Bellagio 15-30: Rolled 7s- Misplayed or Unlucky?

I was in a good Bellagio 15-30 Stud game this afternoon. There were four players playing excessively loose. On this particular hand, I looked down on every Stud player's favorite sight- rolled up trips.


The third street boards are:


(x,x)3h

(x,x)4d

(x,x)7d

(x,x)8s

(7s,7c)7h ME!

(x,x)Kc

(x,x)Td

(x,x)Jc


The 3h brings it in for $5. The 4d calls. The 7d folds. The 8s raises to $15.


I had intended to raise myself. However, I'm not an advocate of trying to clear out the field and play rolled-up trips heads-up. I think they can handle much more multi-way action. So, I just called the raise.


The Kc made it $30. The next four players folded, including the bring-in and early limper. The 8s called and I called.


This time I just called instead of re-raising to avoid giving away the strength of my hand in a three-way pot. Raising to $45 would be an obvious signal that I could be a pair of Kings.


For more information, both these players were playing extremely loose the entire time I was there.


The fourth street boards are:


(x,x)8s,5s

(7s,7c)7h,9c ME!

(x,x)Kc,3s


The Kc bets. And both of us call.


Here's my conumdrum. With the Kc being the high board, I can't make a knock-out raise on any street. Instead, all I felt I could do is play the hand to the river and build as big a pot as possible.


The fifth street boards are:


(x,x)8s,5s,Jh

(7s,7c)7h,9c,Qd ME!

(x,x)Kc,3s,Ac


The Kc bet. The 8s called. I raised. Both players called.


The sixth street boards are:


(x,x)8s,5s,Jh,Qc

(7s,7c)7h,9c,Qd,Jd ME!

(x,x)Kc,3s,Ac,8c


Checked to me. I bet and both players called.


The seventh street boards are:


(x,x)8s,5s,Jh,Qc(x)

(7s,7c)7h,9c,Qd,Jd(5c) ME!

(x,x)Kc,3s,Ac,8c(x)


No full-house for me. The Kc checks. The 8s bets. I have to consider the possibility that he has made a flush so I just call. The Kc calls.


The river bettor turns over Queens full of Eights made on the river. I believe he started with (Q,8)8 and caught runner-runner Queens on 6th and 7th street.


So, is there any street in which I could have played the hand better? It always painful to lose big pots when you start rolled-up.

I don't think rolled 7's are strong enough. I would have raised on 3rd street. Your other 7 is dead so quads are out. As happned if you did full up there are many full houses that can beat you. Now if it were 10's on up I would have played as you did most of the time. However, I don't like the fourth card being out.

1. In a 15-30 game to call two raises with a dead 7 up the lat of which came from a king your opponents will probably consider a rolled up hand as a possibility. You are often better off raising since your opponents will likely put you on a big pair. This is not low limit where you always slowplay trips. But you are right that if you come over the top you are making it more likely that you have trips, although aces is a possibility. One advantage to reraising is that the pot is now so big that even if you fill you might get callers to the river.


2. Since you did not raise at all on third a raise on fourth might make your opponents think you have a four card straight and are making a free card play.


3. Otherwise i think you played OK. The winner probably misplayed his hand if he called a raise by a king with 8Q8. so maybe you got unlucky. Despite what i said above i doubt your opponents would have played differently if you reraised on third street.


Pat

U posts: U do not give only your winning hands,but your losing ones also.

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Let's assume: Player1 8Q8


Player 2 K2K


Player 3 7J7

If player 1 decided to call the raise from player 2,is it better for player 1 to have player 3 in the game or not??


Sitting Bull

I ran 1,000,000 simulations of each scenario...w/and w/out the 7s. The pair of 8s will win 36% of the time w/out the 7s and 28% of the time w/the 7s involved.


If the 2 person pot is worth say $100 (1/2 that yours) than you'll lose appx $16/time in this situation. If the 3 person pot is worth $150 (1/3 yours) than you'll lose $8/time in this situation. So, I guess it's better to keep the inferior hand in, but it's best not to be involved.

You had already ruled out a 3rd st. raise, and you indicated that both players were loose. But would re-raising the Kings (after the 8s called the raise) have perhaps induced a re-re-raise by the Kings, and maybe driven out the 8s?


I would prefer to play my 7s heads up with the Kings, but even if the 8s don't fold, I've got more money in the pot with the best of it.


Also, what do you think about this: the re-raise might make the Ks put you on buried aces, and your catching an Ace on board later might work to drive him out later in the hand (with him reading you for Trip aces).


Doc

performing the experiment.

I had a "gut" feeling that keeping 3rd best hand in would be better.

Thanks for proving it.


Happy pokering,

Sitting Bull

I like the way you played it. You can't come over the top on 3rd street. Like you said what can you have there to make that play against a king. He knows he has to be beat unless you are a maniac. 4th street if there were more players in i would raise there because i would want the KK's to 3 bet me and clear out some of the feild. Its ok if they call i don't mind, but i also don't mind if there calling such hands as a three flush but won't continue unless they pick up the flush draw. i want those hands out the pot would not be getting pretty big already. If they want to chase fine, but charge them the maximum. But this would be against many opponents. But in this 3 handed pot you got them right where you want them. I would also wait til the turn to raise. You just got unlucky. Gotta love the situaiton. 3 handed with the other 2 guys pumping it, and you rolled up. Keep playing it that way. Something tells me your gonna win some nice pots in future in similar situations.