Raise those overcards on the flop after raising preflop?

[Aaron W.]

Paradise Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, CO folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, BB calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB calls, MP3 calls, Hero...

Raising may give me a free card, but I don't think it's too likely at this particular table. Given where the bettor is located, I think raising is a little bit pointless in this case. I also worry that raising here is falling into the "Auto-bet after preflop raise" mentality, which basically reduces to blind agression.

[Ajax410]

I always raise in this situation. I don't know what the reads are on these players, but unless they're super aggressive, they will most likely check to you on the turn. Granted, I haven't been playing the micros for about a week, but unless they've changed a ton, raising is the choice I make.

Also, the auto-bet after a pre-flop raise is a double-edged sword. I find that, by nature of the fact that I'm auto-betting, I get checked to a huge amount in late position. Granted, sometimes I do get check-raised, but people also tend to devalue my bets - which is especially nice when I do hit a hand.

Ajax

[prayformojo]

[ QUOTE ]
I also worry that raising here is falling into the "Auto-bet after preflop raise" mentality, which basically reduces to blind agression.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a bad thing now? Did I miss a memo?

[Ajax410]

Hehe. Why does the "Did I miss a memo?" line always make me laugh? I'm such a simple man /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Evan]

You're not gonna get it heads up, you probably won't get a free card, a raise is not for value ans you're lcosing the action. Just call and hope you either spike a pair or pick up a flush draw on the turn.

[Ajax410]

I respectfully disagree with just calling here. I think it is totally a viable option. I just think that raising is better. I have found that people WILL check to a raiser. If you get 3-bet you know where you stand. I think, for the price of 2 SB's you're either going to 1) Get some key information or 2) Get checked to on the turn - resulting in what is likely going to be a free card.

I could be wrong...it's been known to happen.

Ajax

[CWsports]

You most likely have 3 outs to the Q, 3 outs to the A, 1.5 outs to the backdoor flush, and 0.5 outs to the backdoor straight for a total of 8 outs. You need about 5:1 and you're getting much more than that. Therefore, I raise the flop as you have position on the flop bettor and by raising you will most likely buy a free card and can get more info on the flop bettor's hand.

[AVF2k1]

I totaly agree with you! Raise!!!

[Jimbobobb]

He said that raising would most likely *not* get him a free card against these particular opponents. If you're pretty sure your opponents are aggressive, and that raising won't get you a free card, then don't raise. Against really aggro opponents it'll get you 3-bet the majority of the time. If you think you have a shot at a free card, raise.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I also worry that raising here is falling into the "Auto-bet after preflop raise" mentality, which basically reduces to blind agression.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a bad thing now? Did I miss a memo?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think blind anything in poker is not a good idea. I would rather have a reason to bet based more information (such as the flop and the action on the flop), than based on older information (I raised preflop). Most of the time I do bet/raise after a preflop raise, but this one didn't look so obvious why it should be done.

[Klak]

i just call. its close between rasinging and calling and i dont think it makes much difference what you do.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
You most likely have 3 outs to the Q, 3 outs to the A, 1.5 outs to the backdoor flush, and 0.5 outs to the backdoor straight for a total of 8 outs. You need about 5:1 and you're getting much more than that. Therefore, I raise the flop as you have position on the flop bettor...

[/ QUOTE ]

I have position regardless. Position does not equate to "Therefore, I raise". What am I in position to do? I'm in position to raise the whole field with a draw that I'm *NOT* getting equity on (3 opponents, and 5:1 on my draw). This doesn't make sense! Raising has no chance of driving anyone out of the pot, so it doesn't protect my hand. All it seems to do is cost me money. Or...

[ QUOTE ]
by raising you will most likely buy a free card

[/ QUOTE ]

Re-read the original post for my comment on this. The player in the hand to my right seemed paranoid of giving free cards. There is a chance that he would have checked to me in this case since there are no obvious draws on the flop, but I'm not very comfortable with that.

[ QUOTE ]
and can get more info on the flop bettor's hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a disaster waiting to happen. If I get 3-bet, I'm still calling the flop, of course. Now suppose I catch my ace and he bets into me, what will I do? I'm certainly not folding, even though I have info that he has a reasonable hand on the flop. If I catch a queen, I'm in a similar position. I don't know if raising the turn is good or bad here, based on the extra 'information'. There's not enough space for me to know if he has a monster hand (2 pair or better) or just a strong hand (top pair). The information seems more expensive than it's worth. I'll simply continue onward cheaply and believe that my overcard outs are clean.

[rickw]

[ QUOTE ]
You most likely have 3 outs to the Q, 3 outs to the A, 1.5 outs to the backdoor flush, and 0.5 outs to the backdoor straight for a total of 8 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just a quick question. I am a newbie, so I am asking for advice on my own game rather than critiquing the above exchanges.

Sure there are 3 outs each to the A and the Q, but I've been reading SSHE which suggests valuing the overcard outs at 50% for purposes of making these kinds of analyses.

Just curious, is it really right to say you're getting 5:1 here and to believe the overcard outs are clean? I guess you have a rainbow, somewhat uncoordinated flop against 3 players who have called a preflop raise (noone called 2 bets cold, although the SB called 1.5). Is the thought process that there are not a lot of hands out there that would beat your overcards that would have called you preflop (pocket 5's, pocket 3's maybe, QJ--would you think that AJ would reraise?).

