Mirage 5-10: Inducing a bluff on every street

I took a vacation from the bigger 15-30 games I've been playing recently and went to the Mirage for some 5-10 play.


In this particular hand, I was up against an aggressive player who wouldn't ante steal- a strange contradiction. He was on my immediate right. On several occasions, when I was the bring-in, it would be folded to him and he would only limp. Whether he had a strong hand or not, he would only limp on 3rd and always bet 4th. This happened three times before this hand came up and I always folded a trash hand on 4th street.


The third street board are:


(Qc,7h)4d ME!

(x,x)6s

(x,x)Jh

(x,x)9d

(x,x)Ts

(x,x)4h

(x,x)8c

(x,x)Qh


I bring it in for $1. Everybody folds to the player on my right who just calls with his Qh doorcard. If he had raised, I would have just folded and moved on to the next hand.


The fourth street boards are:


(Qc,7h)4d,Qs ME!

(x,x)Qh,2d


The perfect card! Then it occured to me- if I bet and he has nothing, he'll fold because I've got a tight table image. But, if I check, he'll see it as weakness and bet with nothing. On the very slim chance that he also has split Queens, he's probably got me outkicked and I'm drawing.


I checked here with the intention of checking on every street and checkraising when I hit two pair later.


He bet. I called.


The fifth street boards are:


(Qc,7h)4d,Qs,Kh ME!

(x,x)Qh,2d,Ks


I checked. He bet. I called. I thought about checkraising here since he's caught an overcard King. But, since I've got one too, the Kings are partially dead.


The sixth street boards are:


(Qc,7h)4d,Qs,Kh,Ad ME!

(x,x)Qh,2d,Ks,6c


I checked. He bet. I called.


Before the river card was dealt, I decided to bet out with two-pair or better and just check-call with one pair.


So, am I playing with fire?


Or am I taking advantage of my opponents aggressive tendancies?

Checkraise 5th or 6th.


Why wait till you have two pair?


I can see your reasoning for check-calling on 4th, but once you are at the big-bets it is time to raise!! Even if he has only a small pair you would still prefer to take the pot down b4 a showdown.


Rarely is a check-calling strategy correct in limit poker.


If he calls the checkraise continue to bet out, no matter what(as long as he doesn't improve), all the way through river.


Later,


CJ

i think this is an example of FPS. better to just take the pot with a bet on fourth if you can. since you played i fifth or sixth. is he the type of player who will actually bluff every street at 5-10. such players are rare.


Pat

If you had aces, or if a bunch of aces and kings had folded out on third, or if you had some backup for your queens (e.g., you started with a 3-flush) then I would like your fourth-street chicken-call a lot better. But as of fourth you have yet to see a K or A, so I think screwing around with two queens and no backup whatsoever is not such a smart idea. I think you should either bet or check-raise on fourth, depending how you read your opponent.


In any case, when your opponent catches a K on fifth you absolutely have to try to get him out now, because even though you also have a K, there's still too great a chance that he has or will pair up that K, and when you add the still-missing aces into the mix, that just makes things even scarier.


TRLS

I'm not totally against check calling 4th, and 5th, although i really would prefer to make a play for the pot either on 4ht or 5th.


Sixth street however you must either bet out or check raise. You have Queens and overcard kickers, and the check calling to date reeks of splits 4s or Queens with an Aces kicker the whole way, and with your table image you may now easily convince him you have Aces up.


Far better to try and take the pot now than pray to make 2 pair on the river, and give a crying call if you are still just sitting on Queens.

The best decision you made here was playing $5/$10, if this is typical of the way you play $15/$30.

As expected, nobody liked the way I played this hand.


On the river, I caught a blank and check-called.


My opponent runed over Ace-high with now draws and my lone pair of Queens took the pot.

Rarely is a check-calling strategy correct in limit poker.


Of course, I agree with this.


This particular hand was player & situation dependent. I was very sure he would bet on every street with nothing if checked to but would fold to just a single bet of mine.


Checkraising on 5th or 6th is a +EV play only if he has something to call with. If he is betting with nothing, I think it's better to let him throw his money away.

i think this is an example of FPS.


I don't know if fancy is the right way to describe my play. However, I was trying to milk every single bet possible out of a marginal hand.


Against a typical opponent or if it were a multi-way pot, I would have simply bet out (or checkraised). This was a unique situation where I thought I could get multiple big bets out of one opponent.

there's still too great a chance that he has or will pair up that K, and when you add the still-missing aces into the mix, that just makes things even scarier.


There are only two Kings left in the deck and there was no reason to believe he has an Ace. Even if he did have an Ace, he's drawing to just five outs to make just one overpair to my Queens. Adding the possibily, that I'll make two-pair when he doesn't, he's putting his money into the pot as a huge underdog.


Usually, I would play the hand in a more straightfoward manner as you suggest. However, in this situation, I was trying to exploit what I perceived as my opponent's over-aggressiveness.

The best decision you made here was playing $5/$10, if this is typical of the way you play $15/$30.


That's not nice.


I've posted three Bellagio 15-30 hands in the last few weeks. I've lost two of them. Feel free to respond to those hands and rip my play apart.


For the record, I'm doing well in my limited experience at the Bellagio 15-30 game. Although, I've had three full houses beaten costing me about a total of $1,500.


How do those 15-30 players beat my full houses?

well at least you caught him bluffing.


Pat

After the 4th street cards, there's about a 35% chance he has at least one ace or king.


After the 5th street cards, there's about a 30% chance that he has at least one A or K in the hole.


Those are the mathematical probabilities. When you consider that opponents who fold are less likely to hold these cards, and opponents who don't fold are more likely to hold them, you have to fudge the estimates up at least a little.


Even very good stud players tend to underestimate how often their opponent will hold a dangerous overcard. It's easy to fall into the "out of sight, out of mind" trap.


Yes you're a favorite, but I don't think you're enough of one to be slowplaying here.


TRLS

I've got Petriv's Hold'em Odds Book which is a great work on Hold'em odds. However, I haven't seen any comparable book for Stud. Do you have any reccomendation.?

I don't know of any other than Konstantin what's-his-name's. I haven't seen it so I don't know if it's any good or not.


I usually just calculate these things myself, sometimes with help from a computer program I wrote.


TRLS

was one that separates the "very good" player from the "expert" player.

Your play was more of an expert play--which is sometimes difficult for the "good" or "very good" player to comprehend.

I liked your play in this "heads-up"spot.

BTW,your table seemed to be too tight--Y didn't U look for a better game??

************************************************

*Statistics book on stud********

"Seven Card Stud Poker" by Konstantin Othmer


Happy Pokering

Sitting Bull

The game wasn't tight. It was just strange situation where I was the bring-in four times and it was folded around to the player on my right. The games in Vegas were extremely good over the St. Patrick's Day weekend due to heavy tourist activity for the NCAA basketball tournament. The Mirage was packed and had long waiting lists- a quick sign that the games are good.