77 against Aggressive Guy

[ddubois]

This LAG has been playing back at me repeatedly, restealing, coming over the top of my flop bets, etc. I felt I needed to make a stand.

***** Hand History for Game 1096838537 *****
NL Hold'em $50 Buy-in + $5 Entry Fee Trny:6714243 Level:3 Blinds(25/50) - Sunday, October 24, 17:47:55 EDT 2004
Table Table 12059 (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 7
Seat 1: columbiahawk ( $1862 )
Seat 4: teetime ( $1015 )
Seat 5: RobertAless ( $1015 )
Seat 6: yurabond ( $1894 )
Seat 3: xxmgfxx ( $1626 )
Seat 2: P0K3RM4N ( $1035 )
Seat 8: JoBlue ( $1553 )
Trny:6714243 Level:3
Blinds(25/50)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to P0K3RM4N [ 7s 7d ]
P0K3RM4N raises [150].
xxmgfxx calls [150].
teetime folds.
RobertAless folds.
yurabond folds.
JoBlue folds.
columbiahawk folds.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 5s, Tc, 2c ]
P0K3RM4N bets [200].
xxmgfxx is all-In.
P0K3RM4N is all-In.
** Dealing Turn ** [ Ah ]
** Dealing River ** [ Jh ]
P0K3RM4N shows [ 7s, 7d ] a pair of sevens.
xxmgfxx shows [ Ad, Qs ] a pair of aces.
P0K3RM4N finished in seventh place.
xxmgfxx wins 591 chips from side pot #1 with a pair of aces.
xxmgfxx wins 2145 chips from the main pot with a pair of aces.
P0K3RM4N has left the table.

He had precisely what I put him on, so I got all my money in as a nearly 3:1 favorite. In a sense, I guess I should be happy (althought I'm not, I'm pissed off, tournaments are stupid). Few questions: How often will this guy fold if I push - I'm confident the number is less than 100%. In other words, what's my fold equity? Consequently, is it more EV to get all-in as a 2.5:1 favorite, or to win the pot straight away?

[durron597]

When your hand is vulnerable, don't let LAGs come over the top of you. The pot was 375, so a pot-sized bet would have been 40% of your remaining stack. You can easily go allin here.

I would expect that he would have come over the top of you preflop with an overpair, so you can move in here when the only range of hands that's beating you here is overcards + flush draw or AT.

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
When your hand is vulnerable, don't let LAGs come over the top of you. The pot was 375, so a pot-sized bet would have been 40% of your remaining stack. You can easily go allin here.

[/ QUOTE ]
Which would you prefer: Winning 375 now, or getting the LAG to put in 885 more chips when you are a 73:27 (http://twodimes.net/h/?z=572856) favorite? I don't think it is close. Increasing your chance to survive this hand by 27% is not worth 300 chips. You can't afford to make many 300 chip mistakes.

LAG players overplays hands. Exploit this by encouraging them to overplay hands, not by trying to push them out before they get a chance to misplay. Encourage the LAG to come over the top.

[ddubois]

Well, there's 885 in my stack. If he will fold 80% of the time to a push, that should be about 436 +EV. If I can induce him to go all-in, that should be 681 +EV. So it's more like 250 than 300 chips, but getting him to fold has signifigantly less variance. What is that variance worth?

I have to wonder if my thinking may be results-oriented/tainted. I obviously can't "know" he had overcards. He could have been slow-playing AA, he could have had a T and caught, whatever. I should have him on a range of cards that includes flush draws, a T, bigger pairs, anything. Mabye I should fold to his re-raise, and got lucky that I was so far ahead this time. I just don't know.

[chill888]

personally, playing 77 like that when your stack is over 20x BB and you know your up against a loose aggressive guy is just asking to go broke. Sure you may catch him and double up .. but 77 ain't much especially post flop. Even if you were ahead ... you are gambling.

I don't see why you said you felt you needed to make a stand ..... it's still so early in the tourney.

Personally, I'd still be patient and limp preflop (or check/small bet post flop -- if I'd been called preflop). My stack is still healthy and I never let myself go broke or all-in with essentially a mediocre hand early on.

That doesn't mean I won't play aggressive, not at all. But I (virtually) never will get all in in the early stages of a tourney without a very good hand. It's just not worth it.


On the other hand, if you feel you can read the guy so well (!) that you know you were ahead post flop, then fair enough -- but accept the fact that you will go broke fairly often at this early stage of the tourney - it's the cost of often doubling up against a lag.

my 2 cents,


gl

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, there's 885 in my stack. If he will fold 80% of the time to a push, that should be about 436 +EV. If I can induce him to go all-in, that should be 681 +EV. So it's more like 250 than 300 chips,

[/ QUOTE ]
That is a useless calculation. If your opponent is going to push or call your push, it is a wash, and you should ignore that case. When you are deciding whether to push, you should assume it matters. If your opponent will fold to a push, and will push if you don't, then pushing loses an average of about 300 chips. Whether it is there or not, that is the carrot you sought by trapping your aggressive opponent by making the weak-seeming 200 bet.

[ QUOTE ]
but getting him to fold has signifigantly less variance. What is that variance worth?

[/ QUOTE ]
It's worth a lot less than 300 chips. By the independent chip model, you win $64.60 if you pick up the pot on the flop, and $73.71 if you get all of the chips in. That suggests the added variance costs you about 120 chips.

If you didn't want to risk this type of situation, why did you raise with 77 when you were 4 off the button?

[ QUOTE ]
I have to wonder if my thinking may be results-oriented/tainted. I obviously can't "know" he had overcards. He could have been slow-playing AA, he could have had a T and caught, whatever. I should have him on a range of cards that includes flush draws, a T, bigger pairs, anything.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is healthy. Make sure you include lower pocket pairs in that range.

[ QUOTE ]
Mabye I should fold to his re-raise

[/ QUOTE ]
This is sick. He kept coming over the top of you. First, this means he keeps getting involved in hands where you are involved, which means he is either not selective or is getting hit by the deck. Deal out random hands, and see how frequently they have even 6 outs against a pair between top and middle pair. Second, consider that you are getting almost 2:1. You would love to take your stand with top set, but this is good enough.