The Three Brick Syndrome

I would like your analysis on this 15-30 7-Card Stud Hi-Lo hand. I don't recall what the up-cards were. I am concerned about fourth, fifth and sixth street. There are two opponents, Young guy (YG), Grumpy Prop (GP) and myself (Hero). I am the $5 Bring-In, $2 ante and 8 players ($21 pot).


Me: Ah7h/ 2 Bring in

YG: XX/ Q Raise ($15)

GP: XX/ 5 Call

Me: Ah7h /2 Call

Reasoning: I have a decent low, and a hidden suited Ace to beat the queen.

$10 to call $43 pot ($3 rake)


YG: XX/ Q, 4 Bet

GP: XX/ 5, 8 Call

Me: Ah7h /2, 6 Raise

Reasoning: I want to make it heads up against the queen and pressure the 8,5 low to fold.

YG: XX/ Q, 4 ReRaise

The queen is adding pressure to the 8,5 low, which I truly appreciate.

GP: XX/ 5, 8 Call

Me: Ah7h /2, 6 Call


YG: XX/ Q, 4, J Check

GP: XX/ 5, 8, 6 Bet

Me: Ah7h /2, 6, Th

The table has turned! He comes out betting now that I have a brick showing.

Reasoning: Now I have a 3 flush as well as a decent 4 card low. Any 3,4,5 gives me a better low (about 9 outs after dead cards) plus my hearts are pretty live (I don?t recall how many were dead).

Me: Ah7h /2, 6, Th Call

Question1: Is this correct to call? Is this a fold on Fifth?

YG: XX/ Q, 4, J Call


YG: XX/ Q, 4, J, X Check, Call

GP: XX/ 5, 8, 6, A Bet

Now I am in trouble. The queen looks dejected, probably only one pair. GP is happy and betting into both of us.

Reasoning: One of my Aces is dead. But now I have a 4 flush that might save me. I need a 3 or 4 of hearts! The pot is large and it is only one more bet to see the last card.

Me: Ah7h /2, 6, Th, Jh Call

Question 2: Is this call plain studid? In Ray Zee?s Hi-Lo Split Poker Book on page 55 he says that you should frequently fold on sixth street. However, the last paragraph says: ?it is OK to call in those spots where you have a good draw, a flush draw, or trips, and you are getting the proper odds.?

why do you want GP to fold on 4th street? So you can chop with the Q? GP is the action here, if you're raising because you think he can't let go of an inferior 4 low and you want the EV, great nice raise. but I really don't think he's the one you want to fold. If the Q would let go that'd be great, probably not going to happen though.


As far as the rest of the calls, I don't feel like calculating outs + pot odds to work out if you ought to be calling or not(barely bother for my own hands, certainly not going to for someone elses); but it feels like you need to definitely call on 6th, 5th I'm not so sure.


hope you hit the low/flush and pissed them both off.

sadly if you did hit your low I'm guessing it lost to a 6 low.

"YG: XX/ Q, 4 Bet

GP: XX/ 5, 8 Call

Me: Ah7h /2, 6 Raise

Reasoning: I want to make it heads up against the queen and pressure the 8,5 low to fold."


I want to lock low and free roll on the queen with my ace. Make sense?


$83 pot to $30 raise: 2.75 to 1, is this correct? Or is this giving 5.75 to 1 odds to my opponents making it correct for them to call?

OK, on 4th, you are correct to jam - you can get HTH with the Q and have a nice freeroll, and you have the best low.


On 5, I think you should fold. You are beat both ways, and the other low has a redraw to beat your low. also, he could have a straight draw, or an ace, and the Q could have 2 pair. I see no reason to continue.


On 6th, you have a 4 flush, which may win half if you hit. You also have a tiny shot at a scoop.

But you coudl also flush and lose to a fh if the Q is still in - they probably fold 1 pr on 5th if they are a good player.


If your suit was not very live, I would fold on 6.


Dan Z.

It does make sense, but if you make the low I think you're practically on a free roll to the A whether he's in or not, considering that right now he's drawing to an 8. Your view is certainly valid, but I'd like to have him in there.

You should have folded on fifth.


First of all, your low draw isn't all that swell. Your opponent apparently has a made 865 low, which gives him a possible draw to a 65, and you have a draw to a 76. So even if you make a low on the 6th street, your opponent still has a chance to outdraw you on 6th or 7th, and if he does it on th, you won't know it. Plus, unless he specifically has 72 in the hole, he can't have a low without having at least one of the cards that would help you.


Second, you are overrating your chances of winning the high half, and GROSSLY overrating your chances of scooping. The odds against making a runner-runner flush are huge, and some of those combinations give you only the high half of the pot. A pair of aces might win the high side, but if you make a pair of aces, you've given up one of your two chances to fill your low.


TRLS

GP: XX/ 5, 8, 6, A / X Bet

Me: Ah7h /2, 6, Th, Jh / K Fold

YG: XX/ Q, 4, J, X /X Call

I was in good shape on fourth street and caught 3 bricks in a row (The Three Brick Syndrome). This hand really bothered me because my intuition told me I made a mistake. I was doubled up in chips before this hand and I think it tilted me. I ended up with a losing session.


The Surprise Ending:

GP: 7,4 / 5, 8, 6, A / X Straight to the 8

YG: XX/ Q, 4, J, X /X Mucked


I want to thank all the respondents. I realize now that I should have folded on fifth and certainly on sixth. This is a leak I must patch.


I reread Ray Zee's chapter on Fifth street. At first I thought that someone else must have written it because it was in both upper and lower case. But upon reading it's concise text I realize it is certainly the words of a Pro:

page 54:

"By the way, if you have any doubt as to whether you should continue playing or fold on fifth street, you should fold unless you have a good chance for half the pot or a decent chance for all of it. If you have only a decent chance to win half the pot and you routinely keep playing, you can expect to go broke."

Or:

"chase a low lose your dough."