Bellagio 15-30: Back in the Saddle

I took my biggest beating ever at the poker tables two weekends ago in the Bellagio 15-30 stud game (three full-houses cracked each in ~$500 pots). Since then, I stepped down in limits and played the Mirage 10-20 and 5-10 games to get a few wins under my belt and boost the my confidence. Fortunately, it worked and I played some 15-30 again tonight. And won! But just $170.


Here's my worst played hand of the evening (Why post a well-played hand?).


The third street boards are:


(x,x)4c

(Js,Qd)Jc

(x,x)6h

(x,x)9d

(x,x)Kh

(x,x)Ts

(x,x)6s

(x,x)5d


The low-card 4c brings it in for $5. I raise to $15. Everybody folds to the 5d. He thinks for about a second when the action gets to him and then raises.


I didn't know what to make of the brief pause. Perhaps, it meant nothing. However, I thought it may have meant my Jacks were currently good and this player wanted to play the hand heads-up by getting the low-card to fold.


I put him on this range of hands from best to worst: (5,5)5, (A,A)5, (K,K)5, (Q,Q)5, (J,J)5 (5,A)5, (5,K)5, (5,Q)5. It was possible he held (Ad,Kd)5d but I didn't get the impression he would reraise with this hand based on his play over the previous hours.


The low card 4c called both raises cold. I called. Three players saw fourth street.


The fourth Street boards are:


(x,x)4c,9s

(Js,Qd)Jc,6d

(x,x)5d,Kc


The 5d,Kc (3rd street reraiser) bet. Both of us called.


The fifth street boards are:


(x,x)4c,9s,2h

(Js,Qd)Jc,6d,7h

(x,x)5d,Kc,3s


The 5d,Kc,3s bet. The low-card 4c folded. I called.


The sixth street boards are:


(Js,Qd)Jc,6d,7h,8h

(x,x)5d,Kc,3s,5c


My opponent bet and I folded.

usually means he has a strong hand--your J's were beat on 3rd and he expected U to call him down.

A first-time "fold" would have been better than a call on 3rd.

Happy pokering,

Sitting Bull

Ps The longer the "pause",the stronger the hand--in general--Caro's tell

Of course,after a one-time fold of a reasonably strong hand,U need to try to use some sort of "Game Theory" technique to keep your opponent(s) from running over U.

U might want to call down a player's raise when U have 2 red cards on 3rd and fold if you don't.

This technique will give U some random calling and folding decisions.

Try to pick up a non-generic tell in your opponent to determine whether he's weak or strong.

Sitting Bull,


Generally corect with the pause or "betting weak" means a strong hand. But at 15-30, doesn't everyone know this and therefore mix in reverse tells? Sort of an I know, you know that I know thing.

He had a good idea of what you had. You had only the broadest idea of what he had. As you said, he wouldn't have raised with nothing. In any case, you hadn't improved and he had. You probably saved yourself $60.00.


You could have raised him back on third, then when the king came, you would have position on him for the rest of the hand. The other option is to fold.


Why do you think you played the hand poorly?

I am not sure why you thought you played the hand badly. The only critique i would have is that you should have raised him on fourth or fifth street. then you would know what type of hand he had. but if you were worried that he had a strong hand then you should have played it the way you did. for some reason this play is made more often in holdem than in stud.


Pat

I don't think I played the hand too badly. However, there is one substantial mistake in the hand. I never gave myself a chance to win the pot by making a 4th or 5th street raise. A 5th street raise may have gotten and unimproved pair of 5s to fold. At the very least, a raise may have given mre a free card if I chose to take it. I needed to show some aggression after 3rd street.

15-30 or higher limit game,don't assume most players are sophisticated enough to do "reverse tells".

In this case,I would assume that MOST players at any limit haven't even read Caro's book of tells.

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I was viewing Caro's tape on "tells" where he was assuming all players were professionals.

Hence,this "tell' can be readily applied to professional players.

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I believe that MOST players,on a percentage basis,do not even read a poker book more than once--at any playing level.

I do not have any data to back this statement up--just a hunch.

If I'm wrong and U have data to back-up what U say,let me know.

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Of course,the most important tell(s) are the non-generic ones peculiar to an individual player.


Happy Pokering,

Sitting Bull

From trial and error, I have found that the pause works. Obviously, not every time, but occasionally I will pause if I want a player to call. I play at limits up to 15 - 30 and find that anything that makes the other player "curious" increases the chance of a call.


Especially in your hand, Dynasty, where he had had time to think already, it was probably deliberate.


DJ