Why John Kerry will win

[LinusKS]

Most polls are calling it even, or giving the nod to Bush.

But here's some things to consider.

According to Gallup (http://www.gallup.com/) 12% of the electorate this year will be new voters. That's significant because polls mostly exclude first-time voters from their results (preferring likely voters instead), but according to Gallup, those voters favor Kerry over Bush by a margin of 50%-35%.

If they can deliver even one or two points to Kerry, that could be enough to deliver states like Ohio and Florida, where the election is too close to call.

Perhaps more important is what some people call the "incumbent effect." "Undecided voters," it turns out, break overwhelmingly for the challenger. According to this (http://www.mydd.com/story/2004/10/22/1741/0082#readmore) site the historical average is better to 4-1.

RCP currently has the undecided vote at about 4 points. If the undecided vote broke 3-1 for Kerry this time, that might be enough to give him the election right there.

[lastchance]

I think Bush is a stronger campaigner, however, and I think he might make that ground up.

Still, the incumbent effect is well documented, and in a dead heat, Kerry has a better shot. Bush can still pick up a few points here and there though.

[Matty]

Here's a questionable election model thingy:

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[Nepa]

[ QUOTE ]
All models assume Kerry will win 60% of the undecided/other vote.



[/ QUOTE ]

Zogby has said this number could be as high as 80-90 percent for Kerry. I guess all of the undecided voters in this country happen to be African Americans.

[TomCollins]

It says Kerry has a 77% chance of winning EVEN IF he loses Florida and Ohio.

If Bush can lock up one of those states, hes got a DAMN good chance, hes gotta be the favorite at that point.

[lastchance]

Coming down the stretch, the election probably swings by either Florida and Ohio. If Kerry sweeps, he should win, if Bush sweeps, he should win. I think if Kerry takes Florida, and Bush takes Ohio, Kerry's a favorite. Not a big one, but a favorite nonetheless, and same goes the other way.

[Jimbo]

[ QUOTE ]
But here's some things to consider.

According to Gallup (http://www.gallup.com/) 12% of the electorate this year will be new voters. That's significant because polls mostly exclude first-time voters from their results (preferring likely voters instead), but according to Gallup, those voters favor Kerry over Bush by a margin of 50%-35%.

If they can deliver even one or two points to Kerry, that could be enough to deliver states like Ohio and Florida, where the election is too close to call.



[/ QUOTE ]

I've never seen a group of people more intent on misleading themselves than on this forum.

Further down in the Gallup article you linked are the following two pertinent points.

1) There are essentially no differences in first-time voting between registered Republicans and registered Democrats, although registered independents are somewhat more likely to be first-time voters.

2) For results based on the sample of 109 registered voters who say this will be the first presidential election in which they will be voting, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±10 percentage points.

This menas that the 50/35 Kerry/Bush figure you (and Gallup) used it could just as easily be 45/40 in favor of Bush over Kerry. Since an equal number of first time voters are both Democrats and Republicans I find it odd that Kerry would have be 50/35 favorite within this group. So much for polls.

Jimbo

[LinusKS]

Unfortunately for you, Jimbo, that's only one poll that shows first-time voters support Kerry.

If you don't like that one, here's (http://politicalwire.com/archives/2004/10/17/early_and_first_time_voters_favor_kerry.html) another (First-time voters favor Kerry by 21, 57-36), or go google up some more.

In any case, unless he can break the 50% mark (or 49%, if he thinks he can count on Nader's help), Bush still loses this election, based on the undecideds alone.

[Jimbo]

Alas self delusion can only continue for so long. Get back to me on November 3rd and then tell me how much you like your straw polls.

Jimbo

[Jimbo]

[ QUOTE ]
Alas self delusion can only continue for so long. Get back to me on November 3rd and then tell me how much you like your straw polls.

Jimbo

[/ QUOTE ]

Another thread worthy of a bump. Polls? Accuracy? Kerry wins? Ha Ha!!!

Jimbo

[Danenania]

Classy.

[daryn]

you spelled classic wrong