ABC News "exit poll" of early votes already cast

[Dynasty]

I found this ABC News article (http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=199229&page=1) interesting. During their daily tracking poll (with the Washington Post), 9% of the poll's likely voters say they've already cast their vote for President either by absentee ballot or early voting.

The results of "exit poll" of votes already cast is Bush 51, Kerry 47.

[Nate tha' Great]

D,

Isn't Texas one of the big early-ballot states?

[SinCityGuy]

[ QUOTE ]
D,

Isn't Texas one of the big early-ballot states?

[/ QUOTE ]

AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, FL, GA, HI, IN, IA, KS, ME, NE, NV, NM, NC, ND, OR, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT and WV.

In 2000 Bush received 24,464,219 votes in these states, while Gore received 21,029,384. In other words, Bush won 54.0% of the two-party in these states, while Gore only won 46.0%. Thus, if the ABC poll is accurate, Bush is under-performing his 2000 levels by 2-3 points, while Kerry is over-performing Gore’s level by 1-2 points.

[tanda]

My understanding is that the early voting poll numbers includes absentee voters as well. Thus, all 50 states are included.

Also, the Dems pushed early voting and claimed they would win it, so I am not sure what to make of these results.

Note that Democracy Corps, Gallup and Zogby have also written that Bush is leading early voting as well.

It seems that ABC/WaPo and Zogby are letting some info slip. Their comments with the poll releases indicate: undecideds are breaking at least even and Kerry is running out of undecideds. Also, ABC felt the need to downplay Kerry's recent good performace in their tracking poll by mentioning two abnormally good days were included. As their internal memos admit that they are in the tank for Kerry, their willingness to downplay his good results is very interesting.

[LinusKS]

[ QUOTE ]
D,

Isn't Texas one of the big early-ballot states?

[/ QUOTE ]

AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, FL, GA, HI, IN, IA, KS, ME, NE, NV, NM, NC, ND, OR, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT and WV.

In 2000 Bush received 24,464,219 votes in these states, while Gore received 21,029,384. In other words, Bush won 54.0% of the two-party in these states, while Gore only won 46.0%. Thus, if the ABC poll is accurate, Bush is under-performing his 2000 levels by 2-3 points, while Kerry is over-performing Gore’s level by 1-2 points.

[/ QUOTE ]

If that's true, that's very good news for Kerry.

That 3-5 point swing in his direction is approximately in line with the historical average, but more importantly, it's enough to win him both the popular vote and the electoral vote (assuming, of course, those numbers hold up.)

[JimBob2232]

[ QUOTE ]
AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, FL, GA, HI, IN, IA, KS, ME, NE, NV, NM, NC, ND, OR, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT and WV.

[/ QUOTE ]

Out of this laundry list of states, CO, FL, HI, IA, NM are the only ones which are even remotely up in the air at this point. (MAYBE AR) Really need to look at individual states rather than the popular vote. So bush lost ground in texas and california...whoopdie do.

[LinusKS]

If Bush is losing ground in Texas, that's not a good sign for Bush.

[JimBob2232]

That was just a "for instance" I dont know if he is or not. My point is that it doesnt matter what the overall nubmbers are showing, but rather what the important in-play states are showing.

And BTW, I dont like this kind of info being released a week before the election, but i guess there is nothing I can do about it

[andyfox]

Isn't it the case that absentee balloting has traditionally favored the Republican candidate? And wouldn't it also be true that with the increase in the availability of early voting, that might not be the case any more?