Flopping top two - when to worry about a set [Archive]

View Full Version : Flopping top two - when to worry about a set

spacemonkey57

10-24-2004, 05:12 PM

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
1 fold, Hero raises, 1 fold, MP1 calls, 1 fold, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button 3-bets, 2 folds, Hero calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (16.50 SB) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (5 players)
Hero bets, MP1 calls, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button raises, Hero 3-bets, MP1 caps, CO calls, Button calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (16.25 BB) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 players)
Hero bets, MP1 raises, CO calls, Button calls, Hero calls.

River: (24.25 BB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets, CO folds, Button calls, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 27.25 BB
Main Pot: 27.25 BB, between Hero, MP1 and Button.

trumpman84

10-24-2004, 05:27 PM

I think you played it well...I think a lot of times you'll be beat by a set here, but I think just as many times you'll see an overplayed AA or AK.

the_rookie

10-24-2004, 05:28 PM

I think mp1 has a set of 4s.

SlantNGo

10-25-2004, 12:16 AM

I would play it the same.

ArchonsEngine

10-25-2004, 02:00 AM

I'd start to worry about a set of 4s when MP1 suddenly caps the flop after smooth-calling the first bet. Still, I'd probably bet out on a turn blank, too, to see whether he still likes his hand or not.

Actually, looking at the hand again, I'm starting to wonder whether MP1 had a strong draw he was capping for value--two others committed themselves to the pot already, so a nut flush draw (or possibly a smaller flush draw with an OESD or backdoor straight draw) might reasonably cap for value. The initial smooth-call could've been out of fear of knocking out the rest of the field, putting him heads up with someone who likely has at least TPGK (given the PF raise), but after the raise and 3-bet, he knows you're both at least seeing the turn. Anyone have thoughts on this thinking?

All that rambling aside, I'm curious to know what MP1 had.

--ArchonsEngine

Ajax410

10-25-2004, 05:02 AM

You think MP1 would force the field to call 2 bets on the turn with a flush draw? If he is willing to do that, then he is showing really good flop play with really bad turn play. I agree with the assessment that he has a made hand though - and 44 seems like a likely candidate. The hand could also be split with another KJ.

Ajax

ArchonsEngine

10-25-2004, 05:07 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You think MP1 would force the field to call 2 bets on the turn with a flush draw? If he is willing to do that, then he is showing really good flop play with really bad turn play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ummmmm.....whoops. Yeah, he wouldn't do that. My mistake--thanks for pointing it out.

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with the assessment that he has a made hand though - and 44 seems like a likely candidate. The hand could also be split with another KJ.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point about the possible split. I still want to know what MP1 actually had, though.

--ArchonsEngine

Ajax410

10-25-2004, 05:12 AM

Unfortunately I can't tell you /images/graemlins/smile.gif

The more I think about it, based on pure numbers, a KJ split is more likely than a 44 set. there are 2 other kings in the deck and 2 other jacks...and only 3 unaccounted 4's. It just seems like another possibility worth considering.

Ajax

spacemonkey57

10-25-2004, 11:38 AM

I lost the hand history, but my hand was good here. MP1 pushed his K9o waaay too hard. Button had QT, so I had no idea why he called the river.

PokerIsLife

10-25-2004, 12:23 PM

Man, PP is just crazy! I had thought that MP1 was slow playing a pair of JJ or KK preflop. Geez.