Rasmussen Poll About Who Late Deciders Prefer

[Dynasty]

A significant factor in who wins next Tuesday's Presidential election is how the late deciders break. With polls so close (Rasmussen has it at Bush 47.8, Kerry 47.8), they obviously will have an impact. This Rasmussen poll (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/VoterDecisionTime.htm) attempted to identify who those who have decided in the past month and past week are going to vote for.

If not for the small sample size of late deciders in the past week, I think this poll would have a lot of weight. But, it still provides some evidence the incumbent rule may not apply so well in Presidential elections (2000, 1992, 1976, and 1968), especially in war time.

[SinCityGuy]

Interesting read.

I can recommend one solid piece of information for determining the popular vote outcome (which could be totally meaningless). Realclearpolitics.com does a compilation of the national polls that tends to smooth out the erroneous polls. Right now, they have Bush at 48.8%. Watch this number. Bush's final number in this poll is likely to be what he actually gets on election night. If it creeps up slightly before 11/2, he's in pretty good shape. If it drops a bit, he's in trouble.

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
Right now, they have Bush at 48.8%. Watch this number. Bush's final number in this poll is likely to be what he actually gets on election night. If it creeps up slightly before 11/2, he's in pretty good shape. If it drops a bit, he's in trouble.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just for reference, Al Gore got 48.4% in 2000, George Bush got 47.9%, Ralph Nader got 2.7%, and other candidates got 1.0%

In previous years, non-Democratic and non-Republican candidates got these %'s:

1996: Perot 8.4%, Others 1.8%
1992: Perot 18.9%, Others 0.6%
1988: Others 1.0%
1984: Others 0.7%
1980: Anderson 6.6%, Clark (Libertarian) 1.0%, Others 0.6%
1976: Others 1.9%
1972: Others 2.4%

The point of showing these numbers is that Nader is going to get some small %. I think it will be between 0.5% and 0.9%. Then, other third party candidates will get between 1% and 2%. In total, I think we can expect 2-2.5% of the vote to go to non-Democrat and non-Republican candidates.

That makes 49% a "majority" between Bush and Kerry.

[GWB]

Here's the latest electoral map.
We need to get the vote out in Warwickshire people!

http://www.geocities.com/dadge.geo/englandBK1027.gif

[The once and future king]

LIAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

If there had been a real poll that whole map would be dark blue.

[El Barto]

Rasmussen is weird right now.

Nationally they have it tied.

In Ohio they have Bush ahead 50% to 46%. Rasmussen Ohio Page (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Ohio_Fall%202004.htm)

[Bill Smith]

I prefer a strong Bush over a weak one.

[ChristinaB]

[ QUOTE ]
We need to get the vote out in Warwickshire people!

[/ QUOTE ]

Warwickshire?

Isn't that where Bilbo and Frodo Baggins live?

[Matty]

http://people-press.org/reports/graphs/231.gif

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=B4XQOC5JFHSRMCRBAEZSF FA?type=politicsNews&storyID=6631592

[Nepa]

good read, I'm wondering now if Bush just really sucks or if he is having super bad luck.

I like the quote(i'll paraphase) by Kerry saying Bush claims he is going to protect us from Bio-terrorism but he cannot even get enough flu shots.

The stock market is tanking. This can't help, though the stocks that I own have been doing very well. This is a post for another forum.

Gas prices spiking in Oct.? This just isn't suppose to happen.

Iraq, 75-120 billion, I think we should rename Iraq to "The money and death Pit"

380 tons of missing terrorist tools.

Which way do you think the undecideds are going to turn?

[nicky g]

"Which way do you think the undecideds are going to turn? "

They've still got a week to produce Bin Laden /images/graemlins/shocked.gif. ("I said i wasn't concerned... because he's been locked up in my basement since January 2002! Suck on that John Kerry! Yeah!").

[Nepa]

[ QUOTE ]
"Which way do you think the undecideds are going to turn? "

They've still got a week to produce Bin Laden /images/graemlins/shocked.gif. ("I said i wasn't concerned... because he's been locked up in my basement since January 2002! Suck on that John Kerry! Yeah!").

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm starting to think that they need Bin Laden to win this election. Just like Carter needed to free the hostages to win his.