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View Full Version : Bellagio 15-30: Go for a pure river bluff?


02-18-2002, 12:02 AM
Here's a hand from a Bellagio 15-30 game earlier today.


The third street boards are:


(x,x) 2c

(x,x) 7s

(x,x) 8h

(Qd,6d) 8d ME!

(x,x) As

(x,x) Jh

(x,x) 4c

(x,x) Tc


The 2c brings it in for $5. The 7s folds. The 8h calls. I call with my live 3-flush. The As raises to $15. This guy ALWAYS raises when he's got the highest 3rd street card and has actually raised on 3rd street about 1/3 of the time. I "knew" it was coming. The rest fold to the 8h who calls and I call. Three players see fourth street.


The fourth street boards are:


(x,x) 8h,4h

(Qd,6d) 8d,Ad ME!

(x,x) As,6c


I'm high board and choose to check. Usually, I'll bet my four flush. But, I want to see if this guy actually has Aces (blind squirrels...). The As checks. So, he's got nothing. The 8h bets. I think I just might be up against a smaller flush draw. I call. The As calls.


The fifth street boards are:


(x,x) 8h,4h,Qc

(Qd,6d) 8d,Ad,2s ME!

(x,x) As,6c,3h


I check. The As checks. The 8h bets. I call. The As folds. Yup, he had nothing. Heads-up going to sixth street.


The sixth street boards are:


(Qd,6d) 8d,Ad,2s,Js ME!

(x,x) As,6c,3h,Ks


I still don't even have a pair. And, my opponent hasn't made an open-pair yet. I wondered if my opponent had put me on flush draw.


I made a decision at this point. If I made my flush on the river, I was going to go for a checkraise. If I made any pair, I would check-call hoping to catch a bluff. If I completely missed, I would bet out- my first show of strength.


How often will betting out with Ace-high get somebody to fold? Is it worth attempting in this situation when I've put my opponent on flush draw?

02-18-2002, 12:41 AM
I think you played 4th street poorly. You want to check-raise, no matter who bets. Your hand is super strong, but you want to drive out someone or get them both to pay.


That said, raise him on 5th or 6th. Your hand is too good to be played meekly against this player.

If you think he has a draw, make him feel like he has to hit it to win. The best place is 4th.


If you are wrong, you lose a fraction of a bet. This could win you a very nice pot.


On the end, it's a lot easier for him to call with very little if he thought you were drawing.


Dan Z.

02-18-2002, 04:37 AM
Dynasty,


In this situation I would have raised on 5th and bet the whole way down... ( assuming you don't face anything threating on future streets of course )


Raising on 5th has several advantages here! It WILL MOST LIKELY get the original raiser to fold and possibly get you the whole pot right there.


If the other opponent calls ( or even both players) you still have plenty of ways to improve to the best hand. If the 8h was just betting a flush draw and he misses... he can't conceivably call a bet on the river if he hasn't improved significantly in other ways. If he was just betting a pair of 8s and also doesn't improve he probably still wont call. ( He might even throw away two small pair. I don't know the opponent ) This is why I like waiting to raise on the BIG BETS in this situation. I believe this allows more opportunities to win the pot.


I was in a very similar situation to this in a recent 10-20 game at Foxwoods, and I did the same thing on 5th. I raised... I did make the flush on the river and was called down by an opponent holding one pair. He chastized me in front of the table saying how poorly I played. Funny.. I had a $500 session that day...( I really do think I have 'I am big fishy' act down perfectly now )


Later,


CJ

02-18-2002, 09:47 AM
You really need to raise here on fourth street and then bet out on fifth street.


Pat

02-18-2002, 12:37 PM
I can't believe you didn't raise on 4th. If you wanted to be more deceptive about your hand a 5th st. raise would've been good too. after showing strength like this a bluff on the end might work, calling it all then firing seems a little desperate. I like raising on 4th because(considering the A next to you) that says "big 4 flush" so when you fire on the river you're announcing that you made your flush.

02-18-2002, 12:41 PM

02-19-2002, 01:13 AM
I missed my flush on the river and had only Ace-high to showdown. My opponent was already grabbing chips to bet before he saw his river card. I was first to act and bet myself. My opponent was rather surprised that I bet. He double-checked his cards, showed me his four hearts, and folded. My Ace-high was actually good so the bet on the river wasn't a bluff- it was a value bet. /images/smile.gif


Now, on to the subject everyone else wanted to discuss. Why didn't I raise on either 4th or 5th street? Simply put, I was playing with dead pair cards. I had already seen each of my cards in other player's boards and my 8s, 6s, and 2s were all small. It would have been difficult to win a showdown if I paired any of my cards other than my Ace or Queen. Therefore, I was happy to keep the third player in the pot while it seemed far more likely that I would hit a diamond than make a lone pair.


