Game 3: Suppan favored over Pedro?

[Clarkmeister]

That's the current line, oddly enough.

Suppan -117
Pedro +109

Of course, I thought it was nuts that Suppan was favored over the Rocket in Game 7 against Houston too, but still...........

[challenger84]

Suppan is the great white hope. He absolutely must pitch a gem and not let the Red Sox have any hope in game 3. We need a 3 game sweep in beer field.

[craig r]

My guess is that the money comes in on Pedro also....

craig

[nolanfan34]

Given the fact that the Cards haven't lost at home, and you can expect their bats to heat up, this isn't too shocking to me. It will be interesting to see which Pedro shows up on Tuesday.

If Boston keeps making blunders in the field, they're going to be in trouble really quick. They've caught a ton of breaks in this series - I can think of a bunch of Cardinal line drives that happened to be hit right at someone - and the series is far from over.

Obviously they will need to sweep at home though, and if they can get to Pedro, Lowe is no sure thing, and they've already hit Wakefield hard once....

[Uston]

Poor defense by a pretty good defensive team has led to nine of the Cardinals' eleven runs in this series and you're bitching about not catching breaks?

Lowe is no sure thing, and they've already hit Wakefield hard once....

Are you suggesting that Marquis is a sure thing and the Red Sox couldn't touch Williams in game one? /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[nolanfan34]

[ QUOTE ]
Are you suggesting that Marquis is a sure thing and the Red Sox couldn't touch Williams in game one? /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm really getting tired of you Boston fans using logical arguments to make your points. You were a lot more fun when you were convinced your team was cursed and would blow it somehow. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[ThaSaltCracka]

[ QUOTE ]
Poor defense by a pretty good defensive team has led to nine of the Cardinals' eleven runs in this series and you're bitching about not catching breaks?

[/ QUOTE ] How is that catching breaks? There team D is not all that good, except for really two people. I don't consider a team with average to below average d making errors as a "break".

[Uston]

How many errors did Boston make in the regular season? Was it less than 648?

[Uston]

I'm not convinced this series is over, by any stretch. Derek Lowe has been horrible for nearly the entire season and Wakefield doesn't fill me with confidence (I'm praying Arroyo gets the game five start). That said, this Boston lineup is a machine and there isn't a Cardinal starter who isn't a dog to see the sixth inning in this series. If ineffectiveness doesn't get them, having to throw 20+ pitches every inning will.

[ThaSaltCracka]

[ QUOTE ]
How many errors did Boston make in the regular season? Was it less than 648?

[/ QUOTE ]

118 errors, only 5 teams had more, and not surprisingly,all 5 of those teams were horrible this year. Here is another fun fact, Boston also had the worst zone rating with an .829. Which means Boston gets to less balls than most teams, which would leave this Cracka to draw one conclusion. Boston, with their apparently terrible range, makes errors on easy plays.

[MrGo]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not convinced this series is over, by any stretch.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you've paid any attention to this post-season, you should know this is a long way from over.

[Uston]

Most of those numbers are largely irrelevant in relation to the current team. Boston no longer has the worst defensive RF in baseball (Kevin Millar) playing half of his games in the in the toughest RF in MLB and Boston now has a gold glove SS.

[ThaSaltCracka]

three of those 118 errors are from Millar in RF.

Bellhorn had 11 at 2b and Mueller had 14 at 3rd and 3 at 2b.

Their outfield actually plays pretty good D(excluding Manny, who coincidently has a worse ZR than Bonds /images/graemlins/confused.gif)

[challenger84]

[ QUOTE ]
three of those 118 errors are from Millar in RF.

[/ QUOTE ]




Oh snap.

[ThaSaltCracka]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
three of those 118 errors are from Millar in RF.

[/ QUOTE ]




Oh snap.

[/ QUOTE ]

Stats don't lie /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[Uston]

Maybe you should post relevant stats. Errors from the RF position? Doesn't get much more irrelevant than that.

The truth is that Boston went from the worst defensive SS in the AL this season to one of the three or four best and they'll have the best defensive infield in the AL whenever they have a two or more run lead in the late innings.

[ThaSaltCracka]

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe you should post relevant stats. Errors from the RF position? Doesn't get much more irrelevant than that.


[/ QUOTE ]
If you weren't trying to prove or insinuate something with this statement I would be laughing my ass of right now, but no, you are in fact trying to tell me that my stats are irrelavent when you in fact stated that 118 errors this year are meaningless because : Most of those numbers are largely irrelevant in relation to the current team. Boston no longer has the worst defensive RF in baseball (Kevin Millar) playing half of his games in the in the toughest RF in MLB and Boston now has a gold glove SS.
I then tell you that Millar had 3 errors in RF which completely pisses all over your theory. I didn't mention anything about SS, but in case you were wondering, Nomar had 4 errors there. I then showed that Mueller and Bellhorn each had over 10 errors this year, which is also irrelevant, right?

You can choose to ignore the stats if you want, but you have done nothing to prove me wrong.

[Uston]

Obviously, I'm not impressed with the ability of the error to show defensive incompetence, especially for outfielders.

Or do you really think Deivi Cruz is a better defensive SS than Ozzie Smith?

