <font color="CC3333">Button raises to $5300</font>, Hero calls $5000.

River: ($10780) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>

Final Pot: $10780
<font color="green">Main Pot: $10780, between Hero and Button.</font> &gt; <font color="white">Pot won by Hero ($10780).</font>

Results in white below: <font color="white">
Hero has 8h Th (full house, tens full of eights).
Button has 3s 3d (full house, threes full of tens).
Outcome: Hero wins $10780. </font>

[PGarlic]

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop: Hero is BB with 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif.

[/ QUOTE ]

The button was drawing dead after this point.

I suggest we don't let any of this out of these forums, It will certainly keep out bank rolls happy.

[lorinda]

If you agree with me my outs are still 8 and my probability of hitting my open ender on the river is still 8/48, I'll settle for that. Beyond that, I guess I'm too thick to see your point.

You are correct.

You will however read posts in some situations where you work out your maximum outs and then subtract some for possible overlap, for instance when you have KQ on a J93 board. The kings, queens and tens come to 10 outs, but If you posted this in Small Stakes, I'm sure people would tell you to count your outs as less than ten (depending on how betting went of course) because of the possibility of being up against AA, or AQ and so on.

This is the hidden 'tax' on your outs that is represented in the chart and is only applicable in certain scenarios.

Lori

[Sponger15SB]

[ QUOTE ]
As stupid as this seems, i have recently found the one hand that for whatever reason i play all the time....as long as there is no outrageuos raise preflop.

I read and have studied hand distributions on which cards seem to appear most on the flop and most on the rest of the board.... it is mostly 6 7 8 and usually a 9 or 10 on river....more times than not. This doesnt mean that the flop is always 10 9 8 7 6 but those cards appear more than others.

So lately i have been playing 10 - 8 suited. I have folded it off-suited quite a few times because i dont chase but since playing 10-8 ive hit flush draw and open enders on flop....sometimes both...ive folded 10-8 to an all-in and flop delt me a boat.

No lie that i have won more times with 10-8 and hit more of my str8s and flushes, and thank god i have only lost with that flush, although a marginal one, to a higher one ONCE.

I want others to check this hand out for internet poker to tell me what you think.

[/ QUOTE ]

Tonight in a $10 SNG...


Total number of players : 4
Seat 2: ccminc ( $1415 )
Seat 4: Golf4Food ( $2035 )
Seat 6: SpongerSB ( $2450 )
Seat 10: wells5 ( $2100 )
Trny:6899063 Level:6
Blinds(150/300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to SpongerSB [ Ac Qh ]
SpongerSB is all-In.
ccminc is all-In.
** Dealing Flop ** [ As, 9h, 8h ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 5c ]
** Dealing River ** [ 8d ]
ccminc shows [ 8c, Td ] three of a kind, eights.
SpongerSB shows [ Ac, Qh ] two pairs, aces and eights.
SpongerSB wins 1035 chips from side pot #1 with two pairs, aces and eights.
ccminc wins 2980 chips from the main pot with three of a kind, eights.

a little bit later in the tourney


Total number of players : 3
Seat 2: ccminc ( $1525 )
Seat 6: SpongerSB ( $3670 )
Seat 10: wells5 ( $2805 )
Trny:6899063 Level:7
Blinds(200/400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to SpongerSB [ 9h Ad ]
SpongerSB is all-In.
ccminc is all-In.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 6s, 3c, 4h ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 7d ]
** Dealing River ** [ 9d ]
SpongerSB shows [ 9h, Ad ] a pair of nines.
ccminc shows [ Ts, 8d ] a straight, six to ten.
SpongerSB wins 2145 chips from side pot #1 with a pair of nines.
ccminc wins 3250 chips from the main pot with a straight, six to ten.

[_2000Flushes]

[ QUOTE ]
Or maybe the people who respond to the people who respond to trolls.
Or possiblty the people who respond to the people who respond to the people who respond to trolls (like me).

If someone responds to me then they can be a person who responds to the people who responds to the people who responds to the people who responds to trolls.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey, leave me out of this.

-2kF

[MarkL444]

T8s owns

[InchoateHand]

x