A very non-ABC hand

[durron597]

PokerRoom HH's acting up again. $20+$2 SnG, 9 handed. Hero is in LMP with A/images/graemlins/club.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif and 2000 chips (recall starting stacks 1500). Blinds 25/50, level 3.

Hero open-raises to 150, folded to Button (t1700) who just calls, blinds fold. I regard Button as an OK thinking player who is a bit too loose-pasive preflop and a bit too tight post flop, so I like being in pots with him.

Flop: K/images/graemlins/club.gif 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif 4/images/graemlins/club.gif (t375)
Hero bets t250, Villian calls.

Turn: K/images/graemlins/club.gif 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif 4/images/graemlins/club.gif T/images/graemlins/club.gif (t875)
Hero checks, Villian bets t300, Hero raises to t1300 (all-in),

[lorinda]

I like this up to the all-in.

I don't hate the all-in but I've found at these limits that people don't respect check-raises like they 'should', so I probably just call and see if I connect here.

However, with your read I think the play is fine.

Lori

[chill888]

[ QUOTE ]
PokerRoom HH's acting up again. $20+$2 SnG, 9 handed. Hero is in LMP with A/images/graemlins/club.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif and 2000 chips (recall starting stacks 1500). Blinds 25/50, level 3.

Hero open-raises to 150, folded to Button (t1700) who just calls, blinds fold. I regard Button as an OK thinking player who is a bit too loose-pasive preflop and a bit too tight post flop, so I like being in pots with him.

Flop: K/images/graemlins/club.gif 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif 4/images/graemlins/club.gif (t375)
Hero bets t250, Villian calls.

Turn: K/images/graemlins/club.gif 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif 4/images/graemlins/club.gif T/images/graemlins/club.gif (t875)
Hero checks, Villian bets t300, Hero raises to t1300 (all-in),

[/ QUOTE ]

Personally I don't get it.

You have nothing. The villain has shown some strength by calling both pre-flop and post-flop and now you want to risk the whole tourney - at this early stage and piss away a good stack - without any hand at all. In a situation where your opponent has already put a fair amount in the pot and has something - and maybe (?) improved on the turn to boot

Note: If you both checked post flop then his bet on the turn would be more suspicous - but he called a fair size bet post-flop so he has something.

While I understand the logic of your play, I'd like it far more later in the tourney at higher blinds - and if you'd both checked the turn.

I find a profitable golden rule is to (virtually) never put all my chips at risk if it is early on and my stack is healthy. That doesn't mean you can't be aggressive....but.....

Final thought: If I had a HUGE hand then your betting pattern is one of my favorites. That is bet the flop and check the turn. This looks (as your post implies) that you have nothing and almost always induces a bet from your opponent. Hugely profitable - especially against aggressive opponents.

gl

[kurosh]

The all-in is terrible. He has shown a lot of strength. He's will rarely fold. Do some math instead.

When he bets, there's 1175 in the pot. You only have to call 300. That's just about 4:1 pot odds. You have 9 outs to the nut flush and 3 questionable outs to an A so we'll give you 1.5 outs for them. With 1 card to come and 10.5 outs your odds to hit are roughly 3.4:1. You're getting the right odds to call. That's not even counting implied odds but I don't know if you'd be able to get much out of him with 4 clubs on the board.

Obvious call. If you miss, check/fold. If you hit, it's based on your read if you want to check-raise or bet.

[mackthefork]

[ QUOTE ]
When he bets, there's 1175 in the pot. You only have to call 300. That's just about 4:1 pot odds. You have 9 outs to the nut flush and 3 questionable outs to an A so we'll give you 1.5 outs for them.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you are giving him 1.5 outs for the aces then why not give him the queens as well, if the aces are good then the queens cetainly must be too. I like the push his opponents bet on the turn shows in my opinion that he probably doesn't have the flush, and wants to take it down now, if he holds KQo Qc then he calls I think but most other hands he should put it down. I'd be interested to know what happened though, and the results.