[ThaSaltCracka]

does zone rating do it for you? Millars was over .800, and IMO anything below .8 is bad.

[Uston]

I will admit that Millar's defensive stats are better than I would have expected, having watched roughly 80% of every inning Boston played this year. Career number indicate that Nixon is a far superior defensive outfielder, though, and Boston now has both Dave Robers and Gabe Kapler as late inning defensive replacements.

[ThaSaltCracka]

true, I think excluding Cabrera, their starting infield is very weak though, then of course Manny....

[scalf]

/images/graemlins/grin.gif.. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

home-cookin' baby..

who's ure dayddy

gl

cards in g3 big lay the 1.5

gl

/images/graemlins/smile.gif /images/graemlins/club.gif

[craig r]

I am concerned about this line being a boston fan. And maybe Sublime can give his input. but, it seems everytime a pitcher (or team) should be favored and they are not, the linesmakers favorite wins or covers. I was suprised that Pedro was not favored. He is a better pitcher than Suppan. But, why is he not? Is everbody going to jump on pedro and then the books will make a killing?

[scrub]

[ QUOTE ]
118 errors, only 5 teams had more, and not surprisingly,all 5 of those teams were horrible this year. Here is another fun fact, Boston also had the worst zone rating with an .829. Which means Boston gets to less balls than most teams, which would leave this Cracka to draw one conclusion. Boston, with their apparently terrible range, makes errors on easy plays.

[/ QUOTE ]

Boston isn't a great, or even a very good defensive team.

But the Cracka would do well to compare the defensive stats pre- and post-trade. The team went from being embarrasingly bad defensively to being adequate to average.

scrub

[ThaSaltCracka]

they got better at short, but Mienkewitz didn't play enough at first to say that 1B improved. I suppose there is a good possibility that they all started playing better, but I am not sure you can attribute that to the trade. Also, I am sure several early season injuries to some key players probably had something to do with that as well. Lets just say this is not a team that wins with defense.

[scrub]

[ QUOTE ]

true, I think excluding Cabrera, their starting infield is very weak though, then of course Manny....

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. But, at least at Fenway, we have the luxury of top notch defensive replacements and a lineup that tends to get to starting pitching.

The prospect of Ortiz on first makes me very, very afraid. Bellhorn has been a liability all year.

scrub

[Clarkmeister]

[ QUOTE ]
I am concerned about this line being a boston fan. And maybe Sublime can give his input. but, it seems everytime a pitcher (or team) should be favored and they are not, the linesmakers favorite wins or covers. I was suprised that Pedro was not favored. He is a better pitcher than Suppan. But, why is he not? Is everbody going to jump on pedro and then the books will make a killing?

[/ QUOTE ]

Oddly enough, and I do think it is odd, the line has actually moved to make Suppan even more of a favorite. He's at -124 last I saw with Pedro at +114.

[craig r]

so, i wonder if that is "square" money coming in on suppan or "sharp" money...of course..it might be a good line and all money might be "square." generally if the line moves slowly in one direction it is not "sharps" moving it. i really thought the money would pour in on Pedro. Unless all the talk about homefield advantage for the cards is getting people to take the cards

craig

[sublime]

Craig-

Stl has not been an underdog at home since mid-june. the last time they were an underdog at home they were playing the okaland A's and suppan was +120(against hudson). before that they were a dog at home during april/may against pitchers such as oswalt/beckett/clementand wood.

a big deal was made of the fact that clemens was a dog to suppan in game 7, but in fact on 9/14 clemens pitched at stl against suppan and the line closed at suppan -120. compare that to game 7 in which suppan closed at -107.

side note: martinez was a "dog" once (line closed at +100) against santana at minny on 8/1. the sox lost 4-3 and martinez pitched a very good game

go sox

[sublime]

Oddly enough, and I do think it is odd, the line has actually moved to make Suppan even more of a favorite. He's at -124 last I saw with Pedro at +114

if this were aregular season game i would guess you would see a line of StL -110/-115. add in the national exposure and the "must win" situation and this line doesnt really surprise me

[craig r]

thanks sublime,

i did not know this about clemens in the regular season. but, now it makes much more sense.

[goofball]

since he has two gold glovers sitting on the bench, clearly francona values the hitting of bellhornmillar over the defense of reese mientkxxxz

[ThaSaltCracka]

He should too.

But errors can be magnified in the playoffs. Buckner anyone?

[daryn]

they can? good thing we didn't make 4 in each of the first two games.

we did? wow, what's up with that?

[ThaSaltCracka]

[ QUOTE ]
they can? good thing we didn't make 4 in each of the first two games.

we did? wow, what's up with that?

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think I have ever met someone as results oriented as you.

[daryn]

you clearly have never met me.

[daryn]

also, i can't stand how people make the dumbest arguments. they say things like, "well even a 3 game lead isn't safe!! i mean hey, look what happened with the yankees this year!! LOL!! OMG!"

as if leading a series 2-0 isn't a huge advantage.

IT IS.

[hoyaboy1]

Hits can be magnified in the playoffs too, I think. I can remember a few biggies.

By the way - errors are an awful, awful, awful (did I say awful?) way to measure a team's defensive ability. That said, Boston still isn't very good defensively - luckily, offense, which they are great at, is far more important.