Final Table situation - what's my play?

[UMTerp]

Hey all,

I found myself at the final table of a local monthly tourney I play in, and I was wondering what the play is here. I guess it's basically a math question, similar to the one David posted in the WPT forum, but maybe someone can crunch the numbers and I'll be able to see if my intuition is right.

7 players left of 103, 10300 chips in play. I got to the final table of ten with about 900 chips, and went a little card dead. I lost a coin flip to a smaller stack earlier which put my real short, then tripled up two hands prior to this one with AA in the small blind. I'm in the 5 seat. I have T735 at the start of this hand.

The payout structure was VERY top-heavy:

1st - $3579
2nd - $1790
3rd - $1074
4th - $716
5th - $447
6th - $358
7th - $313

About 75% of the chips at the table are concentrated in the 2, 3, and 4 seats. The 2 seat has been by far the most aggresive, almost to a fault, and has been raising, often for the minimum, about 35-40% of his hands at the final table. The 7 seat posts the T75 small blind and the 1 seat posts the T150 big blind. Assume both of those stacks are at T800 or so - they both had me slightly covered.

Action:

7 SEAT posts T75 small blind.
1 SEAT posts T150 big blind.
2 SEAT raises to T300
3 SEAT FOLDS
4 SEAT FOLDS

My action with K /images/graemlins/spade.gif T /images/graemlins/spade.gif??

Also, I know the 6 SEAT well enough that he'd only call with AA-JJ and AK. Never played with the others before.

[UMTerp]

Anybody?

Obviously I'm all-in or fold here. If I double up, I'm back to average, and have a real shot at the "real" money, especially given my advantageous seat (position on tbe big stacks). Is this enough of an edge to push? I certainly don't want the blinds to come through again before I make a move. I guess the other option is to try to wait til any hand I can push first with, and hope for some folds.

Turns out he had A /images/graemlins/spade.gif 5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif, actually thought for a good bit before calling the additional T435, and I missed my 41% shot to get competitive again.

Too close to make a big difference, or is either pushing or folding clearly correct here?

[CaptObvious]

Well, in that situation you obviously have to think about him raising UTG. With that raise it probably means one of two things. He's using his chip stack to push around lower chip stacks that have to act after him; or he has a better then marginal hand.

If you pushed all-in you maybe looking at 50/50 at best. At which he'll most likely call for only a couple hundred more $$. Since blinds will be coming around quick, and you only get AX approx. 1 out of 6 hands, that maybe one of the better hands you see. You obviously don't want to wait to long when your stacks dwindling. In that situation, I might've just gone all in.