Regards Mack

[SmileyEH]

I call the turn.

-SmileyEH

[bugstud]

[ QUOTE ]
I regard Button as an OK thinking player who is a bit too loose-pasive preflop and a bit too tight post flop, so I like being in pots with him.

[/ QUOTE ]

Without this I dislike the play. Given you have some folding equity here with this description, I like the play.

[chill888]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I regard Button as an OK thinking player who is a bit too loose-pasive preflop and a bit too tight post flop, so I like being in pots with him.

[/ QUOTE ]

Without this I dislike the play. Given you have some folding equity here with this description, I like the play.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. This read is all the more reason to fold as his call post flop was anything but tight.

[PrayingMantis]

The A and K of clubs are visible, so most chances villain does not have the flush, and his betting does not indicate a flush draw that hit. He's probably on a weak K. Now, you have 15 outs (best case scenrio, but I think it's not far from reality here, and I don't think your A outs are tainted, unless he hit 2p on the turn, which is possible).

So basically it comes down to how often villain is folding his marginal K. With the sucking-out potential of your hand, I'd say that if he folds >~15% it's a +CEV spot. The question is, is this enough for risking your stack here? It depends on the overall dynamics of the game. However, If your opp is capable of folding his K here more than 30% of the time, I think it's a good move. _Very_ read depnedant, though. Many "OK thinking" on-line players, like you say about him, will not read your check-raise as a flush, but as a tricky-aggressive play. I've seen so many calls on such spots (not necessarily with me in the hand), so it's pretty marginal, IMO.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
The all-in is terrible. He has shown a lot of strength. He's will rarely fold. Do some math instead.


[/ QUOTE ]

What strength has he shown? He flatcalled me preflop, why didn't he raise? Preflop means he doesn't have a premium hand and postflop he tells me he has a King. Thus, his range of hands is KQ-KT, K9 if I'm feeling hopeful.

[ QUOTE ]

When he bets, there's 1175 in the pot. You only have to call 300. That's just about 4:1 pot odds. You have 9 outs to the nut flush and 3 questionable outs to an A so we'll give you 1.5 outs for them.


[/ QUOTE ]

I also have a broadway gutshot, none of which are dirty (though he may have a queen). So I would say 14 outs is approximately a good number.

[ QUOTE ]

That's not even counting implied odds but I don't know if you'd be able to get much out of him with 4 clubs on the board.


[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously you understand that means my hand has reverse implied odds; he won't pay me off when the 4th club hits. My flush outs are only good for semibluffing; he is folding the river when the fourth club hits.

[ QUOTE ]

Obvious call. If you miss, check/fold.


[/ QUOTE ]

While that's clear, realize I already have 35% of my stack in by the river with your line. Not a good way to win tournaments, putting 35% of my stack in and then folding.

[ QUOTE ]

If you hit, it's based on your read if you want to check-raise or bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

No it isn't. I would have to check-raise, because he will fold if I bet unless a non-club queen comes off and he has exactly KQ. But he will bet into to me with that anyway.

--------------------------------------------------

Does anyone dispute the range of hands I put him on? If he has exactly KT, then I have 13 outs. I have 16 outs against KJ and 15 outs against KQ.

RESULTS:

He tanked for a very long time, then typed into the chat "folding KQs" and folded.

[Cleveland Guy]

I think you are missing something here that could pay you off if that 4th club hits.

If he is holding KQ, or KJ, with the Q or J being the /images/graemlins/club.gif I think he is very likely to pay you off on the river. I also think that you be a very reasonable holding here, that the club would hurt you if he has the 2nd nut or 3rd nut flush.

[durron597]

So basically what you're saying is, I should call 20% of my remaining stack to get paid off what's in the pot 1/3 of the time, his stack 1/12 of the time and lose the bet the rest of the time, when the alternative is that I can win what's in the pot uncontested over 2/3 of the time?

