Coin Flip Situations with Average Stack around Bubble Time

[DONTUSETHIS]

Here is a Hypothetical Situation for you folks. Lets say that you are at about the average stack in a tournament and are either just inside the money or on the bubble. Somone who barley has you covered moves all in on you and you are sure that if you call with your pair or two overcards that it will be a race. If you call and you win, it will put you in the chip lead and if you are wrong you are out. Do all of you like to put your money in in these situations or avoid them and wait for a better spot. My thinking is that if I am playing to win I have to take this risk and This will give the best chance to win. What does everyone think?

[Cleveland Guy]

I think your post is missing a couple things. Mainly stack sizes compared to the blinds. It also depends on if I acted fist and raised, or I haven't put any money into the flop, or if I'm on the BB.


Let's say stacks are deep, and we both have more than 15xBB. I am folding this almost every time. I can get a better edge, and still have plenty of chips with which to make a move with.

If stacks are between 10-15x BB I think it all depends on what I might have done already. If I raised for 3xBB, and he pushes all in, I might call as I have a fair amount in the pot. If I have put nothing in so far I am probably folding

If I have only 5-6xBB left. I'm all in.

This of course assumes you "KNOW" it's a coin flip.

[sportfreak]

Yeah there are some things that do need to be answered, but I'd like to know how much the buy-in for this tournament was, how much your normal buy-in for a tournament is (i.e. compared to your bankroll), & what is 1st place worth vs. where you'd bust out at?

If this is small buy-in tourney that doesn't impact your bankroll, I'd call and go for the gusto. The main goal of any tournament is to win, but in a small buy-in tournament usually the final table is the only place with decent prize money, so getting to the final table in a small buy-in tournament is key. In a larger buy-in tournament, the 2nd, 3rd, and sometime even 4th tables pay out a good amount, so you're goal should be to just survive.

You're situation is pretty vague (I know you're looking for a general suggestion), but in a small buy-in ($3-$10), I'd call in this situation looking to go for the win. In a $20+ buy-in tournament I'd fold any potential coin-flip situation at this point, especially since you are around the average stack, which means you aren't in danger quite yet.

When seriously considering a coin flip though, lean towards calling with the pocket pair and folding with the overcards. A pair vs. 2-over cards is usually around a 55/45 favorite, this is termed a coin-flip, but overtime the pairs will hold up more often than the overcards will draw out.

[fnurt]

The mistake is ever thinking that you "KNOW" it's a coinflip. It's easy to put your opponent on a pair when you have big cards, and put him on big cards when you have a pair, but in the real world you always have to include the chance that you are wrong.

[SossMan]

This really depends on what average is. I think average stack size ranks down there for factors that I consider relevant. If the average stack size is 5x blinds then my decision would be different than if it was 50x blinds.

[Sam T.]

A key issue is, I think, how confident you are with your ability to move up the ladder if you don't take this coin-flip. In short, how good are you compared to the competition?

I made it to the final table in my second ever MTT ($30 on Party), and it quickly became clear to me that I had no business shuffling the cards for these guys, let alone playing against them. If someone had offered me a coin-flip to double-up I'd have taken it in a heartbeat. A good player would not need to take the chance.

[esbesb]

So long as you have folding equity left, why would you ever want to CALL your money in on a coinflip unless you have overlay that makes it worthwhile?