Probability that Cards Win the Series?

[Beer and Pizza]

The straight math answer (assuming the teams are even in likelihood to win each game) is:

.5 * .5 * .5 * .5 = 6.25%.

Do you think it is higher or lower than this, and why?

[GuyOnTilt]

The way I see it, they have a 50/50 chance of winning the series. They're either going to win, or they're going to lose, right? 50/50. This is how I approach most of life's probability issues and it seems to be working pretty well so far.

GoT

[daryn]

i'd say lower because:

A) i don't believe both teams have an equal chance to win each game, because i believe boston has the better team.

B) STL is dejected

2%

[MrGo]

I say 75% because:

1. I predicted before the series STL comes back from a 3-0 deficit to win in 7.
2. Babe Ruth woke me up last night and told me he'll linger over Boston for these next 4 games.

Bet your house on STL! The Babe said so...

[El Barto]

[ QUOTE ]
2. Babe Ruth woke me up last night and told me he'll linger over Boston for these next 4 games.



[/ QUOTE ]

So while the Babe is in Boston, the Red Sox will win half way across the country in St. Louis. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[Neil Stevens]

Let's see..
Assuming that strategy and emotion takes its toll on the Cards game by game:

.6 * .5 * .4 * .3 = 3.6%

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
The way I see it, they have a 50/50 chance of winning the series. They're either going to win, or they're going to lose, right? 50/50. This is how I approach most of life's probability issues and it seems to be working pretty well so far.

GoT

[/ QUOTE ]

This is also one of the reasons your avatar is a pink pony. Keep it up. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[MrGo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
2. Babe Ruth woke me up last night and told me he'll linger over Boston for these next 4 games.



[/ QUOTE ]

So while the Babe is in Boston, the Red Sox will win half way across the country in St. Louis. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I meant linger over the team /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's see..
Assuming that strategy and emotion takes its toll on the Cards game by game:

.6 * .5 * .4 * .3 = 3.6%

[/ QUOTE ]

I think .3 for the last game is way too low. No way the Red Sox will be able to stay calm if they lose the next three. They'll get superstitious and play poorly.
I would say .7 or at least .6

[Bulldog]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's see..
Assuming that strategy and emotion takes its toll on the Cards game by game:

.6 * .5 * .4 * .3 = 3.6%

[/ QUOTE ]

Say .6 * .5 * .2 * .7 = 4.2%

Cards favored slightly in Game 4 because sweeps don't usually happen.

Game 5 pick'em.

Red Sox huge favorites in Game 6--Schilling on the hill, back in Fenway, and only once ever has a baseball team down 3-0 won a Game 6.

Cardinals strong favorites in Game 7 because 100% of teams down 3-0 that force a game 7, win. /images/graemlins/grin.gif Also, the curse talk will have never been louder. All offset a bit by Pedro vs Suppan (advantage BoSox).

[Neil Stevens]

After the ALCS, I can't imagine that a single man on the Red Sox roster would be affected by that curse talk.