$3-6 hand, pushing AK real hard

[Michael Davis]

I think this is an interesting hand, and I like every decision I made here. Tell me why I am wrong.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="666666">3 folds</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 <font color="purple">(Confusing Fish)</font> calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls, MP2 calls, MP3 <font color="purple">(Confusing Fish)</font> calls.

Flop: (8.33 SB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Confusing Fish raises</font>, Hero calls, BB calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (8.16 BB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, MP2 checks, <font color="CC3333">Confusing Fish bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB folds, MP2 folds, Confusing Fish calls.

River: (12.16 BB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Confusing Fish checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 12.16 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 12.16 BB, between Confusing Fish and Hero.</font>

-Michael

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
...I like every decision I made here. Tell me why I am wrong.


[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe you can tell us instead why you liked coldcalling that flop with nothing more than tainted overcard outs.

[Michael Davis]

I didn't want to threebet because I wanted to raise a non-heart turn. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

-Michael

[Derek in NYC]

I like nothing about this play other than the preflop.

First, you call 2 cold on the flop with no pair and no backdoor draws. You literally have only overcards, and on a two-tone flop no less. With 6 outs (even assuming they are clean, which they are not since you cant like the hearts too much), you are a 7:1 dog to make the outs on the next card. The pot is paying only 5:1, so the call is EV negative, and that is assuming you are not three bet by the guy who led out. Finally, note that you are overcalling not only a bettor, but a raiser. Confusing fish or not, he must have something better than you.

On 4th street, you raise the aggressor, again with nothing except 6 outs (which may or may not be clean), and only 1 card to come. This time, however, you have succeeded in cutting your odds down to 4.5:1, on the same 7:1 dog draw. Another -EV move, and again, assuming you dont fear a reraise.

Having raised on the flop and fourth street, you now proceed to check the river after confusing fish shows weakness. At this point you have nothing. You can only beat a busted draw. If he has a pair and you check, you will lose. However, there is a slim possibility that in fact fish has only a busted draw, or perhaps something less than top pair that he will lay down, fearing an overpair. The pot at this point is paying you better than 12:1 to bluff, yet you do not. In order for this bluff to be EV positive, you need succeed on your bluff less than 10% of the time. Yet you check, thus essentially ceding the pot.

Accordingly, other than your preflop play which was fine, I think this hand was misplayed from start to finish.

[DesertCat]

I might cold call the flop because after all you have AK, which means your outs are a little less tainted. But fold the turn, save yourself 2BB to fight another day with a better hand. If you have to bluff the turn, bluff the river...

[Michael Davis]

I wouldn't have coldcalled the flop if I wasn't planning on raising the turn.

-Michael

[Derek in NYC]

But this just reduces the odds you're getting even more.

[Michael Davis]

What about the odds that my turn raise gets the pot heads up against a worse hand?

-Michael

[Barry]

I think that only Mike I. could get away with this kind of flop and turn play at his 100/200 game. But of course he would have bet the river.

[Derek in NYC]

How can you possibly think that confusing fish has a worse hand? He raised the flop, and led the turn? You are clearly WAY behind.

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
What about the odds that my turn raise gets the pot heads up against a worse hand?


[/ QUOTE ]

Why would you assume based on that flop action that you will have a reasonable opportunity to go heads-up with a worse hand? Furthermore, I assume that by calling MP3 "Confusing Fish" you are saying that you don't really understand his play. However, since you didn't say he was LAG, I have to assume that he can read the board, and that at least one or both of those players are ahead of you right now.

[pokerkai]

I think you can cold call the flop, although id like to be closer to closing the action. Pretty easy ditch on the turn with only tainted overcards left.

[Michael Davis]

Yes, his play was very inconsistent. He was also down to around $30 of his initial $150 buy-in.

How often do I have to have the best hand here to make it right? Does that number change if Clarkmeister posts the hand?

-Michael

[Michael Davis]

Tell him he should come look at the hand.

-Michael

[Barry]

Problem is this is 3/6 not 100/200, you're not going to get confusing to lay down his hand with the checkraise. And since he bet the turn, he's probably not on a draw. Fold the flop and get on to the next hand.