Poll, which situation do you like more ?

[Zelcious]

Party low limit NL Sng. BB 200.

[Phill S]

as chip % is the same, surely odds of winning equal on both. however your already in 2nd place in the second one.

im liking both, but i see no reason for the 3 way choice. only reason i can see is your likely to knock one out as much as the other shortstack is, therefor you should get heads-up approx 50% of the time facing a 1k opponant (assuming you do get heads up and you dont double em thru trying to do so).

perhaps someone more maths orientated can help answer this beyond guaranteed second is better than guaranteed 3rd where the odds of getting first are the same.

when i voted its 2-2, perhaps someone else can throw their hat in.

Phill

[Zelcious]

The reason that the 6000-1000-1000 situation is quite attractive is because both your opponents are a bit afraid of going out as third, so you can bully then quite a bit and are almost certain to win first. But if you only have a single opponent with 2000 in chips he's usually more willing to gamble a bit for a chance of taking home first.
My personal view is that atleast I myself will have a slightly higher $EV in the first situation than in the second. But it's just speculations. I was just interrested in what other people thought about it.

[Phill S]

hmm i like the theory of bullying opponants, but i just dont buy it. with 100/200 blinds, how many steals do you reckon will happen. withing one or two orbits one is all in, and if he doubles through on you, this means he has enough to play in from. what if they both do?

what if you simply get shite cards?

i can see both sides, and frankly im glad ill never have to choose because its not simply black and white, but i think the slim chance you get 3rd outweighs any bullying advantage you have. if the blinds were lower and so you can outplay them i see it a bit more however.

Phill

[Zelcious]

I thought about it too, if the chance of getting third, however small will outweight it. As a side note, one of my last tournaments I was in the position of 6000-1000-1000 and stole the blinds mybe 75% of the cases until both had around 200 each. They both practically gave away the chance of being first.

[Phill S]

sometimes people simply aim at second in these situations (i would do it if my cards simply dont cut it).

and im all for it when im huge stack, but i think its more the exception than the rule.

however, funnily enough i remembered a game the other night where i tripled through on hand one, then worked up to 8K before level 3 (deck simply broke my back it hit me that hard). i bullied them hard and most of them decided to let me knock the others out.

so it can be said that in qualitative terms if youve shown to be aggressive, willing to put them all in just to take a shot at knocking them out, then i guess the 6-1-1 could be more profitable. but again, i dont think this can happen enough to make it the better choice.

you need to face two players perceptive enough to realise you want to knock them out, and not good enough to realise if they want to get second they need to make a move, and if they want a slim shot at 1st they is no question of making a move.

Phill

[lorinda]

I don't think the 3rd place scenario makes as much difference as if it were 6000-666-666-667, THEN it becomes attractive.

Lori

[DCIAce]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think the 3rd place scenario makes as much difference as if it were 6000-666-666-667, THEN it becomes attractive.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

I was going to say the exact same thing. This is dead accurate.. I'd take 6000-700-650-650 over 6500-1500 in a heartbeat.