I was fairly certain that this player was not calling without KT, KxQc, or KxJc. I thought he might have had K9s, too, and that means he folds often enough to make this a clear allin. Also, I felt he likely would have bet more on the turn with KT.

[Cleveland Guy]

[ QUOTE ]
So basically what you're saying is, I should call 20% of my remaining stack to get paid off what's in the pot 1/3 of the time, his stack 1/12 of the time and lose the bet the rest of the time, when the alternative is that I can win what's in the pot uncontested over 2/3 of the time?

I was fairly certain that this player was not calling without KT, KxQc, or KxJc. I thought he might have had K9s, too, and that means he folds often enough to make this a clear allin. Also, I felt he likely would have bet more on the turn with KT.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sorry- I misread your comments. I thought I was trying to defend your push, maybe I wasn't clear.

What I was saying, is that he is going to call your all in with KQc thinking he has the lead, and if he doesn't he is drawing to the 2nd nuts so his Qc is good in his mind.

I think the push was good. He will fold a fair amount of hands, have enough hands worth calling that you will beat on the river.

And if you don't hit your 14 outer - then it's on to the next SnG.

[Rococo]

There is too much variance in this play to make it worthwhile against the yahoos that play $20 SNGs.

Moreover, I assume that you wouldn't have taken this line if you had "known" that your opponent had top pair. In that case, why not check the flop. If your read is correct, he likely will lead into you only if he has top pair. If he has a king, then your "move" has too little chance of success to be worth it. If he checks behind, you almost certainly are ahead, and can take it down on the turn.

Your line stuck you with one third of your stack committed in a hand where you were way behind and had little chance of catching up. It was mere good fortune that a $20 SNG player let go of top pair on the turn.

[durron597]

You don't seem to realize that I was factoring in the sort of player this was into my decision.

And the $20 players on PokerRoom are not total fish, for the record.

Edit: Yes, I would not have taken this line if I knew he hit top pair when I bet the flop. However, when he called me I knew what he had, but the turn gave me a great semi-bluff card, and I took advantage of it.

[chill888]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
PokerRoom HH's acting up again. $20+$2 SnG, 9 handed. Hero is in LMP with A/images/graemlins/club.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif and 2000 chips (recall starting stacks 1500). Blinds 25/50, level 3.

Hero open-raises to 150, folded to Button (t1700) who just calls, blinds fold. I regard Button as an OK thinking player who is a bit too loose-pasive preflop and a bit too tight post flop, so I like being in pots with him.

Flop: K/images/graemlins/club.gif 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif 4/images/graemlins/club.gif (t375)
Hero bets t250, Villian calls.

Turn: K/images/graemlins/club.gif 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif 4/images/graemlins/club.gif T/images/graemlins/club.gif (t875)
Hero checks, Villian bets t300, Hero raises to t1300 (all-in),

[/ QUOTE ]

Personally I don't get it.

You have nothing. The villain has shown some strength by calling both pre-flop and post-flop and now you want to risk the whole tourney - at this early stage and piss away a good stack - without any hand at all. In a situation where your opponent has already put a fair amount in the pot and has something - and maybe (?) improved on the turn to boot

Note: If you both checked post flop then his bet on the turn would be more suspicous - but he called a fair size bet post-flop so he has something.

While I understand the logic of your play, I'd like it far more later in the tourney at higher blinds - and if you'd both checked the turn.

I find a profitable golden rule is to (virtually) never put all my chips at risk if it is early on and my stack is healthy. That doesn't mean you can't be aggressive....but.....

Final thought: If I had a HUGE hand then your betting pattern is one of my favorites. That is bet the flop and check the turn. This looks (as your post implies) that you have nothing and almost always induces a bet from your opponent. Hugely profitable - especially against aggressive opponents.

gl

[/ QUOTE ]


There are without doubt different ways to be a winning player --- but i still don't get all the posts here supporting this early game waste of chips. But still trying to learn

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
and that means he folds often enough to make this a clear allin.

