another 10-20 hand

Given the prior "limp gone bad" hand, I was faced with another similar hand where I raised. My opponent was the one who was on tilt and had just had a yelling match about a bluff that was called.


I was dealt AcQc/6d. Sound familiar? This time it was folded to me and I raised and was called by the 6c up. On fourth street I catch the 10c and my opponent catches the 2c. I bet and he calls.


Fifth street I catch the Ad he gets the 5c. I bet and he calls. Sixth street I get the 7c and he gets the 3c. I check he bets and I raise, he calls.


On the river I caught the 7d. I bet and he called and showed down a flush in clubs. HE says "How many clubs do I have to get before you know I have a flush."


All comments welcome. I felt this was a very interesting hand.


Pat

Hi Pat,

I don't like the check raise on 6th street. I'm not sure what you have accomplished by doing that. He will call with a flush or a straight in this spot and if he was a good player, he should reraise. He has position and because you don't have a pair he knows you are not full.


If you check and call, and check the river, he will almost certainly bet the river. You can get your raise in there if you catch your flush or call to pick off his bluff if you make 2 pair or still have Aces.


You put in 2 bets on 6th as a small favorite or a big dog. I think the agression you showed was misplaced.


I am curious as to what his other 2 hole cards were. You should have been able to glean even more info about this opponent for the future.


As an aside, to answer his question I would have said "5".

Hi Pat - Me again. Anyway, I wouldn't have played the hand. I would have folded on third street. I don't like the starters.

I think the only way I would play this hand is if the bring in was immediately on my left, and I was raising on a steal. You dont really give a sense of how many people folded to you and how many were left to act after you.

you wouldnt even try to steal? if not i think you are playing too tight. your hand is a good steal hand especially since if you pair the A or Q it will be hidden and your opponent will keep playing.


Pat

i was second to last with only the opponent after me.


Pat

That makes a difference. I might try and steal depending on my mood, but I still don't like the starters. I wouldn't really second guess myself for folding, but when things get tricky with the bluff, I might second guess myself for bluffing and losing on the river.

I think stealing here is a good move, since your hand has a lot of value against a random hand. Especially if your opponent was tilting.

I just ran your hand vs. a random hand (50000 times) with a 6c door card, and the results were:


AQc 6---51.4%

xx 6---48.6%

I've got no real problem with that. But if stealing is what you're attempting to do, I'd rather do it against someone who is NOT tilting and more likely to fold immediately, rather than someone more likely to hang in and simply create a horserace. Who says his hand is any more random than yours, tilt, or no tilt.

Funny to see your simultaneous post. Any way based on your experiment, not much of a difference in randomness.


Todd - What program do you use to run such experiments. Looks like an extremely valuable tool?

I don't play this high, so my comments are obviously not from experience. But I think the steal is fine here in the position you're in if you're ace and queen are live. What I question is continuing to bet when you don't catch good on fourth. Yes, your three flush is something but not much there. Why not just check and fold if your opponent bets into you or take a free card if he checks it along? I think the key to playing hands like this for a steal is not getting sucked into staying with them when you don't catch exactly what you want on fourth. I'd look for a better gambling opportunity...

I cant take credit, I got it from a thread below. Should be linked at the bottom of this page. The program is there.


For stud, be sure that you change the switch from 8 or better to high, since the default is 8b.


I have, in a week learned a lot, just putting hands in that I would play, and see how they turn out. Especially situations where I might be keen to play a 9-T-J against an over pair and some one else. Lots of interesting stuff to learn.


Try it out, and see what you think. It might be fun to post some of the things that we learn in a newe thread.


Todd

Hello,Pat,

I would have check/call 6th and 7th.

On what Str. did he connect with the flush?


Sitting Bull

Hello,Pat,

You have a very playable hand heads-up or 3-way.

So you have more than a steal hand. You played it correctly on 3rd to reduce the field.

You do not want more than two opponents in with you on 4th if you connect with a big pair.


Sitting Bull

Hello,Todd,

Because of your statistics, the hand would be a folding one in a small no ante game.

However,since there was some dead money in the pot on 3rd.,Pat played the hand correctly.


