Stud-8 5th Street Decision

On 5th street here is the situation.


3-way.

Low shows 2s,5s,6d.

2nd player shows J,J,3

I hold (A,A)A,J,T


Action:

The jacks bet, I called, low raised and jacks re-raised.


Can I fold?

I don't play high-low split Stud.


However, aren't you a huge favorite to take the high here? It seems certain that the 2s5s6d has the low locked up unless they have two big spades in the hole (or one big card and are still drawing).


So, you're playing against the JJ3 for half the pot. Isn't that enough? You're getting a $1.50 return for every $1.00 you put into the pot. The Jacks don't know you're rolled up. He thinks his (presumed) trip Jacks are a lock for high. If the low is still drawing, you may scoop the pot.

"You're getting a $1.50 return for every $1.00 you put into the pot."


Right. So I'm risking $1 to win $.50.


Granted, it sure looks like I'm ahead of the JJ3, but the other guy could already have a made straight. Even if JJ3 isn't full already, he figures to have a better draw than I do. (The jacks figure to be dead outs for me, since I'm holding one of them and it sure looks like he has the other 3. So I'm drawing to 3 tens and I might not even have an ace as an out, since it could very likely be in the (652) low's hand.


Also, I'm looking at two cold and the low is sure to re-raise. In other words, I'm gonna get jammed in here pretty good between 5th, 6th and 7th streets if the jacks are already full and I don't have reasonable outs to out-draw for high.


I'm also new to stud-8. You should learn it Dynasty. You'll be glad you did. It's really a great game!

It looks like your opponent has got trips, but you´ve got the case jack, meaning for once it´s impossible that he´s got quads. Also what makes you think he´s already got the full house with jacks, he´d have to catch perfect on all rounds (and it´s doubtful that he started with 33J), and even on the odd chance that he has got it, your full will be higher if you get there. In addition to that, your trips are HIDDEN!!!

Admittedly, the low "could" of course already have a better hand or draw to one, but I think that, in general, one should avoid to watch out for "snipers behind every tree" or "monsters under the bed" while playing poker.

Aquaman-


Not sure if you read Dynasty's post and my response. I am very new to this game, so please go easy on me if this is a dumb question. I know it looks like I can't possibly think about folding, but...


Basically, I'm hoping to make $.50 for every dollar I risk.


You being the optimist say, "Hey! He can't have quad Jacks!". Whereas, I'm thinking this means less outs for me to fill up should the other guy already have a straight. If so, JJ3 actually has more outs than I do to win the high! There's also the small chance that JJ8 is already full.


If either of the above is the case, it's obvious I'm gonna get jammed up pretty good the rest of the way. All to win .50 on the dollar. I just thought that even though it looks pretty weak/tight, that folding might be an option. Thanks for your response Dynasty.

I will not pretend to be an expert (or even good), but this is my favorite game. With that said...


I would have immediately raised the JJ3 on 5th. The low would reraise, and the JJ3's next move might give you more info on his hand. Either way, since your trip A's are a clear favorite, but not quite a monster (yet!), I would play this very aggressively.


Thoughts?

Come to think of it, I may have mis-stated the action on 5th. It's very possible JJ3 bet, I raised, 652 re-raised, and JJ3 re-raised again. Would this change your thoughts any?


"Either way, since your trip A's are a clear favorite, but not quite a monster (yet!), I would play this very aggressively."


As I keep pointing out.. If 652 has a straight, or if JJ3 is already full, I am NOT a clear favorite! My outs are significantly blocked because most of them appear to be in my opponent's hands. If I'm wrong about this, someone please explain it to me. Thanks.

One trey is gone, so that reduces by a little the likelihood that the low hand has a straight.


If you hadn't caught a jack, it's something like 3:2 that JJ3 has two pair (pocket pair and running jacks) instead of trip jacks. Your having caught the jack on fourth street makes two pair *much* more likely. (Nevertheless, he's playing two pair versus presumed split aces and a made low correctly, trapping the aces for extra bets and possibly forcing a fold.)


(33)JJ3 is an unlikely starter for anyone but an idiot -- but idiots *do* play this game.


It seems to me that you are very likely well into the lead for the high half of the pot. The low hand *may* have a straight (or hit one between now and the river), but the two of you have a serious live one on your hooks right at the moment.


Given that the other two hands have been doing all of the raising, I would simply call the two bets here, and trust the low hand to put in the next bet.


If you don't see the river with your hand, you shouldn't be playing poker.

"If you don't see the river with your hand, you shouldn't be playing poker."


Well, I DID see the river. I also saw jacks full of threes (made on 7th) and the 652 who had the straight and made low on 5th. I failed to fill up.


I don't like to be results orientated, but I was drawing awfully thin to even beat the straight. Even though I had 3 jacks beat, he had more outs than I did to beat the straight. I'm still not convinced that folding wasn't the better play here. Thanks for your comments.

The last time I had (AA)A I lost to (46)646. I raised on 3rd(everyone folded to me, he was bringin, this was a Stud8 satellite, early on), bet out on 4th, raised/called on 5th, then called him down on 6th & 7th.


IMO (AA)A should be played fast n furious, unless headup against low cards. Of course, it's doubtful the guy's gonna fold (xJ)JJ at any point, but it's gonna get capped on 5th & 6th regardless, so you might as well represent the strt on 5th, and make HIM think about his drawing odds; assuming you didn't already put in every possible raise on 3rd & 4th.


Then you still keep popping it as it's unlikely he's got J's full & you can't play fearing the low's gotta strt awready(as per Alan's excellent analysis).


Then you can bet 7th(assuming he checks), and the low might not raise(wanting that extra small bet) and neither may the filled J's, fearing you're full. When it's two more bets back to you on 7th is the time to start thinking about making a tough fold.


Bad beat. Mathematics, shmathematics, it undoubtedly is correct to fold the better half-pot hand on 5th(I think Sklansky wrote something about this in S/S), but you have to consider the playability of your hand. Put the pressure on your opponent. I can't imagine Vince Burgio, Mike Sexton, or Randy Holland ever not seeing the river w/AAA, s'long as the caser n kickers weren't totally dead. I'm there raising till the end.


Being rolled up sux in stud8. /images/smile.gif

I'm undefeated with (A,A)A.


However, I've actually lost money with (K,K)K overall.

I have not run simulations to get the exact percentages, but your rolled Aces are a money winner. Give me this situation 10 times in a row and I will have more chips by the tenth time. It is positive EV. You know, the correct math for making decisions. You lost this time, but next N times you will win. So don't fold next time either.

One thing missing is the explanation was what cards were dead. This helps determine who is neck and neck in the horse race.

-KeithO

i will really stick my neck out here. id fold if there wasnt much in the pot already, and play if there was. things to consider is the other cards out and the likelyhood of the low having started very good, which gives him more of a chance to have or be drawing to a win for high. one reason for playing is that often you may find the low hand really had trips or a flush and or low draw. and many time the jacks doesnt have trips. you can find you are indeed playing for all the pot.

Thanks Ray-


I've just started playing this game and it's gonna take quite a few more hours until I develop a feel for some of the tougher decisions. One thing I already know, is that having 2nd and 3rd best hands or draws and being sandwiched between better ones, can be a very painful experience.


btw- Your book has been a tremendous help to me in learning stud-8! Time will tell if I can make good use of it. Thanks again.