The Party Bad Beat Jackpot

[Boopotts]

I'm trying to figure out at what point playing in the jackpot tables becomes +EV, and I thought I'd blow my figures by everyone here to see if we agree.

According to my very rough estimates, a guy should get quad 8's or better cracked about once every 600,000 hands. If this is right-- and again, I'm flying blind-- then you should either have this happen to you, or have it happen at your table, about once every 1000 hrs (ten guys at the table times sixty hands per hour). In those 600,000 hands, if you win about 6.5% of them, you're going to win 3900 hands. Assuming 80% or so get fully raked (again, depending on the limit) you're going to pay 1560$ in jackpot fees before your table hits it.

Now, you're not playing as many hands as your opponents, but you probably are playing as many hands that might end up qualifying for the bad beat (pocket pairs 8's or higher, suited connectors at 87s and up, etc), so let's assume your chances of hitting the bad beat are as good as anyone elses at the table.

When it hits, you have a 10% chance of getting 50% of the jackpot, a 10% chance at 25%, and an 80% chance at 3.125%.
So, if it's at 25,000$, your equity is (1250+625+625) $2500. Assuming you'll put in $1560, a $25,000 jackpot is worth about an extra buck an hour.

Do these numbers look right? I'm not a math whiz, so I really don't know. But I do think it would be interesting to figure out when the jackpot tables are worth taking a stab at.

[MaGi]

You're assuming that playable hands play to the river always.

[Evan]

this question is very close to impossible for all but the highest level geniuses. There are so many variables in the problem that really acn't be quaantified.

The way you're approaching it assumes that no poker play is involved. Not every 88 stays arround for runner runner quads when the flop comes AKT.

[JKratzer]

I personally think the badbeat tables might be worth playing even if you knew you wouldn't win any money from the jackpot. I assume there is a higher percentage of fish at a badbeat table since the rake is higher and better players would avoid these tables (also assuming the better players don't use my reasoning...). As long as one extra bet gets put in every couple hands - reasonable to assume I think with one to two extra fish - that should more than make up for the increased rake.

Now don't you all go joining the tables and ruining my theory.

[Evan]

I think an interesting way to look at the problem would be fromt he aspect of a market economy. Should we expect that Party, in the long run, will act as a free market?

What I mean is that in the long run, it may be reasonable to expect the EV of the BBJ tables to exactly equla the EV of the regualr tables (obviously for a player of a given skill/limit etc.). Will the tables eventually even out as many winning players follow your "theory" and push out some of the fish and then maybe it'll shift back, whatever. In the long run will it balance itself out such that the EV added by the jackpot (it doesn't matter whether it's + or - EV) balances out the change in EV from the different play on those tables?

I'd like the say that I have no idea what the answer to this question is, but I think it's a really interesting idea. If I weren't so tired right now I might try to think about it a bit. If anyone wants to try to tackle this I would love to read the response.

P.S. If anyone is in the mood for something slightly less mentally demanding (but more important, to me at least) then check out this thread (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=exchange&Number=1176635&pa ge=0&view=collapsed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=all)

[Paul2432]

[ QUOTE ]
According to my very rough estimates, a guy should get quad 8's or better cracked about once every 600,000 hands. If this is right-- and again, I'm flying blind-- then you should either have this happen to you, or have it happen at your table, about once every 1000 hrs (ten guys at the table times sixty hands per hour). In those 600,000 hands, if you win about 6.5% of them, you're going to win 3900 hands. Assuming 80% or so get fully raked (again, depending on the limit) you're going to pay 1560$ in jackpot fees before your table hits it.

Now, you're not playing as many hands as your opponents, but you probably are playing as many hands that might end up qualifying for the bad beat (pocket pairs 8's or higher, suited connectors at 87s and up, etc), so let's assume your chances of hitting the bad beat are as good as anyone elses at the table.

When it hits, you have a 10% chance of getting 50% of the jackpot, a 10% chance at 25%, and an 80% chance at 3.125%.
So, if it's at 25,000$, your equity is (1250+625+625) $2500. Assuming you'll put in $1560, a $25,000 jackpot is worth about an extra buck an hour.


[/ QUOTE ]

There are several problems with what you have written. First I think your estimate of how often the jackpot hits is way too low. I don't think it is really feasible to calculate directly how often the jackpot will hit. Instead, an estimate can be made based on the sizes of the jackpot when it has hit in the past. My informal observations put the jackpot frequency at about once every 250,000 hands/table (this could be way off, but is based on an average jackpot of $150,000. I don't have any data, that is just my casual observation).

Caculating your EV then is straightforward.

EV = ((0.7 x JP)/(250,000) - 0.50))/10

Note that only 70% of the jackpot is awarded which you omitted from your calculations. I made the simplifying assumptions that the table has 10 players and that everyone at the table has equal equity in the jackpot. (looser players probably are more likely to hit, but they also contribute more to the jackpot, I think these two effects cancel out somewhat.)

If we set EV=0 and solve the above equation for the JP we get that playing the JP tables becomes profitable if the JP is above $178,000.

Paul

[bdk3clash]

[ QUOTE ]
Not every 88 stays arround for runner runner quads when the flop comes AKT.

[/ QUOTE ]
Speak for yourself.

The jackpot tables are juicy--I'd bet they're pretty much worth it before you factor in your jackpot equity, but that's just a hunch.

Geez, what's it at now, like $400K?