[/ QUOTE ]

durron, this _might_ be a good move in certain circumstances and against a player you know and read very well, but it is very very far from a clear all-in. It's true you got a fold this time, but it's still not enough to evaluate the real EV of this move against this player, even though you have a general read on him. Sure, it is better against this player than against some loose caller, but the fact is, it's still a marginal, probably too risky move for the buy-in you're playing. Unless it is played like a complete rock-garden, and in this case, I guess you better move to play this buy-in at another site.

[lorinda]

This post is not aimed at Mantis, I'm just replying to the end of the thread.

People really need to take the time to factor in the player description.
It's quite rare that we get such a good description of the player and yet many people in this thread have treated this as a straightforward play.

Whilst your conclusions may or may not be the same, it is critical that when you have a read you apply it and explain why you make the play you do within that description.

There is certainly a case for saying that a tight player "has something and so won't fold" here, but also there is just as certainly some figure to be put on the amount you can get from getting a "tight, thinking player" to fold to a check-raise.

As always, this is not meant to be a flame if it sounds harsh, just telling it how it is.... it will help your game.

Lori

[chill888]

[ QUOTE ]
This post is not aimed at Mantis, I'm just replying to the end of the thread.

People really need to take the time to factor in the player description.
It's quite rare that we get such a good description of the player and yet many people in this thread have treated this as a straightforward play.

Whilst your conclusions may or may not be the same, it is critical that when you have a read you apply it and explain why you make the play you do within that description.

There is certainly a case for saying that a tight player "has something and so won't fold" here, but also there is just as certainly some figure to be put on the amount you can get from getting a "tight, thinking player" to fold to a check-raise.

As always, this is not meant to be a flame if it sounds harsh, just telling it how it is.... it will help your game.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi Lori,

I agree that player reads are essential in many of these hand debates. Still, in this one the player was described as too tight post flop -- yet he called a 250 bet post flop --- that means alarm bells to me.

Again different strokes ... but for me to go allin at the time the poster did .. i would need a read that says he goes all in with great hands but small bets with bluffs --- AND can lay down against reraises.

I still think this hand is a great example of thrwoing (or trying to throw) away chips.

gl

[durron597]

chill:

If I said this was a $200 + $15, what would you think of the play?

If you like it more there, why? Ok, now factor in my read of the player on the hand.

Would you call with KQ there?

[chill888]

[ QUOTE ]
chill:

If I said this was a $200 + $15, what would you think of the play?

If you like it more there, why? Ok, now factor in my read of the player on the hand.

Would you call with KQ there?

[/ QUOTE ]


Guy could be a fool for all I care.....

Look my analysis fits my style. You had a healthy stack and went broke (or all-in with not much) against someone that showed strength, early in a tourney.

To me that is almost always bad play -- screw the cards. If I go broke early --- I have a pretty damn good hand (at least) --- this rule serves me well.

gl

[kurosh]

Oh sorry, I missed the gutshot. Yes, he probably does have KQ-KT but can you count on a $20 PP SNG player to lay down top pair? I've completely stopped bluffing because for the most part they DONT lay down top pair with any kicker.

[Rococo]

You didn't really answer my question. Given your read, why not check the flop and let him tell you whether he has a K. That way, you don't commit 1/3 of your chips with A high and backdoor straight and flush draws.

I agree that not all of the Pokerroom $20 SNG players are fish, but I assume that you agree that a great many are terrible.

One last thing -- as a number of people have pointed out, your line is disastrous if your read is inaccurate. I don't see how you could be rock solid on this read so early in the SNG unless you had played with this player before. Be careful about constructing the "read" after the fact in order to justify a bad play that happened to work out.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
If I said this was a $200 + $15, what would you think of the play?