Once the 3rd street raiser folded on 5th street, the hand became easy to play. I put my last opponent on hearts so he wasn't going to fold to any bet or raise. He was seeing the river regardless of the action. So, I concluded the best place for me to make a move at the pot was on the river when he would either raise me with a flush made on the river or fold with no hope of winning with no pair (or little hope with one small pair).


I think a lot of the advice given in this thread was misguided. When you're playing a flush draw in which your suit is live but your pair cards are dead, I don't think you should be making knock-out raises. This is the type of hand which plays better multi-way than heads-up or three-way.


I'd like to hear some responses. Were people taking into consideration that my pair cards were somewhat dead?

02-19-2002, 01:54 AM
I think you need to absorb what the other posters are saying. By the way, your river "value" bet wasn't a value bet, it was a bluff that turned into a value bet only in retrospect.


If you're still out there Wednesday through Friday, I'll see you at the table.

02-19-2002, 09:08 AM
I don't have much to contribute except for a question: Do you think 15-30 is significantly different ("big stud") that playing a hand like this is different from how you'd play it at a lower limit ("little stud")? I'd be interested in seeing Mason comment on this hand for that reason.

02-19-2002, 10:23 AM
Yes, we are taking that in to consideration.


when you play hold 'em, and you have a bigger flush draw than someone else, and a 3rd player has unsuited high cards - say you have A9s and your 2 opponents have JTs and AQo, don't you try to get heads - up with the JTs? Now you will very often win even when you miss, as long as you don't get bet out of the pot. But if you are raising, this won't happen too often, unless your opponent is an expert or a goof.


when you say your A and Q are dead, you mean 1 of each are missing. This is still 4 more outs you have, and if you keep betting, you are a big favorite, and you make more money. You may also get your opponent to fold a small pair.


Say in the holdem example, the flop was K high. Even if the other draw makes a pair of tens, he may fold since you have represented a king. Not always, but sometimes.


What if in your hand, the order of the deal was J-you-maniac. Let's say the 6th card from the top of the deck is an ace. Let's also say that the maniac has a small pair, or no one bets 5th street, so the maniac is still there. Now he catches the ace, and you have to make a flush to win. But if you knocked him out on 4th street, that ace is yours on the river, and you can now catch a bluff or value bet aces on the end, at your discretion.


These extra chances to win are worth a lot more than one more caller for your draw, especially when your draw is exposed. This is another reason to get the money in early - if you catch another of your suit, the action may end or slow dramatically, and if you show a 4 flush, that's it. Get your value on 4th and knock out the 3rd player.


I agree that if knocking out all but one or 2 opponents is not possible, not raising will probably disguise your hand better, and making one pair is less likely to win. However, if you have a chance to either get heads-up or build a huge pot, you should do it - those opportunities may be gone by the tme the next card falls.


Good luck.


Dan Z.

02-19-2002, 03:01 PM
By raising on fourth street you might be able to get a free card. Also if you pair up you do not have to get a free card you can bet and you might take the pot. You still have enough pair card outs that you want to knock the other player out so if you catch an A or Q your hand will be good.


as you see, since your opponent had nothing you basically let him play to the end with little risk. this is a hand that you should and could have won earlier and you would be happy to do so. By not raising you allowed him to read you as weak which allowed him to play to the river and almost lost you the pot. You say that you could not win a showdown if you paired a small card but that is not true since if you paired on board your opponent(s) would almost certainly fold, and again you would be happy that they did so.


Another aspect is that if you get the hearts to fold then you gain a lot since in a heads up pot with four diamonds and two overcards you are a solid favorite. It is worth a shot to just knock him out if you thought there was a small chance that he would fold, as this is a classic semibluff.


Glad to see that you moved up and had success. Keep it up!


Pat

02-19-2002, 05:19 PM
I've got 3 1/2 hour experience at "big stud". Give me some more time. /images/smile.gif In the thread I started below, I gave some examples of differences between this 15-30 game and my usual 5-10 and occasional 10-20 game.

02-19-2002, 05:27 PM
Those Hold'em concepts don't apply here because I'm taking into consideration the exposed cards. The whole reason I didn't use a knock-out raise was because all my pair cards were falling on other players' boards but my diamonds were still remarkably live. Therefore, the value of my hand changed. It became a hand which preferred a multi-way pot rather than a heads-up pot.