Also, post-flop, there were 2 callers, how does that affect the analysis?

Just curious as to the thinking there. I often struggle with the overcard situation.

[Rico Suave]

Aaron:

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Raising may give me a free card, but I don't think it's too likely at this particular table.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then just call and hope to hit the turn. Raising in this spot is primiarily for the free card play. If it is unlikely to work, do not do it...

--Rico

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
Sure there are 3 outs each to the A and the Q, but I've been reading SSHE which suggests valuing the overcard outs at 50% for purposes of making these kinds of analyses.


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't have SSH on me, so I can't look that up. But I do agree that my outs are not necessarily clean here and therefore must be discounted. I was using the information given to me from the other poster to make a point that raising here with odds to call isn't a reasonable thing to do. Discounting the overcards makes that case stronger.

[ QUOTE ]
Is the thought process that there are not a lot of hands out there that would beat your overcards that would have called you preflop (pocket 5's, pocket 3's maybe, QJ--would you think that AJ would reraise?).

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In this case, I have only a little bit of information to work from. AJ wouldn't 3-bet from the small blind, but both AJ and QJ are possible calling hands from there. SB came out betting after my preflop raise. I doubt that it's a pickup bet ("I hope nobody caught any piece of this, so I'll bet and see what happens" -- This happens surprisingly often at Paradise). There also are not any reasonable draws out there, so he's not pushing a draw. This leads me to think that he's got at least a pair. I'd be willing to put him on a pair of jacks here or maybe a medium pocket pair (the latter is less likely since he bet out from early position into a preflop raiser), because SB isn't super-agressive (so wouldn't push a pair of 5s).

How high can it go from there? I guess it could be a set, but I don't give credit for a set unless they show me something - betting a flop isn't showing me much.

In the end, though, it's definitely a call/raise situation. I've got position (huge), I can close the flop action (big), and the pot is too big to give up right now (I'm getting 11:1, which is good for a lot of things), though maybe I can give up on the turn if things don't go my way... I need to wait and see what happens there.

[ QUOTE ]
Also, post-flop, there were 2 callers, how does that affect the analysis?

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It means that I'm less inclined to raise. There are more hands out there and more ways I can be beat and they are not folding for one more bet. There's a higher chance that my overcard outs are not clean (maybe somebody has A3 or Q5 or something like that). If the bet had come from my immediate right, then raising forces the other players to call 2 cold and I stand a better chance of them folding. I don't really put them on much of anything yet, since a lot of players call flops with nothing. If one of them wakes up on the turn, then I'll try to put them on hands.

Hope this helps.

[rickw]

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Hope this helps.

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This was extremely helpful. Thanks very much for the reply.

[SlantNGo]

Call the flop, fold the turn if you don't pair up or pick up a draw.

1.5 outs for each overcard, 1.5 for the backdoor nut flush and 0.5 for the backdoor straight = 5 outs. Need 8 to 1, you're easily getting it. See if the turn improves your hand and re-evaluate. I wouldn't raise for a free card here because your hand loses value if you don't pick up a draw (even picking up the gutshot is good enough to see the river for 1 BB) on the turn. Hence, no reason to throw away that extra SB to see the river.

[gopnik]

The problem with just calling vs raising is that you expose your hand. Your opponents now KNOW that you have overcards, and unless another face card and an A comes out, they will know they have you beat (if they have ANY piece of the board).

[theghost]

...calls

(not that I have anything against blind aggression /images/graemlins/smile.gif)

[SlantNGo]

I disagree. Hero's read is that the table doesn't like to give a free card, so why does it matter if your opponents know that they have you beat? If they will bet the turn even if you raise for a free card, they will surely bet the turn if you just call, i.e. they will bet the turn no matter what you do, so who cares if they know they have you beat? You're not taking down this pot on AQs unimproved.

[gopnik]

[ QUOTE ]
If they will bet the turn even if you raise for a free card, they will surely bet the turn if you just call, i.e. they will bet the turn no matter what you do, so who cares if they know they have you beat?

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If they are at least half-thinking players, they would know that at this point Hero can have only two hands (not counting a small possibility of Hero having JJ): AK and AQ (since he would bet the J). Don't you think it gives them a huge advantage on the turn and the river?

[Ajax410]

If you're completely sure that raising will not give you a free card (which goes against most of my experiences...but your reads are yours alone), I guess raising is not a great idea. I am just skeptical of the concept that they won't check to you. I am not sure if I've ever sat down at a table where my raises got no respect.

Ajax

[fourpin]

I agree.
In addition to getting info and possibly getting a free card you may also earn a couple of folds.
those callers can't all like their draws that much. A raise gets more info on the cheap street. Raise.

[Aaron W.]

You're out-thinking yourself. It's not really an 'advantage' to them unless they respond approprately to their read. If I snag my overcard, it's not likely that they'll lay it down even if the 'know' I have it. Only in rare cases does top pair on the flop actually fold when overcards fall. I'll still get paid off (advantage: me).