Sitting Bull

Hello,MRB,

I agree with you that to string along with an unimproved hand beyond 4th Str. is classified as "gambling".

We need to strive to take the "gamble" out of the game.


Sitting Bull

I think the check-raise on 6th was misguided. If he hasn't made anything yet, you risk giving up a free card. If he has made something, you may wind up putting in 3 bets to see 7th street if he reraises your check-raise. Since you have some of his clubs, I think you should just bet on 6th and plan to fold if he raises, unless he would bluff-raise here often enough that it's profitable for you to call (don't forget to include the chances of his outdrawing you).


TRLS

The reason to keep playing is that i may have three overcards but certainly have two. Plus if he just called because he thought I was stealing then there is a good chance that I will win the pot on fourth street if he has little. When ever you steal and have an overcard in a heads up situation against someone who did not raise you it should be an automatic bet. Certainly you will agree that checking and calling is the worst play. My hand is not weak and folding is not the correct play either.


Pat

I dont know. he would have me believe that he made it early, but I doubt it. My guess is he made it on the river.


Pat

AT the time I felt that I could risk the free card since I thought he would bet. I agree that this might not be the best play generally, but in this situation aginst this player I was virtually certain that he would bet. Plus i felt strongly that he did not have the flush and i had enough of his clubs that i was a solid favorite. But that doesnt necessarily mean i played it right.


Pat

As I said, I don't play these limits and I understand that it's easy to get run over if you play too conservatively in higher games, as opposed to lower limits where you can often check and get a free card. Nevertheless, here's my basic point: you raised as a steal with high cards, you didn't connect on 4th and your three flush is 8 to 1 or worse to make a flush here. If you're one of the better players in the game, why not just check and be ready to fold rather than press a slight advantage (or a possible disadvantage if he's paired), especially against a tilter who probably won't fold when you bet. You're basically negating your skill and knowledge by getting into it when you don't have much the best of it. In general, I agree aggressive play wins. But I question your selection of this hand against this player for this size pot.

you are only focusing on the threeflush. What about the fact that I have two overcards wither if which might be enough to win the pot if it pairs. Plus, and this is important, by betting here you set up a possible steal on fifth street. Many players at this limit will call on fourth and fold on fifth with very little, and against such a player you can bet with impunity on fifth no matter what you have.


Against this player it might be the wrong play and that is one of the reasons why I posted this hand. I think there were many nuances here. For example, what do you think of the fact that he is playing for a flush when i have three of his flush cards out, plus two overcards and the highest club?


You need to focus on the other aspects of your hand in properly evaluating it and there is a lot more to this particular hand than just the value of the three flush which makes it even more likely that I will win if I catch the pair since my opponent is playing undercards and a dead suited flush.


Pat

If you're certain he will bet regardless of his hand, then I think you should check-call rather than check-raise. The idea is to avoid putting in three bets when you don't know where you stand.


The chances of his already having the flush are a lot better than you probably think. At this point there are about 36 unseen cards, so there are (36x35)/2 = 630 possible 2-card combinations he could have in the hole, of which (31x30)/2 = 465 or about 74% don't contain a club, meaning there's about a 26% chance that he has already made a flush. Since his play so far is consistent with chasing a flush, I think you have to bump that figure up much higher. Then you have to add the possibility of his not having the flush but making it on the river when you don't improve, plus the possibility that he might also have a straight or straight draw, or trips. You are still the mathematical favorite, but not enough, I think, that you should risk putting in three large bets to see the river.


TRLS

I didn't mean to imply the three flush was your only value, just that when you don't pair on fourth I'm not sure it's a good spot to keep betting. I think a big part of the value of continuing to bet comes from stealing when neither of you improves. Because this player was on tilt and was going to chase (as you point out) you're probably not going to induce a fold easily. My perception is that while you may well have been ahead here, you're not ahead by much. So if you're not likely to get a fold and you don't have much of a hand or much of a draw, why invest a lot of money? Wait for better cards and take advantage of the fact that this guy's a calling station. Let him draw to his flush when you have two pair on fourth street -- and hope he makes it as you redraw to a full!