Pokerstars Supersatellite

[Gotmilk]

8 spots pay $11,000. Your thoughts on this hand? :

*********** # 1 **************
PokerStars Game #795073000: Tournament #3070245, Hold'em No Limit - Level XIII (1500/3000) - 2004/10/23 - 23:46:01 (ET)
Table '3070245 8' Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: The Shrike (19008 in chips)
Seat 2: chalky (49662 in chips)
Seat 3: BigY (35840 in chips)
Seat 4: gizzimow (25410 in chips)
Seat 5: JohnnyPorn (39877 in chips)
Seat 6: gotmilk (24056 in chips)
Seat 7: farroutt (57252 in chips)
Seat 8: AKULA1 (112283 in chips)
Seat 9: tonyplo (16612 in chips)
The Shrike: posts the ante 150
chalky: posts the ante 150
BigY: posts the ante 150
gizzimow: posts the ante 150
JohnnyPorn: posts the ante 150
gotmilk: posts the ante 150
farroutt: posts the ante 150
AKULA1: posts the ante 150
tonyplo: posts the ante 150
farroutt: posts small blind 1500
AKULA1: posts big blind 3000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to gotmilk [Kh Kc]
tonyplo: folds
The Shrike: folds
The Shrike said, "hmmm chop?"
chalky: folds
BigY: folds
gizzimow said, "whats the skiing like over there Lee"
gizzimow: folds
JohnnyPorn: raises 5000 to 8000
The Shrike said, "someone takes 1200 from everyone?"
gotmilk: raises 15906 to 23906 and is all-in
farroutt: folds
AKULA1: folds
JohnnyPorn: calls 15906
*** FLOP *** [As 4d 3d]
*** TURN *** [As 4d 3d] [Th]
*** RIVER *** [As 4d 3d Th] [Tc]
The Shrike said, "never mind i guess"
gotmilk said, "you insane there bucko"
gotmilk said, "nh"
*** SHOW DOWN ***
JohnnyPorn: shows [Ah Ks] (two pair, Aces and Tens)
gotmilk: shows [Kh Kc] (two pair, Kings and Tens)
JohnnyPorn collected 53662 from pot
Lee Jones [observer] said, "Good match both player!"
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 53662 | Rake 0
Board [As 4d 3d Th Tc]
Seat 1: The Shrike folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: chalky folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: BigY folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: gizzimow folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: JohnnyPorn showed [Ah Ks] and won (53662) with two pair, Aces and Tens
Seat 6: gotmilk (button) showed [Kh Kc] and lost with two pair, Kings and Tens
Seat 7: farroutt (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 8: AKULA1 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 9: tonyplo folded before Flop (didn't bet)

[Ulysses]

Looks like a job for the bad beat police!

[Gotmilk]

[ QUOTE ]
Looks like a job for the bad beat police!

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a given. It's also a given that the guy with the AK made one of the worst plays in the history of poker, going from assured a seat to last place if he lost. I'm trying to figure out how good of an option folding was, given the other shortstack scenarios. What was my probability of winning? I figure about 80%? I'll bust out like 25% of the time when he calls with an ace-- But you have to figure he folds AK, right? If I win, im 99.9%. If I go all in and he folds, I'm over 90%. What if I just fold? What are my chances?

[Toro]

The problem is that you never know who you're playing with. The guy called for over half his chips with a drawing hand when he could fold into the money. Last week in a satellite for the Sunday Tourney I had a big enough stack to fold comfortably into the money and I folded AA preflop.

But despite the fact that you know in advance that you might get an idiot call, I think you made the right play. The blinds/stack ratio of the 2 stacks smaller than you were not yet at a point where they were going to be blinded out. In fact they both had enough chips that they would have some folding equity against almost everyone at the table.

So, since it could have gone on for a while, I think you had to play the Kings.

[familyteeth]

From your opponents perspective AK with T40k vs T24k
Against a pocket pair
22 he’s a 52 to 47 dog
thru
QQ he’s a 56.5 to 43 dog
He dominates if you make a move with AQ (unlikely) 72 to 23
He’s dominated to KK AA (also unlikely)
If he earlier pushed with a flush draw, he’s not laying down here.
He’s playing to win right now.

I push with KK and don’t worry about the rest

[Prime Time]

Tuff break, I was in the same tourny, and got my money all in w/ AA against KK and the K hit. Busted out 23rd, and if I won the hand would have been in 3rd. Did not even make the 18 where I would have gotton my $650 back.