And, your other reason:


What if in your hand, the order of the deal was J-you-maniac. Let's say the 6th card from the top of the deck is an ace. Let's also say that the maniac has a small pair, or no one bets 5th street, so the maniac is still there. Now he catches the ace, and you have to make a flush to win. But if you knocked him out on 4th street, that ace is yours on the river, and you can now catch a bluff or value bet aces on the end, at your discretion.


This is a silly arguement. So, I'll make a silly response. What if that same knock-out raise gives me a pair of Aces but also completes my remaining opponent's heart flush which he otherwise would have missed? Then, I'll regret making the raise.


C'mon. You don't make knock-out raises based on trying to change where the "good cards" will fall.

02-19-2002, 05:30 PM
did you miss your flush while getting a K ? If not, how could your Ace-high be good when he was showing AK ?

02-19-2002, 05:41 PM
By raising on fourth street you might be able to get a free card.


I'm first to act so it's unlikely I'm going to get free cards. Besides, when I've got a live AQ four-flush, I usually don't care about getting free cards.


Also if you pair up you do not have to get a free card you can bet and you might take the pot.




There was no chance of this. If you had the heart flush draw, would you fold simply because somebody made an open pair?


as you see, since your opponent had nothing you basically let him play to the end with little risk. this is a hand that you should and could have won earlier and you would be happy to do so. By not raising you allowed him to read you as weak which allowed him to play to the river and almost lost you the pot. You say that you could not win a showdown if you paired a small card but that is not true since if you paired on board your opponent(s) would almost certainly fold, and again you would be happy that they did so.


How can you believe this? He was never going to fold his flush draw simply because somebody raised him. Do you routinely fold four-flushes before the river? I can't imagine that.


The whole thrust of your arguement seems to be that my semi-bluff could actually get a live flush draw to fold if my board shows improvement. Do you play against opponents who will laydown flush draws. I don't.


The key to playing the hand correctly is to know that this opponent is going to the river regardless of how much heat is put on him. Knowing that, you decide when to make your play at the pot if your cards aren't going to hold up- ON THE RIVER.

02-19-2002, 05:49 PM
David's question made me look back at my original post and I found a mistake.


One 5th street, I wrote:


I check. The As checks. The 8h bets. I call. The As folds. Yup, he had nothing. Heads-up going to sixth street.


Then, I copy/pasted the wrong 6th street board. The correct 6th street boards are:


(x,x) 8h,4h,Qc,Ks

(Qd,6d) 8d,Ad,2s,Js ME


It was the heart-flush draw which stayed in the pot to the river (and who was NEVER going to fold his draw). The 3rd street As raiser folded.


UGH! I'm very sorry for this. I think it has definitely tainted some of the analysis.

02-19-2002, 05:51 PM
I always check my posts carefully. And, I did this time but this error slipped though anyway.


Thanks for being more observant than me.

02-19-2002, 10:55 PM
I might not but there are players who will especially weak players who know you are shooting for a higher flush. The last session I played someone folded a flush draw. Also on one of the hands I posted I played a flush draw when I shouldnt have and should have folded to a raise but did not. See my "overplaying a flush draw" post. There is little doubt that the correct play for me was to fold.


Pat

02-20-2002, 01:12 AM
I read it. These two hands aren't really comparable.


Of course, you should fold a flush draw when it's clear your opponent has made a better hand- whether it's a bigger flush than you're able to make or a fullhouse.

02-20-2002, 07:24 AM
Hello,Dynasty,

What did you and your opponent do on 6th St.??

Did both of you check? or did he check and you bet?

Did he bet and you called?

The play on 7th St. is a function of how the hand is played on 6th St..


Happy Pokering,

sitting Bull

02-20-2002, 06:20 PM
Two points.


First of all, you're bet on the river was bad. It cost you a bet. Your opponent was going to bet on a bluff. Your bet prevented him from doing that. You would have only been called if he had you beat. So you should have checked and called.


Secondly, on 4th street with 3 opponents you want to knock out the third guy. If the guy you think is on a flush draw actually is, then you have a good chance of being ahead of him. You should knock out the third guy and make the flush draw chase you. If this were run on a simulation as a 2 way vs. 3 way contest, I would expect the 2 way to come out far better for you. (maybe someone could do this).

02-20-2002, 06:29 PM
All the criticism of my play has been similar- I should have used a knock-out raise on 4th or 5th street to play heads-up. I gave my views against this in my responses. Put succinctly, I was playing with dead pair cards but live flush cards and preferred a multi-way pot.


I've never called on the river with Ace-high in Stud and find it hard to do so. I think there were two options on the river: 1) Betting out and hoping one pair will fold or 2) Check-raising and hoping one pair will fold. I did cost myself a bet by not check-raising.


