Making assumptions about unknown players

[knifeyspoony]

I don't really have a question as such but I'm hoping to get a discussion going about how much credit to give unknown players in multi table tournaments.

I'll write a summary of the hand that got me wondering about this:

Blinds are 400/800, relevent stacks are all around 20k.

I'm SB with JJ.

EP min raises to 1600. I've played against this player before, he's loose preflop and always raises according to the strength of his hand. I put him on something like KJ, QT, or a small pair. He always massively overbets with big pairs. I like playing against him.

Unknown MP player flat calls and it's folded to me.

I make it 6000 to go with my Jacks expecting to either take it down preflop or with a push on a favourable flop (EP has been known to make many stupid preflop calls).

Anyway, EP folds his marginal hand but the unknown player thinks for about 10 seconds and minimum raises me to 8400.

Obviously if he's a decent player the only hands that make any sense at all here are AA or KK. I thought about it for a while and decided to put him all in, I just couldn't give him any credit for a big pair and decided that it was far too likely that he was clueless considering the many ridiculous plays I see regularly in online tourneys.

So, do you generally assume players to be idiots or competent players until proven otherwise?

By the way, the above example was from a $20 buy in online tournament. I might be inclined to give players more respect with higher buy ins.

Also, in that particular hand it didn't seem like he had anything, he played it as if he didn't really know what he was doing. I think I'd generally respect an UTG limp-reraise from an unknown player, or if he'd been in the big blind and reraised. So I guess a lot of it is situational.

And I know I didn't have to risk my whole tournament with JJ. That's not the point here, ok?! /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Steve Chase]

I am sure he had an AA or KK.
You are tossed.

To answer your question: assume he is a solid player unless you know him well.

[adanthar]

The worst hand he can possibly have there is QQ and I'm probably playing the jacks for flop set value.

Had he reraised all in, it *might* be a somewhat harder choice - might.

[knifeyspoony]

He had A2 suited. I was still tossed, not that it matters.

The reason I brought this up is because in my experience you're more likely to see something like this than a real hand. In a $20 online tourney, anyway.

Like I said, I'd usually fold this to a more standard play like a limp reraise or a normal positional rereraise. I've just been finding that a play that doesn't make much sense is more likely to come from a player that doesn't make much sense than from Tricksy le Trick.

I've been thinking that, in low buy in online tourneys, seemingly 'reckless' play is sometimes correct. Does anyone agree?

[krille]

[ QUOTE ]
He had A2 suited.

[/ QUOTE ]

I love it /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[knifeyspoony]

I don't think I can play for set value when I'm putting so much of my stack in, can I? I got the minimum raise value wrong in my first post, it's obviously to 10400, not 8400.