View Full Version : KJs Turn Decision
Nate tha' Great
10-25-2004, 03:03 AM
Party 15/30. I have K /images/graemlins/spade.gif J /images/graemlins/spade.gif and raise two loose, bad, and intermittantly aggressive limpers. Solid-seeming player 3-bets in the CO. Limpers call, as do I. BTW, my image at this particular table is shitty.
Flop Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif A /images/graemlins/spade.gif 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif. It's checked around.
Turn is K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. The first limper bets, next one folds.
Call, fold, or raise?
nepenthe
10-25-2004, 03:26 AM
I raise here and gauge the 3-bettor's reaction. 3-bet from anyone and I'm out. I take the free showdown at the river if I gain position. If the 3-bettor cold-calls, I'm in a tough spot and will probably check the river unimproved, perhaps with the intent of calling a single bet if I am heads-up at that point.
Michael Davis
10-25-2004, 03:29 AM
By the time you are threebet, though, you need to call and try to spike a T.
-Michael
Was you dilema trying to figure our if one of those first 2 limpers whiffed on a flop c/r?
When you're behind you have 3 nut outs (non-heart T's) and let's say the other T is .8 outs (I can't put anyone on a flush draw here given the action). So that's 3.8 outs. the 2 remaining K's are probably clean, let's say that's 1.5 outs. The jacks make you the scariest of 2 pairs; 3 of them left, let's say .5 outs each (total of 1.5). So thats 3.8+1.5+1.5 = 6.8 outs. Let's scale that back to 6.5 outs in case I got a little generous anywhere. With 6.5 outs you're a little worse than 6-1 dog. You're getting 6.5-1 and that's forgetting about the times you're ahead, so I say call.
I know you're a lot better at this kind of stuff than I am Nate, how'd I do?
Michael Davis
10-25-2004, 03:32 AM
I don't think you're giving enough consideration to the times the last player has a set and jacks it up on the turn.
-Michael
nepenthe
10-25-2004, 03:36 AM
I'm a little fuzzy on the math, didn't bother counting the bets, and did not believe I had sufficient odds to draw to the gutshot on the turn. If I do, then I believe the decision is closer between calling and raising. But I'd probably still raise. The 3-bettor is either trying to stupidly slowplay a flopped set or has a lower pair. You'll find out which it is more readily by raising.
Maybe you're right. Do you really think this is how he'd play a set?
Michael Davis
10-25-2004, 03:37 AM
I have no idea. The answer is no. But maybe.
-Michael
You're getting 6.5-1 and you're 10.5-1 on a gutshot.
[ QUOTE ]
The answer is no. But maybe.
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Lame cop out. /images/graemlins/grin.gif I just think the flop has too many scary turn cards that could come for a set to check closing the action.
Michael Davis
10-25-2004, 03:42 AM
I don't agree. You will find out equally if you raise or if you call. If you just call here and it gets raised, you know where you're at. If you raise and get called or threebet, again, you know where you're at. If he has a smaller pair, he's folding unless it happens to be TT. The raise just makes it more expensive.
-Michael
Nightwish
10-25-2004, 03:43 AM
Raise. The guy betting into you most likely has an A, a K with a worse kicker, a Q, or a flush draw. He may also have some combination of the above, but you need to raise because there's a good chance you have him beat. The solid-seeming player probably has either JJ/TT or a flush draw, and though I don't necessarily want to kick him out of this hand (unless he has a flush draw), I would still much rather get it heads up with the turn bettor.
Nightwish
10-25-2004, 03:46 AM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The answer is no. But maybe.
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Lame cop out. /images/graemlins/grin.gif I just think the flop has too many scary turn cards that could come for a set to check closing the action.
[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, the probability that the solid-seeming player flopped a set is very very low. He may have KK, but that's a bit of a stretch too given what our hero has and what came on the turn...
I would think he'd bet KK on the flop, no?
Nightwish
10-25-2004, 03:50 AM
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I would think he'd bet KK on the flop, no?
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Probably, except that if he has KK, that also means he has the K /images/graemlins/heart.gif and that might be enough to get him to check (I don't know if he has weak-tight tendencies or not). The main reason I don't worry about KK is that it's just one hand compared to all the other ones.
nepenthe
10-25-2004, 04:00 AM
[ QUOTE ]
I don't agree. You will find out equally if you raise or if you call. If you just call here and it gets raised, you know where you're at. If you raise and get called or threebet, again, you know where you're at. If he has a smaller pair, he's folding unless it happens to be TT. The raise just makes it more expensive.
-Michael
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Personally, the flop action to me suggests the 3-bettor has JJ, TT, and perhaps a lower PP. These types of situations make me quite uncomfortable and I would truly rather he fold the turn. I believe JJ, TT and perhaps lower could call a single bet in this spot if I just call. A raise will make him fold.
Then the question becomes: if I currently have the best hand, do I really want the 3-bettor to fold a hand like JJ/TT/99 etc.? My answer is yes, for reasons of clarity more than anything else. With a very vulnerable 2nd pair, I do not want to get called by a hand I do not know is worse than mine at the time it is called. The simple fact is, if I am going to continue with this hand at the turn - and I am at least until shown further aggression - I do not want to get called anymore. I want to take the pot down right then and there, which possibility is maximized by a raise.
Lawrence Ng
10-25-2004, 05:53 AM
Hi Nate,
I would raise and get it HU, check down the river unimproved.
Thomsen
10-25-2004, 06:01 AM
pair and gutshot - call
if threebettor raises call that as well and prepare to fold unimproved on the river
Nate tha' Great
10-25-2004, 07:21 PM
I called, CO folded. Turn was a blank, limper bet and I called. He had KT and my hand was good.
I'm not persuaded by the argument that I should raise the turn.
BottlesOf
10-25-2004, 07:32 PM
I was thinking call myself. I'm sure it was just a coincidence.
random
10-25-2004, 07:44 PM
I agree, a raise is awful. A solid seeming player would bet that flop 100% of the time if he has you beat. There's no reason to think the CO will call the turn, so there's no point in raising to get it heads up, when it should be anyway.
I'd feel like a total idiot if I got three-bet by the limper.
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