But, check-calling with Ace-high against someone who thinks he's bluffing with one meager small pair is definitely wrong. I've got to put the last bet in and hope he folds.

02-20-2002, 07:32 PM
I agree with you that you are probably better off bluffing. but if you had any small pair yourself you should check and call.


Pat

02-20-2002, 07:48 PM
Hello,Dynasty!

What a good opponent will do on 7th St. will depend on what you do on 6th!

Did you bet,check? Did your opponent bet ,check??


Sitting Bull

02-21-2002, 12:00 AM
check, bet, call.

02-21-2002, 04:53 AM
Hello,Dynasty,

Since you bet 6th St. and continued your drive on 7th,I would have folded any pair.

Your play was excellent!

BTW, I agree with your argument about not trying to reduce the field. I do not see any benefit in knocking out your 3rd player with your semi-dead cards.

Nice hand!

Sitting Bull

02-21-2002, 05:28 AM
You've got something wrong. I was the high board. So...


I checked. He bet. I called.


My river bet was the first time I showed strength.

02-21-2002, 07:12 PM
If you were correct in putting him on a flush draw, there's a pretty decent chance he doesn't have a pair. If he doesn't, you probably have him beat. If you bet, he won't call you unless he has you beat. The only way I can think of that betting would make sense would be if you thought he hadn't put you on a flush draw. You were trying to bluff when there was too good a chance you had a better hand.


The problem with your thinking on the river in general, IMO, is that you thought the chances you were beaten were much greater than they actually were.


I like your idea of check raising. I'll have to think about it some more.


Going back to 4th street. The plan to play 3 handed would be correct if you're expected value would be greater with 3 people in the pot than with 2. If you were a flush draw playing against two other hands that weren't draws, you're thinking would make more sense. But a flush draw playing against another flush draw where you're ahead! That's got to be a lot better heads up then letting the other guy stay in the pot.


You've got the choice of:

a) Playing against 2 guys, 1 of which you're behind.

b) Playing against 1 guy that you're ahead of.


That's an easy choice. That 2 of your cards are partially dead doesn't change this.

02-21-2002, 07:29 PM
After thinking about it some more, I think you're idea of a check-raise is very good. You were checking along until 7th. If you check raise there it feels like you've set a trap for him.


If he had gotten a flush, it's not likely he would bet. You saw him reaching for chips, so you can be pretty sure he doesn't have the flush. Check raising would make him think you had caught him in a trap.


Betting is another story. Betting in that situation is a sign of weekness. If you had hit your flush, you would have let him bet and then raised him. So your betting means you didn't hit it. So he should have raised.

02-21-2002, 09:04 PM
I can't agree that betting is a sign of weakness.


Plenty of players will simply bet out with a made hand like a flush rather than checkraise on the river. I usually do it myself because I've found that many stud players won't bet the river with anything less than a straight.


When I miss on the river, betting is the safest approach. If all he has is one small pair, he may check behind me. I THINK he was going to bet because he was grabbing chips but I wasn't willing to risk it.


Quite a few stud players won't call a bet on the river with just one pair if they think their opponent was drawing to a big hand. Yesterday, I bet a pair of 6s on the river in a heads-up situation because I thought I wouldn't win the free showdown which was coming. My opponent folded pocket Kings (I thought she had 9s).

02-22-2002, 11:14 AM
I don't know what the circumstances were where you're betting out with 6's worked. That was obviously a good play since it worked.


Regarding the situation of this thread, he had been betting and you had been calling. He knew you could reasonably expect him to continue betting. If you had made your flush, it would be likely for him to expect you to check-raise. Since you changed the pattern by betting, that would mean you didn't hit it. So he should have raised your bet.


Of course it's a lot easier commenting on a hand after it happens, but this seems like a natural flow to me.


According to the Fudamental Theorem of Poker, you make money when your opponent acts differently than he would have had he seen your cards. In this situation, he acted the same (he would have folded had he seen your cards) and you acted differently (you would have checked). So in this particular situation there can be no question you made a mistake, given how the cards actually laid. Whenever you bet a better hand than your opponent and he folds it, you've made a mistake.


The question is, how should you have acted given the knowledge you had at the time. This is where I think your thinking may have been wrong because you were incorrect in assessing your chances of being beaten. Given your discription of the hand, I think you had about a 40% chance of having the best hand, which is too good a hand to bluff with.

02-23-2002, 04:15 AM
If you had made your flush, it would be likely for him to expect you to check-raise. Since you changed the pattern by betting, that would mean you didn't hit it. So he should have raised your bet.


