Holdem swings

[cbruno]

This weekend I decided I had enough of 2-4 holdem--ive been consistently winning at this level, and graduated to 3-6 and 4-8. I subsequently lost $400--the equivalent of 2 weeks worth of profit at 2-4.

I asked myself what went wrong. I just kept getting outdrawn. Id flopped a set 3 times, played it agressively, only to be outdrawn by flushes on the river. Several times id make trips on the flop only to be beaten by a straight--with A 10s I flopped AA3, only to get outdrawn by a wheel on river--and I RAISED preflop!!! Id have AJ, flop top pair, only to be beaten by trip 5s on the river--heads up-- by someone with 5-6 offsuit. And I raised preflop!!!!

Is it common to experience swings in the 100s of dollars on 3-6 and 4-8, or am I just not as good as I think I am? Maybe I should stick to 2-4.

[TomCollins]

$400 at 4/8 is 50 big bets. You can easily lose this in one session.

If you are playing limit holdem, you will lose sessions. You will go on 50BB swings. You will go on much bigger ones.

Players are bad at low limits. They will suck out. They will pay you off as well.

If losing $400 is a huge deal for you, don't play 4/8. Its going to happen. But then again, you will have a bad run where you lose $400 at 2/4. If you are playing live, then you are going to have to pay a consierable amount for rake.

Also, you are probably not as good as you think you are. Not saying you won't win, but you aren't at an expert. I'd be interested in seeing your AJ hand that you raised. If you raised after he was in already or in a blind, hes going to call. Plus, AJo is not that strong of a hand.

Holdem will kick your A$$ left and right, even if you are good. The sooner you realize its about the long run, the better.

In the mean time, read Joe Tall's "Enjoy a Bad Beat" (http://www.riveredagain.com/articles.htm#Tall_Enjoy_a_Bad_Beat).

[ricdaman]

A couple of things...

(1) What is your bankroll like? I'm almost positive, just from your post that it is not 300BB. Before moving up, make sure that you have at least (bare minimum) 150BB for the level you are moving to, and I do mean bare minimum. What this means is, at 4/8, you should have 300 big bets, or 300 x 8, or $2,400. This is crucial to being able to absorb the swings.

(2) Remember, the games at the next limit up are tougher than the game you are currently at. Specifically, I find 2/4 very similar to 3/6, and 4/8 very similar to 5/10. In 4/8 and 5/10 you will find people chasing EVERYTHING. In 2/4 and 3/6 they actually fold to your bets. Very different play. You will also find a ton of bluffing in 4/8 and 5/10. People will bet with top pair, 2 pair, 2 overcards, str8 draws, flush draws, you name it. You have to be very good to determine just what it is they are betting with. This is a skill that you do need as much in a 2/4 game. It's usually much clearer there.

(3) Because the next level is usually tougher, I like to move up partially at a time. What I mean by this is, if I'm going to play 3 tables, I'll start with 2, 2/4 tables, and 1 3/6 table. Then I'll move to 1, 2/4 table and 2, 3/6 tables until I'm ready to go all 3/6. Here's why... when you move up in limits, you will almost ALWAYS find yourself losing money at first. This is not necessarily because the game is tougher, but rather "different." Until you get used to the different play at the next level, you are going to lose money. It might take you a week to get used to it, it might take you a month. Either way, you still need to make money at the lower limit that you are comfortable with while you are learning the new limit you are trying to break in to.

I'm sure there'll be plenty of people who dissagree with me on this, but this is what I have done, and it is what has helped me out.

P.S. Is it normal to lose $400 at a 4/8 game? Well, $400 is 50 big bets. The rule of thumb is this... if you lose more than 30 big bets at a table, you are most likely the sucker. Sometimes it'll just be bad luck, but more often than not, you are the sucker.

[TomCollins]

[ QUOTE ]
P.S. Is it normal to lose $400 at a 4/8 game? Well, $400 is 50 big bets. The rule of thumb is this... if you lose more than 30 big bets at a table, you are most likely the sucker. Sometimes it'll just be bad luck, but more often than not, you are the sucker.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is true for one session. I don't think you can guarantee this over a few sessions. I would expect the best player in the world to lose 50BB over some time period in a 4/8 game. But you probably do have plenty of things to find wrong with your game. Post a few hands, we can critique.

[ACW]

I feel a special empathy with this post.

Last night I decided to make a more serious effort to move up from 1/2 (where I win $10/hr) to 2/4 than the odd dabble I've had up to now. I lost $160 in a couple of hours. Felt just the same as you describe - like I couldn't hit a flop, constant suck outs, strings of bad hands.

I suspect this was a factor, but I think the point one poster made about the games at different levels being different is very important to grasp.

[cbruno]

OK what went wrong here.

I had JA. Flop was Q J 5 --there was a bet, I just called.
Turn card was J. I check raised.
River card was a 10. I bet.
Guy raised me all in--1 more chip.
I called of course.
He turns of K A. My trips are beaten by a straight.

Another--even worse--hand. I have pocket queens.
I raise preflop. Several callers.
flop comes Qc, 5c 4h. I bet. a couple callers.
turn card is 9c. I see the potential flush, but bet anyway.
I am raised. Realizing Im probably beat--I just call. Hope for the board to pair.
Last card is nothing special. I check, and call the last bet. A-hole turns over 8c 3c. My set loses to his flush.

Another example. I have AJ. I raise preflop. blinds call.
flop is 5 9 J. I bet. small blind folds. BB calls.
Turn is 5. I bet. I am raised. Knowing he has the 5, I just call. turn card is of no help. I check, he bets, and I call.
A-hole turns over 56offsuit.

Last weekend was just hand after hand like these above. Should I have folded when I knew, with relative high probability, I was beaten?

[TaggedYa]

Repeat after me:

People who call a preflop raise with 56 offsuit are my friends.
People who call a flop checkraise with bottom pair are my friends.

Repeat untill you feel better then go back and take their money

TaggedYa

edited for minor error people would give me [censored] about