Heads up 5 card stud hand

Online $2/4 game. 25c ante, $1 bringin.


I pick up KhKd, and my sole opponent picks up (x)Kc. He brings it in for $1, and i just call along, wanting to trap him.


On 3rd he catches the Ks giving him open Kings and i catch the lowly 2h. Nothing could have been worse, but i can potentially win a big pot off him here, as he would never believe i had Kings.


Now this player would likely have bought it in for the maximum if he held a strong hole card. I think any picture card he would've bet $2, and certainly with an ace.


How would you play the hand from here on in, assuming you play it at all.

This would be a good problem to run through Poker Probe, which unfortunately I don't have. But my gut feeling is that even if he has only a modest kicker, you're too far behind to play this hand with only two cards to come.


TRLS

After simulating 1,000,000 hands (giving your opponent a 9) it comes up that you win 43.36% of the time. Hope this helps.

I ran the million hand sim without assuming a downcard for the opponent. This says that you will win 41.56% of the time. I would call his bet on 3rd street, or raise if I picked up an Ace. This is because he will assume you have a pair of aces, and may fold (probably not?), and even if he does call, you are most likely ahead at that point. I would follow the same idea on 4th street. If I didn't pick up a high kicker or 2nd pair by 5th street, I would fold, rather than call the final bet.


--Homer J.


BTW, I am very new around here, so please don't bash my thoughts if you disagree. I would like to hear the thought processes of others, so that I can get better at thinking about poker...

No bashing, but if your opponent has any sense, and views you similarly, he will know that you have kings when you call his kings. So your implied odds are terrible - you can't win any $ on 5th.


Dan Z.

Just a note on the difference in winning %s: Homer's win % is smaller because he puts a random down card in. However, Mr. Peterson tells us that anything above a 10 is unlikely. I guess to be fair it'd be best to run a million sims for each hole card 2-9 and then average them out (w/the sim for the 2 only counting 3/4 of the rest.) I believe this is really too much of a pain in the ass for this topic. But I guess if someone's got 10 minutes of their life they don't mind pissing away...

As Dan Z points out, you're only possible hole card is a K (unless you're a terrible player), so you're in bad shape for two reasons.

1) He knows your hole card, but you've got no idea what his is.

2) He's got a better hand.


Ouch!

Well anyway i played the hand, because i actually think my opponent is a total idiot (i like playing heads up against idiots).


I made a J kicker on the river and raised him, and he was totally taken back that i had Kings. Anyway this put him on tilt as well and i took the rest of his money. Turned out he had an 8 in the hole. I thought my win % would have been slightly higher, even though i am playing in the dark (although so is he (remember hes stupid), he must have figured me for an Ace in the hole, or alternatively not thought at all).

Playing against idiots opens up a whole range of winning strategies.