[/ QUOTE ]

The higher you go in buy-ins, the tougher is the opposition, and so every +CEV spot is more valueable for you. That's why it should be a much better spot in terms of CEV than the equivalent spot in a higher level. And this is part of the reason why marginal +CEV moves with high risk, in low buy-in SNGs, are generally not such a good idea for a strong player.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see how you could be rock solid on this read so early in the SNG unless you had played with this player before.

[/ QUOTE ]

I had.

[PrayingMantis]

Good post, lori. I agree with you about this tendency of replying to posts without paying much attention to specific posted reads. Althogh there is always the opposite danger: of taking reads too far, and forgetting other, sometimes more important strategical factors. But it's always interesting, important and educating to discuss hands in light of reads.

[durron597]

I think we all agree that my line is terrible against an unknown $20+2 player. What, then, is the correct line? I felt that this was a great flop to stab at, in general, because I have the A/images/graemlins/club.gif - I am not against the nut flush draw; also, I am not against multiple big cards, so I may get some PPs to lay down here, as well as AQ and the infrequent guy who calls with QJ.

So on the turn, do we check-call an unknown? Lead out push? (this is bad, IMO). Check-fold? We got one of the best cards in the deck for our hand, is it not good enough to stay in once we hit flop resistance?

[Rococo]

I do not agree that this is a good flop to take a stab at. Why not check the flop and lead on turn when he checks behind (or fold if he bets into you). If an A hits on the turn, you value bet. If a rag hits, you can lead with a decent-sized bet, which will look a hell of a lot like you have AK and whiffed on a flop check-raise.

[durron597]

When you raise with a non-PP, you miss the flop 2/3 of the time. Do you always check-fold when you miss? If yes, come play in some SnGs with me.

[Rococo]

Give me a break. I could ask you whether you autobet every flop that you miss, so long as you were the preflop raiser. I understand that it depends on the situation, and in this situation, your play was incorrect.

First, you were out of position. Second, AJ is marginal as a raising hand, even if you are the first person in the pot in middle position. Barring a miracle flop, you do not, DO NOT, want to end up playing a large pot with AJ. Third, your "read" suggests that you could have found out exactly where you were by checking. Fourth, if your opponent does not have a king, he probably has a middle pair or a set. If he has a pair, he is unlikely to improve and you can push the issue on the turn if you still can't keep it in your pants. If he has a set, which is obviously unlikely, you gain nothing by firing on the flop. Fifth, you had no reason to think that he had a draw since he called a preflop raise and you held the A /images/graemlins/club.gif in your hand.

The more I think about it, the more certain I am that your line is very bad for a NL game, although it might make more sense in NL cash game.

[HoldingFolding]

Great thread. Shows me I still have a lot to learn. I would have vacillated between folding and calling, before calling, then folding on the river when none of my outs turned up. I'd then spend the next 5 minutes brooding on where half my chips had gone.

Durron's logic has a certain beauty and I guess that's what makes the games so fascinating.

Would this be better or worse suited to an MTT?

[durron597]

Fair enough. Can you give me an example where you would bet out on a missed flop, out of position? Say you raise from the CO with AKs, and the Button calls. What would the flop have to be, and what kind of player would you have to be up against, for you to take a stab?

[adanthar]

For whatever reason, I get your name and Desdia's confused a lot. It's not a reflection of your posting or play or anything, it just so happens that they feel similar in my head.

When I read the first post, it happened again, and my first reaction was 'oh, another post where he justifies his terrible play with results or says 'my opponent is such a fish for calling with top pair weak kicker''.

Take from that what you will. Personally, I'd much rather do this with KxJc (minus the PF raise part) or AK and would probably never do it without *some* form of a made hand.

[durron597]

I just want to be very clear. In a similar (though clearly not identical) thought process to PrayingMantis's Q9 hand, this hand should and would never happen without a read (on my watch anyway).