I almost called ya'll to sweat me [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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Zinzan

10-25-2004, 03:13 AM

I was in the final two tables of a PartyPoker $30 multitable (450 entrants). I was going to call for some 2+2 support if I made it to the final table, but I ran into the hand below. I had a slightly above average stack, but was suddenly done. Can ya'll take a look and let me know what you think?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t2000 (9 handed)

saw flop|saw showdown

Button (t23667)
SB (t4676)
BB (t33108)
UTG (t7801)
Hero (t27126)
MP1 (t10830)
MP2 (t18943)
MP3 (t34299)
CO (t85149)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
1 fold, Hero raises to t4000, 2 folds, MP3 raises to t15500, 4 folds, Hero calls t11500.

Flop: (t34000) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero bets t11626 (All-In), MP3 calls t11626.

Turn: (t57252) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t57252) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: t57252
Main Pot: t57252 (t57252), between Hero and MP3.

I have to admit I never considered folding preflop. Should I have?

As it was, I thought (hoped?) he had an AK or low pocket pair. I called the preflop reraise with the intention of a stop-n-go, but...

But now I wonder if going all-in on the flop was a poor idea... only a better hand would call me, right? or maybe a lower pocket pair...

Putting myself in his shoes (now, which is too late), he can't think I've got a J, as I would have surely slow-played it, and I likely wouldn't have called his PF reraise with a single jack anyway. Four jacks would have definitely slow-played.

So he's gotta figure I've got a pocket pair; AK, if I'm really terrible.

So he would only call me if he's got a better pocket pair, right?

I could have checked on the flop, which is what someone with a jack would do, and then scare him with a non-all-in bet on the turn (which is how a jack might play it), but he would likely have bet into me on the flop...

Anyway, I'm analyzing my play when I should be asking you to analyze my play. Was there any way to get out of this hand without putting all my chips in the pot?

-Z

Che

10-25-2004, 03:24 AM

I would play it like this:

Hero raises to 5000, Villain raises to whatever, Hero raises/calls all-in.

Given the flop call, I push the flop.

Whatever the case, if the opponent has AA/KK he wins, but I'm not folding QQ on these stacks.

Later,
Che

fnurt

10-25-2004, 03:25 AM

Why can't he call you with a lower pocket pair? For that matter, he ought to call you with AK, with so much money already in the pot.

You could get cute here but with 34k already in the pot, and only 11k in your stack, I don't see any reason not to push the flop.

By the way, you suggested that you would have to be "really terrible" to push AK on this flop. But if you really think he is supposed to fold TT, 99, i.e. any pair lower than what you had, it wouldn't be so terrible for you to push AK, now would it?

remen

10-25-2004, 03:34 AM

What was your read on the player? Unless he was the extremely tight "limp into the final table at all costs" type I wouldn't consider folding preflop. I would have reraised all in preflop, especailly if you thought there was a good chance he had a lower pocket pair.

I don't really like the idea of a stop and go here. One of the ideas behind a stop and go is to make a better hand (a higher pocket pair, middle pair, TPNK, etc.)fold a large percent of the time. This will not happen with queens, you will only make worse hands fold and be called by hands that beat you.

Once you call his preflop reraise, you cannot fold on this flop. You have pot committed yourself. I don't think pushing all in right on the flop though. I might bet 3000 or so, whatever amount you think a lower pocket pair might pay off. If he has a jack, aces, or kings, then you are going to have to pay him off the remainder of your chips in my opinion.

JaBlue

10-25-2004, 04:26 AM

Push preflop

fnurt

10-25-2004, 08:41 AM

The thing is, if he folds AK on the flop, the stop-and-go worked, because he had odds to call with it.

He's probably not supposed to fold any reasonable hand for only 11k more, either preflop or on the flop. But by saving that 11k to bet on the flop, you at least raise his chances of making an incorrect fold from 0% to some positive number.

Zinzan

10-25-2004, 11:06 AM

Thanks for the analysis, guys. So far, looks like I had no choice but to play this hand for all my chips.

Anybody disagree? Any other thoughts?

A little more info... At this point, 18 players remained, which paid about $101. Tenth place only paid about $135. The big ladder increases didn't start until about seventh or sixth place.

Also, I had been seated with the Villain at two or three tables this tourney. He did make a number of steal attempts, but nothing out of the ordinary. I'd like to think I had a tight-aggressive table image, but I hadn't been at Table #2 for long.

And the reason I minimum raised the preflop was I was inviting someone to play back at me. I got what I wanted, but was a little surprised at the amount. In my mind, that overbet suggested he didn't want me to call.

-Z

Zinzan

10-25-2004, 07:26 PM

to the top

-Z

cferejohn

10-25-2004, 08:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The thing is, if he folds AK on the flop, the stop-and-go worked, because he had odds to call with it.

He's probably not supposed to fold any reasonable hand for only 11k more, either preflop or on the flop. But by saving that 11k to bet on the flop, you at least raise his chances of making an incorrect fold from 0% to some positive number.

[/ QUOTE ]

But if he now folds 99 or TT and he would have called the preflop all-in, you've cost yourself 11K. I'd just go ahead and push preflop. I don't imagine it's a large EV difference in any case.

No way I'm folding this hand at any point.