My toughest river decision in months

[Schneids]

Edit to add: SB is also a fairly big LAG

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Schneids is CO with 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG folds, MP folds, <font color="CC3333">Schneids raises</font>, Button <font color="purple">(big LAG)</font> calls, <font color="CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, BB calls, Schneids calls, Button <font color="purple">(big LAG)</font> calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="CC3333">Schneids bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">big LAG raises</font>, SB calls, BB calls, Schneids calls.

Turn: (10 BB) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, Schneids checks, <font color="CC3333">big LAG bets</font>, SB calls, BB calls, <font color="CC3333">Schneids raises</font>, big LAG calls, SB calls, BB calls.

River: (18 BB) A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, Schneids calls, <font color="CC3333">big LAG raises</font>, SB calls $3 (All-In), BB calls,
I seriously sat and let the timer count down as I debated... 3-bet, or call?

[NoTalent]

What are you putting him on? I would 3-bet suspecting a rivered 2 pair or just Ax. I might put the SB on a x3 but you can take the side-pot from the LAG.

[NLSoldier]

[ QUOTE ]
I seriously sat and let the timer count down as I debated

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And by debated he means asked NLSoldier for his expert opinion. Unfortunately NLSoldier wasn't too sure either but was pretty surprised by the river action and the hands that were shown...

[Guido]

Button is a big LAG, SB is a fairly big LAG... uhh why do you raise PF?

I would probably 3-bet. I think BB doesn't have a straight because he didn't 3-bet and I put button on AT or A5. Although he might have something crappy like T3s...

Thanks,

Guido

[bunky9590]

Well, Bunky three bets him there. But blind aggression gets me in trouble sometimes.

if he has the 3 god bless him.

[fsuplayer]

You already know my response Mike. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[gonores]

I'd 3-bet, but I wouldn't like it. Unless you think the BB is a complete tard.

[Your Mom]

I'd 3 bet and I really don't think it is all that close. If BB has a 3, then he is reraising the river. If LAG has AA, then congrats to him.

[Dov]

[ QUOTE ]
Button is a big LAG, SB is a fairly big LAG... uhh why do you raise PF?

[/ QUOTE ]

My thoughts exactly.

Also, why did you bet the flop? Did you think you were still a favorite to have the best hand or are you setting up a future play?

Dov

[Schneids]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Button is a big LAG, SB is a fairly big LAG... uhh why do you raise PF?

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Also, why did you bet the flop? Did you think you were still a favorite to have the best hand or are you setting up a future play?


[/ QUOTE ]

Hoping to get HU as I saw it very likely one of either button or SB would raise my bet. I also deemed it a mediocreish chance that I had the best hand.

[Schneids]

[ QUOTE ]
Button is a big LAG, SB is a fairly big LAG... uhh why do you raise PF?


[/ QUOTE ]

It is what I do /images/graemlins/smirk.gif. Call me a cocky arrogant prick but I think that even if I get 3-bet by a LAG, with or without position, I will find a way to make 22 profitable against their 3-bet.

In all seriousness, even at this table, a lot of the times my open raises were ending up with the pot HU. I'll take my chances with a pair (and probable position) HU.

[Schneids]

The possibility that BB has a straight and only called the LAG's river raise to induce an overcall from me?

Unless BB is a tard monkey, he knows I don't have a straight, given my flop bet, turn c/r, and then river call. Although I know nothing specific about BB, I really, really hated being bet out into on this river after all the aggression I showed on previous streets.

[kiddo]

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Quote:
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Button is a big LAG, SB is a fairly big LAG... uhh why do you raise PF?



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It is what I do . Call me a cocky arrogant prick but I think that even if I get 3-bet by a LAG, with or without position, I will find a way to make 22 profitable against their 3-bet.

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Ok, but then you should probably raise almost any 2 from CO because 22 is breakeven against any 2 cards if it was showdown preflop and there is no way to know if a LAG is hit or not hit because he comes in with a lot of trash and he will not fold, so 22 against any half-decent LAG is losing because you will almost never know if you are ahead or not but the other one will pretty often know it, making you play the same every time and he can shift gear depending on boardcards.

[Danenania]

This makes sense to me. Also since Nate found in his simulation that 22 is only barely profitable on the button for a steal at 15/30 where steal conditions are more optimal, wouldn't it dip into the red at 10/20 in the CO?

[Schneids]

Dead money already in the pot gives me a little more leeway to make it +EV. Excessive action when I make a set is the bonus and why I think playing 22 this way pushes it into a raisable hand. I could very well be wrong though.

[samdash]

Your opponents will sometimes incorrectly fold the flop with 2 overcards to your 2's simply because their hand appears terrible compared to the board. Is this considered in the simulations that say 22 is breakeven vs. a random hand?