This just isn't the way most people play. When somebody shows sudden strength on the river after check-calling all the way, it usually made he has made a hand worthy of betting. It is rarely a bluff.


Just to make sure I've got this part of my arguement made, the river bet was made, in large part, due to the fear that he was on flush draw but caught one small or medium pair. Many players will be their flush draws aggresively all the way but won't bet on the river if they miss and have been called all the way. They expect to be called on the river and will just be throwing money away. I genuinely feared him checking behind me and showing down a small pair to take the whole pot.

02-23-2002, 06:36 AM
Hello,Dynasty,

In that case,your opponent should have bluffed raised you on 7th.

Any player who checks 6th St. is usually weak. If your opponent had a "busted" hand with NO pair,his play would have been to bluff-raise you on 7th in case you are betting a winning weak hand--such as one small pair. .

If he were a decent player,he would know that you

were weak--maybe on a draw and didn't make your hand yet. You proved this by checking 6th(classical tell).

You also put him on a draw.

Since both of you "bust",the player showing more aggression on 7th will usually take the pot.

This last statement is a fundamental concept in poker strategy.


Happy pokering,

Sitting Bull

02-23-2002, 06:54 AM
Larry,


You bring up some good points... but for a bluff-raise to work you had BETTER BE SURE your opponent is weak( otherwise you are giving away 2 big bets ). Perhaps Dynasty's opponent put him on the made hand.. This all has to do with table image..


I like Dynastys river bet..


Later,


CJ

02-23-2002, 07:45 AM
Hello,Cj,

You would not make bluff-raises against weak players. You would make them against solid players like Dynasty or you!

If a "weak" player bets,he has a hand.

OTOH,if you or dynasty bets,there is a decent chance that he or you might not have what you're representing--especially if you show weakness by checking 6th Str.


Happy Pokering,

Sitting Bull

02-23-2002, 07:54 AM
Larry,


Thats where the table image comes in. I believe this was Dynasty's first time at the 15-30 game,therefore his opponents probably didn't make him out to be as strong a player as he is. Thereby making his 'betting out-- I made my hand' stategy bluff correct.


In other instances a bluff check-raise might have been the correct action. ( notice he did say his opponent might have bet )


Later,


CJ

02-23-2002, 08:01 AM

02-27-2002, 02:18 AM
"Whenever you bet a better hand than your opponent and he folds it, you've made a mistake."


I'm taking this out of context, but there are many times that you want your opponent to fold when you hold the better hand. If your opponent is getting correct odds to draw out on you, you want him to fold.

03-01-2002, 04:06 PM
The context is the bet at the end.

03-01-2002, 04:19 PM
Thanks for the explanation.


Would he have folded a small pair? Would he have folded had you check-raised?


I still don't see why people would interpret that last bet as a sign of strength (betting at the end when you've been checking). That's a classic bluff. If I had been leading, and someone all of a sudden bet into me at the end, I would be very strongly inclined to raise. "Why didn't he check raise if he really had a hand?" I would think. If I was re-raised, then I would think it probably wasn't a bluff (it would be a tough player that would bluff re-raise here).


I can think of two circumstances where the last bet would be seen as a sign of strength. I've been sandbagging a flush, and I'm afraid I'll lose a bet if I don't bet, so I bet. That's pretty lame. The other possibility is I bet hoping I'll be raised so I can re-raise. A weak opponent might do the first. A strong opponent could do the latter. Most opponents would fall in between and the bet would most likely be a classic bluff.

03-01-2002, 05:29 PM
Would he have folded a small pair?


Most players won't call the river with one-pair, especially if it's below Jacks. They can often be bluffed off a pot when you've missed.


Would he have folded had you check-raised?


Considering that he folded for the initial bet, I expect he would have also folded to a checkraise.


Most Stud players don't value bet the river with two-pair hands. I believe they fear getting raised by someone drawing to either a straight or flush. Therefore, it is much more common for a flush or straight made on the river to simply bet out rather than risk having it checked around.


If you regularly bluff-raise somebody betting out on the river for the first time, I suspect you'll be beaten a vast majority of the time.


Keep in mind that many of these players aren't thinking as deeply as you are here. They're just betting their hand expecting you to call.

03-01-2002, 06:01 PM
Well I guess the right answer is, as always, "It depends." It was an interesting hand, and appreciate your keeping up on the posts.

03-02-2002, 03:06 AM
Your welcome. But, no more! It's too difficult to scroll down this far. /images/tongue.gif


Earlier today, I bet a four-flush all the way to the river. On the river, I got raised. I almost 3-bet bluff but threw it (pair of 3s)away instead. I was thinking about this thread when I considered the 3-bet.


That guy had a pair 3s beat, right?